Big Ten Football Preview: Part 1. Big Ten West
Why are we starting with the Big Ten West this year?
Because I totally forgot that A FUCKING CONFERENCE GAME BETWEEN NEBRASKA AND MINNESOTA IS ON TONIGHT (thursday). So yeah, two Big Ten West teams are playing tonight so I better do the Big Ten West first. I have Thursdays off of work so I was like “Oh I can just write both halves on my day off and it’ll all be good” but alas.
Are you going to actually keep writing college football stuffs this year?
That’s the plan.
As with last season, part of these previews will rely upon the betting markets over/under for win totals. Also as with last season, I want to emphasize that this is mostly a convenient way to gauge general expectations for these teams, if a sportsbook someday does decide to give me money I won’t turn it down but for now the official stance of this publication remains that the only smart bet is to not bet.
Iowa: O/U 8.5
Iowa leads us off, tied with Wisconsin for best over under in the west and generally being viewed as the tentative favorite in the west. There are a few factors at play for why Iowa is the favorite here. For starters, they still have an Iowa defense. Cooper DeJean may be the best defensive back in the conference, they run a great scheme, are disciplined, and more talented than their “ho hum just Iowa with a bunch of no-name guys” reputation has always suggested.
Iowa has had a championship-level defense for the last few years only to be let down by steadily larger amounts by the offense. They have some improvements to the offensive side that we will talk about, the the strength of this team remains its defense and that is still the selling point. To push the whole “This defense is going to fucking smother everyone they play” point further home, consider this:
Their non-conference is a pair of not great G5 teams (Utah State and Western Michigan) and an Iowa State program that has struggled on offense even at the best of times but now also lost multiple starters to the gambling probe going on.
The Big Ten West is a division that is also bad offensively even at the best of times. But the entire conference is either replacing important starters at important positions (Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue), or replacing starters at important positions while also breaking in a whole new offensive system (Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Purdue may actually fit better here tbh), or the sort of putrid that it doesn’t matter either way (Northwestern).
Their cross-overs from the East are Penn State (who will probably be very good but are also breaking in a young, first time starter against an Iowa defense that thrives on confounding young, first-time starters), Michigan State (who was bad offensively last year and then lost their best wide receiver and starting QB to the transfer portal), and Rutgers (they are Rutgers).
I do not intend to be insulting to any programs and most likely at least one or two of these teams that are breaking in new starters/systems will end up being good. But if ever there was a season for a dominant Iowa defense to wreck shit from start to finish, this is it.
What about the offense?
Oh yeah, and the offense probably won’t be as awful as the last couple of seasons. They brought in Michigan transfer Cade McNamara to play QB (who is supposedly cleared to play after taking a knock but may sit out the Utah State game as a precaution), and he was joined by fellow Michigan transfer Eric All. They even added an Ohio State wide receiver in Kaleb Brown.
The worry is that the offensive line may still be ass, which would be problematic for the non-mobile Cade McNamara behind it. But the overall talent/competency level of the offense is almost certainly higher than the last few years.
Why they will go over the win total:
Look at it this way, the last three regular seasons have seen Iowa go, a combined, 24-8 (6-2, 10-2, 8-4) while having genuinely one of the worst offenses in the entire country because their defense is incredible. The defense should still be that good, but if the combination of a few good transfers and maybe even the coaches getting their act together a bit more (because Brian Ferentz is officially on the hot seat) to allow them to even reach “just a normal amount of bad” this team should waltz to 10 wins.
Why they will go under:
The biggest issue with the offense may have actually been the offensive line. Iowa has long been bad on offense but the thing that typically held them together was that they usually had solid line play and at least one or two NFL linemen on the team at any given time, Tyler Linderbaum was the last dude they had and he was the only guy on that line and after he left last season they had no one and don’t figure to have anyone again this year. They may have made decent improvements but if the offensive line is bad and the coaching is still bad it may not be enough to overcome a terrible offensive line.
The secondary thing to question here is, as much as I outlined that many other teams in the west have question marks, what if they are not as bad as feared? We will obviously be covering the rest of them below, but for instance, Purdue may have lost Jeff Brohm but there is a good chance they upgraded the QB spot by adding Hudson Card and they are still going to run the air-raid with Grahm Harrell as the OC and it wasn’t like the team was stacked with talented players last season. You can make a similar case for several other teams in the west, so maybe Iowa ends up being a solid team in a division with several of them.
