Big Ten Football Review: Week 3
Michigan 59 - UConn 0
A hamblasting of the order that you would expect. UConn made this worse by making several critical errors, from an unforced fumble, to a blocked punt, to allowing a punt return for a touchdown.
JJ McCarthy was statistically stellar again, throwing for 214 yards on 12 yards per attempt but he did have a couple of plays where you were reminded that he’s a true sophomore making his second start. Most notably one play where he rolled out to the right before throwing the ball right to a spot occupied by a UConn linebacker. The good news is that he threw it so hard that most linebackers are not coming down with it but its still a good reminder. On the other hand, its also almost heartening that he had a couple of those moments just as a quick reminder to him that he isn’t invincible before entering Big Ten play.
Very little else of note here, Cade McNamara got hurt in his brief appearance so if JJ takes a knock in the next few weeks it’s a bit scarier but other than that Michigan leaves one of the weakest non-conference schedules I can remember in pretty pristine condition. It’s hard to take much from these three games given how bad the teams are, but it’d be hard to dominate the opposition more than they did.
Michigan State 28 - Washington 39
Not quite the worst outcome MSU could’ve had, but it was pretty close. This game was not as close as the final score indicates as MSU scored 14 in the 4th quarter when the Huskies had it in neutral.
Michael Penix shredded the Spartan secondary until later in the game, heavily implying that the Spartan secondary may not be meaningfully improved on last season and until a pair of late-game scores the offense was ineffective.
You can’t just write off the late game scores
It is true that it isn’t fair to totally write them off. It isn’t like the Huskies had their backups in. That said, games in college football often reach a lull where this sort of thing happens. It’s enough that if you want to be an optimist you can say that Michigan State just took a while to find their footing offensively, but beyond being a narrative the coaches can use it’s hard to look at it much.
Of course, the secondary wasn’t the only concern. For starters, despite having some good moments, Payton Thorne continued the trend from the first two weeks where he didn’t look all that sharp. His 323 yards took 42 attempts to reach (good for just 7.7 yards per attempt) and he could’ve had more than one interception. He did have some excellent throws and a couple of excellent drives but the downs in his play remained way down.
Connected to that, and probably the bigger offensive issue is that Michigan State could not run the ball. Michigan State managed just 42 yards on the ground on 29 carries. Jalen Berger averaged just 2.1 yards per rush. This connects with Thorne’s issues as it seems clear that he is simply being asked to do too much. Thorne clearly doesn’t suck, he can make some incredible plays with his arm and legs, but he looks like he just isn’t sharp enough to pick apart a defense that knows he is going to pass. If State can get some ground-game going and get back Jayden Reed (who was out with an injury) he could look far more effective, but he just isn’t the caliber of QB to carry a successful offense on his own.
There are a two things that can give some hope that this game isn’t indicative of a long season coming
Washington may actually end up being really good. Despite going 4-8 last year, there is talent here; they massively improved the QB spot, and Kalen DeBoer has an excellent track record as a head coach. It’s entirely possible that Washington wins 10 games and MSU just got thumped on the road by a really good team.
Jaylen Reed, very likely the Spartans’ best player, was out. He probably isn’t enough to swing this game, but he provides an offensive threat that the team otherwise is totally lacking. If he gets healthy the offense is far more potent.
Do you see this as a bad omen for the rest of the season?
I’d lean that way. Next week they host a Minnesota team that hasn’t played anyone good but has been dominant. If the Gophers go into East Lansing and do the Spartans like Washington just did it is panic time.
The main concerns remain the same. This Washington game seems to confirm that the secondary is not improved in a meaningful way and that Payton Thorne has not taken a meaningful step forward. To call back to my preview, I based my optimism in Michigan State largely in a combination of Thorne making a big step and Mel Tucker flexing his coaching muscles on the secondary. But after their first real test the secondary seems about the same and Thorne has regressed if anything.
The other concern is that this performance now makes the next run of games pretty concerning. As stated before, Minnesota looks very good and has re-found effective offense with Kirk Ciarrocca back at the helm and a healthy Mo Ibrahim. After that is a Maryland team that doesn’t look that good but can certainly sling the ball around enough to be a threat with this secondary, then they host ohio state, then they host Wisconsin and finish the stretch off with a trip to Ann Arbor. If they don’t right some wrongs it’s easy to see them coming out of this stretch 3-5 or even 2-6 before getting into a soft stretch of the schedule. If that happens the wheels could come all the way off for a genuinely disastrous season. On the flip side, if they do make the needed adjustments they can be in a position to be just fine.
Why wait for the Minnesota game to go into panic mode? Some MSU fans are firmly there already.
Because, as stated above, Washington may actually be really good, that’s a tough place to go on the road, and they were without Reed. If a Gophers team that is probably just “good” at best comes into East Lansing and lays them out there isn’t much excuse. Perhaps more accurately, hard to see much hope of competing in games against ohio, Michigan, or Penn State if they can’t beat an untested Minnesota team in East Lansing. Speaking of Minnesota.
