Alec Burks Season Preview
We continue moving through season previews. Once again, there will be overlap between this and my initial Alec Burks piece but we will live with that. Sorry nothing came this weekend I was feeling quite under the weather.
About Last Season:
Burks spent last season with the New York Knickerbockers. He split time between the bench and being a starter (played in 81 games, started 44). He played 28 minutes, scoring 11.7 points, grabbing 4.9 boards, and dishing 3 assists per game. He took a huge amount of his shots from deep with 53.4% of all his field goals coming from beyond the line. he hit 40.4% of those shots.
The Knicks flopped last season after being a feel-good success the previous year, but Burks was one of the few players on the roster who didn’t seem to regress.
Burks arrived in Detroit this Summer along with Nerlens Noel in a salary dump to create space for the Knicks to sign Jalen Brunson.
If he’s one of the guys who didn’t regress and based on your other writings regarding him, why did New York dump him?
Purely a salary thing. They would’ve almost certainly preferred to dump Evan Fournier but Fournier makes more money over a longer time. In the deal, the Pistons effectively ate the salary in exchange for moving the Bucks' future first (acquired in the Jerami Grant deal) for the Knicks pick they used on Jalen Duren. If we assume that Bucks’ pick ends up somewhere in the late 20s, the Knicks effectively moved back between 10-15 spots in the draft (and several years later of course) to unload almost $20million which is actually not that steep a price to pay. So even though Burks and Noel are useful players that, all things equal, the Knicks would’ve rather kept, but they were the only salary to move without giving up an arm and a leg.
Offense:
Its possible you’ve lost track of Burks over the last few years. He started off his career as a promising slasher in Utah but injuries derailed his career and when Burks finally landed with the Knicks two years ago they were his 6th team in three seasons.
During the time his career seemed teetering on the edge, he reinvented himself. Previously a gifted slasher who couldn’t figure out how to shoot, pass, or play overly effective defense, leaving him in the dangerous position of “unquestionably talented but probably not a winning player”. After several years of injury trouble and moving around, he is now an elite shooter from deep. Burks has shot 40% from deep on high volume over the past three seasons. He still doesn’t really pass, isn’t much of a defender, and his slashing abilities are diminished a bit, but the shooting will keep him in the league longer than most would’ve guessed a few years ago.
As indicated by the above shot-chart, Burks has diminished as a slasher somewhat. His shooting percentage inside the arc dropped to a career low of 39% last season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. His combination of quickness and strength is still effective and illustrated by him retaining an ability to get to the line despite taking so many shots from deep. His free-throw rate last season was 36.3% (free-throw rate, for anyone unaware, is the number of three-throws you shoot for each field-goal attempt you take) which is insane for someone taking so many threes. For reference, that mark would be just behind Jerami Grant (37.1%) for second on the team among regular rotation players on the Pistons last year, with 3rd being Kelly Olynyck all the way down at just 31.1%.
What if those numbers mean nothing to me because I’m a real hooper and not some nerd.
Burks is not as effective scoring inside as he used to be, but he’s still strong for his position and got some wily veteran in him so he still gets to the line a ton which means his drives are still an effective source of offense.
This should all be a boon for the Pistons. Burks should instantly be the teams best shooter by a wide margin (barring major improvements from one of the youngins). The arrival of Jaden Ivey and Cade being a year older should mean his ability as a slasher won’t be as needed as it would’ve been last season but it will still come in handy. Most notably, despite the plethora of wings on the roster, none of them are near as proven as Burks as both a floor-spacer while also being capable with the ball in their hands. Guys like Saddiq Bey or Isaiah Livers can shoot but have been limited to creating for themselves, Ivey and Cade are (or should be, in the case of Ivey) killers with the ball but questions about with their shooting.
The one real downside for Burks on the offensive end is that he is effectively a non-passer. His inability to pass lowers his value as an offensive hub even with bench units and means that despite being effective with the ball in his hands, he should always be paired with a proper point guard.
Lastly it is worth noting that with most role players that the Pistons could’ve added, there would be real fear around how they would look in what is likely to be a disjointed and likely ineffective offense. Burks, however, comes from the Knicks so not much fear there.