Pick: Under
I don’t think this is a slam dunk but I do think that Iowa’s defense is the most proven commodity in the division and their schedule is favorable.
Wisconsin: O/U 8.5
There are some distinct differences but the basic principle in Wisconsin remains the same as Iowa. For multiple seasons Wisconsin is a program that has fielded championship-level defenses that have been dragged down by horrid offensive play. Some major changes to the offensive side of the ball brings optimism that they will be much improved after going just 6-6 last season.
After that basic principle, this is still very different because Wisconsin fired their head coach last season. Luke Fickell is now the head man after leading Cincinnati to huge success and the Dairy Raid is upon us. At a glance Fickell is not going to be directly responsible for huge change in look at Wisconsin. He has run more modern offenses but he’s still a defensive coach first and foremost and while his teams have thrown more than Wisconsin has, he still likes to run the ball. The biggest change in look on the field will come from the combination of new offensive coordinator Phil Longo who was brought in from North Carolina, and the addition of the gunslinging Tanner Mordecai at QB from SMU.
Mordecai will probably be the best QB at the program since Russell Wilson, which isn’t saying much but still, and Longo is decidedly not a power I-form running coach. One thing that some people have misunderstood is that Longo will not automatically be passing the ball a ton, he did that the last couple of seasons at North Carolina but that’s because he had Drake May at QB. When he’s had an awesome running attack he’s run the ball a ton and even has a season with two 1,000-yard rushers in the same season. The main difference is that they will run far more plays than previously and when they pass it will probably go over better because it will be a competent Power 5 QB making the passes.
Why will they still run the ball so much?
Braelon Allen is still probably the best back in the country and they still have a Wisconsin offensive line. Even with the changes Allen remains the best weapon in the offense and Longo’s history says that he basically takes the high-school approach of “I’m just going to put the ball in the hands of my best player 30 times per game and roll with it”.
Another parallel with Iowa is that Wisconsin has a favorable schedule. Like Iowa they have a pair of “meh” G5 teams (Georgia Southern and Buffalo) along with a probably not that good P5 team in Washington State (although Wazzu did beat the Badgers last season and they are almost certainly better than Iowa State is). The in conference play Wisconsin is stuck with Ohio State instead of Penn State but like Iowa it dodges the other two powers from the East and instead gets Rutgers and Indiana. Even if you chalk up Ohio State as an automatic loss that’s about as good a draw as you can hope for from the East. The other benefit Wisconsin has is that if the division does indeed come down to Iowa and Wisconsin, when the play each other it will be at Camp Randall.
Why they will go over:
Tanner Mordecai has a chance to be the best QB in the division and Braelon Allen is already the best running back in the division and the offensive line isn’t cheeks. Not unlike Iowa, when you look at the schedule they’ve got 8 games that they should be multi-score favorites in: (Buffalo, Wazzu, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern, and Nebraska) which means to get to 9 wins they need to win just one of Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State, or Illinois.
Why they will go under:
The transition is significant enough to keep things from going smoothly. As much as I like Tanner Mordecai he will have multiple games against defenses that will be better than he ever saw playing in the American so maybe he will disappoint. There is also a real existential question of whether or not it is possible to have an effective defense opposite a Phil Longo coached offense due to the high-pace of play.
Pick: Over
I really believe in Tanner Mordecai and this schedule lines up incredibly well. I think that there is a very good chance this division will come down to the Iowa/Wisconsin game and I think that Wisconsin feels like a better bet there and over the course of the season because on offense their line play and Braelon Allen are the sort of known commodity on offense that Iowa lacks.
Minnesota: O/U 7.5
This may be the trickiest one of the bunch. On one hand Minnesota has quietly been a highly consistent program that has outperformed its win total the last two seasons. Their defense is secretly almost as good as the Iowa/Wisconsin titans at the top of this division and there is real reason for hope with their new gun-slinging Greek Rifle QB, good wide receivers, and a mauling offensive line.
On the other hand, they are 87th in the country in returning production and are replacing two LONG time tent-pole offensive contributors on offense with Tanner Morgan and Mo Ibrahim both departed. Athan Kaliakmanis is getting good buzz as possibly being an upgrade over the “very much a game-manager” Tanner Morgan but he’s still a new starter and doesn’t have Mo Ibrahim to hand off to. The other concern is that its really starting to feel like PJ Fleck’s RPO offensive scheme has been caught up to by everyone else and is starting to get figured out by defenses as the last two years saw it pretty much just become a run offense.