Minnesota 49 - Colorado 7
The Gophers stomped a Colorado team that may be among the worst groups in the power 5 conferences. Minnesota has very strong “Ain’t played nobody” vibes, having faced New Mexico State, FCS Western Illinois, and this Colorado team that’s been blown out by TCU and Air Force before this Minnesota beat down, but Minnesota has utterly dominated the weak competition.
The most notable outcome of this game for Spartan fans is that the Gophers’ leading receiver (by far), Chris Autman-Bell got injured and is supposedly out for the rest of the season.
The defense looks suffocating, the offense runs down your throat before uncorking long passes. Tanner Morgan looks revived. Minnesota did whatever they wanted in this game and Colorado could do very little offensively against the Gopher defense. Minnesota looks poised for a run at the Big Ten West in a quietly important season for PJ Fleck’s program.
Maryland 34 - SMU 27
One of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Playing a close game with SMU isn’t the end of the world, the Mustangs are a competent program that has won 10, 7, and 8 games in the last three seasons. That said, there is a difference between “playing a close-ish game against a good G5 team” and “barely escaping with a win at home against a good G5 team” and Maryland barely escaped. This game featured turnovers and Maryland shot themselves in the foot with an absurd 141 yards of penalties and yet, despite so many yards in penalties, SMU still outgained Maryland by 81 yards on the night.
The most positive thing to take from this game for Maryland other than that they likely couldn’t afford to drop a non-conference game if they want to make a bowl, is that running back Roman Hemby remains a real factor. Rushing 16 times for 151 yards it appears that Maryland has legit chops running the ball to pair with a dangerous passing attack, which Hemby is also a threat in.
Maryland leaves the non-conference schedule with the feeling of being “whelmed” not underwhelmed or overwhelmed. They beat their two rollover games comfortably but not as convincingly at they would’ve hoped and the one competent team they faced nearly beat them. The offense will need to find more potency if they are going to make up for how miserable the defense appears to be.
Penn State 41 - Auburn 12
Penn State looked dominant in Alabama. Sean Clifford looked spry again and threw for 178 yards on 19 attempts, the hapless Auburn offense couldn’t finish drives, and freshman star Nicholas Singleton looks like the best Penn State back since Saquon Barkley.
This was a good “vibes” win for a Penn State team that is trying to rebound from a bad COVID year and the year from hell last season. And yet, I can’t help but be somewhat baffled by the number of people who see this as some sort of narrative-changing win for Penn State.
They went on the road to an SEC team and blew them out of the water. That counts for something
It counts for something. But Auburn sucks, this team won 6 games in each of the last two seasons and struggled with San Jose State last week. Slapping the SEC logo on your shoulder does not make you a dangerous team. It was still just two weeks ago that their offensive line got torn up by Purdue.
This is weird because normally I’m all about hyping up a program that whoops an SEC team, but it is genuinely bizarre to see some of the reaction. Penn State now gets two more warm-up games against Central Michigan and Northwestern before they travel to the Big House, the main goal needs to be reaching Ann Arbor healthy.
Also, pour one out for Bryan Harsin for whom it is no longer a question of “if” but “when” he will be fired. I was intrigued by his offseason where he just doubled down on all his Boise State stuff but clearly it hasn’t worked. If the Tigers lose to Missouri next week they may miss a bowl game.
Purdue 29 - Syracuse 32
This game was wild but made me very sad so I don’t want to talk about it. Purdue should have won but between some mistakes and terrible penalties they lost. If they can keep their confidence they still look good enough to threaten in the West, but they do stand at 1-2 which can impact the mental aspect of a college team.
OTHERS:
Northwestern lost to Southern Illinois, who is a good but not great FCS program and after some good vibes out of a week 0 win against Nebraska, Northwestern now appears to be just as bad as they were expected to be.
Nebraska got blown out 49- 14 by Oklahoma. This probably shouldn’t be in the “others” category but I feel like you’ve read plenty about how bad Nebraska is at this point if you read anything about college ball.
Indiana barely survived Western Kentucky 33-30 with a walk-off field goal. Indiana can, and should, feel good about being 3-0 with a Big Ten win after last season, they have to go to Cincinnati next week before conference play begins in earnest. They seem like the worst team in the Big Ten East right now.
Rutgers is 3-0. They may have only managed to beat Temple 16-14 but hey, Rutgers can’t complain about wins.
Wisconsin manhandled New Mexico State 66-7 to take out the frustration of losing to Wazzu. They get ohio next.
ohio state beat Toledo 77-21.
Iowa defeated a bad Nevada team 27-0 in a game that went well past midnight due to weather. Nevada sucks but scoring 27 points has to feel good for Iowa regardless of who it is against.
We get actual Big Ten play this weekend.