Defense:
Unremarkable. Even at his athletic peak he lacked the discipline and focus to be a high-level defender. He’s cleaned up some of the rough edges but he isn’t as explosive as he once was. His size means that he can at least hang with wing-scorers physically and is enough of a veteran to mostly do the right stuff, but he isn’t going to do much to raise a defensive unit.
Normally this would be completely fine, as time has gone on I’m increasingly of the belief that having 5 guys on the floor like Burks, unremarkable but effective defenders, is actually more valuable than having prime Tony Allen. The problem is that the Pistons are utterly lacking in defensive wings with the departure of Jermai Grant which means, unless Ivey or Cade are miles better than expected, Burks will likely be forced into the role of wing-stopper on many nights. This isn’t Burks fault, but don’t act shocked with basically every one of the league’s many elite wing-scorers puts up big numbers. I’d compare it almost to Marcus Morris back in 2015. A tough defender who can do some good stuff and at least show some fight, but when push comes to shove he is simply not up to the task against the league’s best. Also, Burks isn’t as big as Morris which isn’t good.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
A good question. My opinion remains that the Pistons will want Ivey to start unless he really struggles in the preseason. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they have Ivey coming off the bench early in the season just as a way to ensure he is mentally engaged, but unless something goes wrong Ivey should be the starter for most of the season.
With that said, it should be noted that if the Pistons were actually trying to win games then Burk would unquestionably be starting over one of Ivey or Bey. As outlined above, Burks is the most proven all-around wing the Pistons have on the roster.
Speaking of Saddiq Bey, I wonder if perhaps Burks is going to come into play there. Bey has largely been uncontested as the small forward of the Pistons despite quietly being mediocre last season. Even if just as a tool to try and jolt Bey awake and into better play, I do see a scenario where Burks is taking minutes from him. Once again, over the last two seasons, Burks has unquestionably been a better player than Bey.
All that said, the Pistons probably want Bey and Ivey to start since they are rebuilding and not too worried about winning yet. Even in that situation, Burks is likely to be the heaviest used substitute on the team and will play major minutes. And even if its off the bench, Dwane Casey will use him to push Bey and Ivey as an option to steal their minutes on nights where either one loses focus.
Where does he fit on the floor?
Spacing the floor for ball-handlers, shooting heaps of threes, and occasionally chipping in with drives to the hoop and the steadying hand of getting to the line.
Worst Case Scenario:
It is worth noting that despite a healthy campaign last season, Burks has been hampered with injury issues regularly in his career. In 5 of his 8 seasons, he has played in less than 60 games and been below 50 games on 4 of those occasions. So while “he gets injured and barely plays” is a cop-out worst-case scenario because that’s obviously the worst case for anyone, it is more of a concern for Burks than most.
Other than injuries though: The shot regresses some, meanwhile last season’s drop in effectiveness inside the arc was a sign of things to come. Burks goes from looking like a wily, but still effective, veteran to just looking old this season. The same thing is true on the defensive end and Burks ends up being little more than a body to eat up some minutes. After the season the Pistons decline his option and he’s out of the league.
Best Case Scenario:
He shoots lights out, even rebounds a bit as a finisher, and is an integral part of a surprisingly fun Pistons team. His combination of shooting and slashing stands out and he even takes to his newfound defensive duties with abandon.
Heading into the Summer the Pistons pick up his option with the knowledge that he has real value as a trade chip or simply returning as a valuable rotation player depending on how things break.
Official Prediction:
Burks doesn’t exactly set the world on fire but his shooting is a godsend for a team that needs it. He isn’t effective enough to avoid some griping about him taking minutes away from young guys but he is good enough that the griping is minimal. It’s purely a hunch and not at all based on any conversations I’ve had with anyone, but I really feel that Saddiq Bey will have a big impact here. If Bey gets off to as miserable a start as he did last year, things are going to get uncomfortable fast when Casey puts Burks into that spot and things immediately improve.
Ideally of course, Bey plays well and we never have that conversation, but I’ve just got a hunch that’s in the cards.