On top of all that is that this schedule is not nearly as favorable as the two above teams. From the East Minnesota is stuck with Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State. MSU isn’t as scary as the other two but they are probably still much better than Indiana or Rutgers are. Oh yeah Minnesota also goes on the road to face North Carolina in the non-conference.
So to sum up the schedule, they basically have one extra loss than Iowa and Wisconsin by default because they play both Michigan and Ohio State while also not getting either of the walk-over programs from the East. In addition, they play a far harder non-conference opponent that is on the road (also quietly face a pretty good Eastern Michigan team that has knocked off a couple of P5 teams recently). And they do this while having a roster that, on paper, looks like a step below the other two. Not great.
Why they will go over:
As much as anything this is a program play if you take the over. Since PJ Fleck took over the Gophers have gone:
5-7
7-5
10-2
3-4 (COVID year so grain of salt)
8-4
8-4
Even if you don’t toss out the COVID season that is a consistent program. Fleck is utterly insufferable but its hard to not admit that he’s built a very nice situation there. In addition I have real hope that the Greek Rifle will be a nice change of pace.
Why they will go under:
Huge turnover on the roster combined with a very difficult schedule is a bad combination and this season is effectively a rebuild season for the program where they hope to build for a bounce-back next year.
Pick: Under
I think Fleck has done a good job, I enjoy the fact they have made Minnesota a mini-Wisconsin that just mauls people on both sides of the ball. The schedule is brutal and I think the Gophers should be happy to make a bowl game this year and then be well set up to get back to their usual levels next year.
Nebraska: O/U 6.5
Matt Rhule has arrived and Nebraska is starting fresh. I am a little bit worried about this because I think this is one of the easiest picks in the division and I won’t pretend to have a deep knowledge of this roster that has had a bunch more turnover. By most accounts the defense will be bad, They were decent the last couple of years mostly due to tons of experience but much of that is now gone. In addition at previous stops where Rhule became a success, it was miserable his first season as he spent time building the culture he wanted. 2016 was the last time Nebraska won even 6 games and there are not many transfer names or breakout candidates on the roster to suggest this team will make a big jump. THEY WON 3 AND 4 GAMES THE LAST TWO YEARS.
To make matters worse, the Schedule isn’t awesome. Colorado might suck but they are a P5 program and they will at least have a ton of good vibes early in the season, they don’t get either of the bottom feeders from the East and instead have Michigan, Maryland, and Michigan State.
Why they will go over:
Basically, every team in the Big Ten West has big changes and real question marks. Maybe Matt Rhule and his staff can just get Nebraska well organized and competent enough that while the rest of the division flails away with their big changes Nebraska quietly mauls teams with their running game and a disciplined defense to get 7 wins.
Why they will go under:
They were awful last year and I see no reason for them to be hugely improved. They will likely have one of the lower-end defenses in the conference, the offense is lacking in talent, and they didn’t draw a cake-walk schedule.
Pick: Under
When I play the schedule game here, I need to give them wins in each game I think are even close to toss-ups (Minnesota, Michigan State, and Purdue) to get to 7 and I think that all three of those teams should probably be the favorites. I think this team is more likely to end up 3-9 than 7-5. Maybe I’m totally off-base, maybe this over-under is juiced by Nebraska fans who want to believe. I think there is good reason for long-term optimism under Rhule, but not this season.
Illinois: O/U 6.5
A program in a similar position as Minnesota. They were solid last year (although it should be stated Illinois was not only better than Minnesota last season, they were probably the best team in the west) but lost some key contributors on defense, their starting QB, and talisman running back. Like Minnesota they have a good base on both lines, have real hope at the QB position with Luke Altmyer, and their running back due of Josh McCray both did nice things in limited time behind Chase Brown previously. The Schedule is not a cakewalk, a non-conference game against Kansas suddenly looks far more challenging than a couple of years ago, they draw Penn State, Maryland, and Indiana from the East, they have to go to Iowa and Minnesota but do get Wisconsin at home. They also have some coaching turnovers with stud defensive coordinator Ryan Walters taking the Purdue head job.
Altmyer is a huge wild card here. He was a 4-star top 100 recruit coming out of high school in Mississippi and spent the last two seasons as the backup for Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. He lost the starting battle to USC transfer Jaxson Dart last season and now he’s at Illinois. On one hand, he’s a highly touted recruit who has had a couple of years to learn as a backup who could be the best QB Illinois has had in years, on the other hand, he presumably failed the win the starting gig for a reason and in his limited snaps didn’t look very good. If Altmyer can be an improvement at QB the Illini will have a good chance at repeating last season’s success, if he’s a disappointment the offense will likely hold back a defense that should still be very solid.
Why they will go over:
The defensive line is dominant enough to keep the defense at an elite level despite losing Devon Witherspoon and friends from the secondary, Luke Altmyer is an upgrade at QB which pairs well with some secretly talented receivers and the offense is solid again but with more reliance on passing.
Why they will go under:
Ryan Walters really was working some secret sauce and even if the defensive line is good Illinois simply isn’t the type of place that can shrug off losing 3(!) players from their defensive backfield to the NFL (yes. 3 defenders from the Illini defensive backfield were drafted this Summer). In addition its clear that Altmyer is a cast off for a reason and the offense looks listless without Chase Brown to fall back on and the limp through the season.
Pick: Over
Tentative but I think Bret Bielema is doing a fine job here, I love that Illinois looks solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and I think the offense will be fine enough to get them to 7 wins. The team will be worse than last year but last years team may have unironically be the 3rd best team in the Big Ten if not for a couple of tough losses. I think this program is genuinely going places.
Purdue: O/U 5.5
The Post-Brohm era begins in West Lafayette. Breaking in a new coach and a new QB will be interesting, also Purdue has historically been a program that has rarely succeeded with defense-first which makes the decision to hire a defensive coordinator as their head coach a little bit scary. The good news is that Ryan Walters instantly made Illinois tough defensively when he arrived there, and even though Brohm is gone Walters hired Grahm Harrell as OC who will keep a similar offensive identity. Perhaps the best news here is that they got former Texas QB Hudson Card in the transfer portal, Card was a highly touted recruit who actually played quite a bit at Texas and generally looked pretty good. Unlike the previously mentioned Luke Altmyer who was beaten out by guys who didn’t look great themselves, its not hard to see why Card couldn’t overcome a loaded Texas QB room that featured Quinn Ewers and now Arch Manning.
The bad news is that this schedule is tough. Purdue plays 2 power 5 schools in their non-conference for some reason as they will go to blacksburg to face Virginia Tech and then host Syracuse, oh and the G5 team they are playing is Fresno State which is one of the strongest G5 programs in the country. You can be optimistic and say that Virginia Tech has been a disaster, Syracuse isn’t that good, and even if Fresno is a good G5 program they are still a G5 program that Purdue should probably beat. But at the very least it is hard to see them coming out of those thee games at 3-0 and 1-2 is very much on the table.
Which is extra bad because in the Big Ten they will have to face both Michigan and Ohio State (in addition to yearly rivalry with Indiana as a small respite). There are lots of new pieces in this program and they get no cake-walk games early-on to sort them out before they start their conference slate by facing Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio State in successive weeks. The main worry here is that things could spiral quickly, if they do struggle in the non-conference there is a real chance they start the season 1-6.
Why they will go over:
For all I said about the non-conference, none of those teams are that good just none of them are “directional state”. IF Ryan Walters and company can get Purdue playing at a level around where the team was the last couple of seasons then they probably should win those games, Fresno is probably taking a small step back, Virginia Tech is a mess, and they should’ve beaten Syracuse on the road last year. IF that happens suddenly things look far less daunting because they finish the season with what should be almost certain wins against Northwestern and Indiana. Meaning that if they can go 3-0 in the non-conference, they need just 1 win otherwise (with games against Nebraska and Minnesota circled here) to go over on the total and make a bowl game.
Why they will go under:
They will probably lose at least one of their non-conference games and if the season starts to spiral and the team loses juice we could suddenly be looking at Northwestern and Indiana as competitive games at the end of the season.
Pick: Over
Partly a homer pick but mostly based on that I genuinely think Ryan Walters is so good as a DC that Purdue’s defense won’t be a tire-fire and I think Hudson Card is legit. Even with my homerness though this is a very tight one. 5.5 is a good number and I think the season will likely swing on the Syracuse/Nebraska/Minnesota games.
Northwestern: O/U 2.5
I don’t want to talk about this mess. Under.