Big Ten Football: Week 3 Preview
12:00pm EST
#4 Michigan (-47.5) vs UConn (O/U 60.5)
Not much to say here. UConn is terrible. There was brief hope they would be competitive after they stuck with Utah Sate opening week but now we know that Utah State (coming off a Mountain West championship) is awful. There is minimal intrigue with the QB competition (supposedly) finished for Michigan.
The only way anyone learns anything here is if Michigan’s starters do not utterly dominate UConn which seems unlikely. One thing worth keeping somewhat of an eye on is how The Wolverines offensive line has been a little bit underwhelming given the competition, they’ve still dominated but a handful of plays with slip-ups is disappointing for what was one of the nation’s best units last season. This issue is nowhere near a true concern at this point, but it’d be nice to see them play a clean game.
Last week Michigan failed to cover the spread against Hawaii because Cade McNamara was broken on his drives and the 3rd string defense played almost the entire second half. UConn is at least as bad as Hawaii but the spread is much smaller, in addition, there has been significant talk that Michigan’s schedule has been so easy that they may leave the starters in for a couple of more series than the past couple of weeks purely for conditioning reasons. Michigan covering huge spreads against bad teams at the Big House remains a pretty solid bet.
Pick: Michigan -47.5
Nebraska vs. #6 Oklahoma (-10.5) (O/U 65.5)
Does a dead cat bounce? Probably not. If this was last season’s Huskers I would have more faith in their ability to potentially cover this spread and maybe even win. But I think this season’s edition is not simply snake-bit by Scott Frost. This season’s defense is bad, and its bad because it has bad players. The Brent Venables edition of Oklahoma hasn’t been tested yet, but They’ve been effective so far. Dillon Gabriel looks healthy, they still have talent all over the field despite Lincoln Riley pillaging so much to USC.
Pick: Oklahoma -10.5
Purdue (+1.5) @ Syracuse (O/U 59.5)
Purdue smoked FCS Indiana State last week after a close loss against Penn State in week 1. Syracuse has looked revived after the Dino Babers era seemed to be on life support. Syracuse crushed hapless UConn last week but also dominated Louisville in week 1 31-7 and looks sharp.
It makes sense that this line is so close, both teams are at best “okay” but were predicted to be worse than they’ve looked so far. That said, I’d go with Purdue as the road underdog here but I’d do so tentatively. Mostly a principle play. On paper these two teams seem evenly matched, but the difference is that I have more faith in Purdue being better because Purdue was actually pretty good last season. They lost a great deal from that team, but this Syracuse team had won 6 games in the previous two seasons.
The real pick here though is going to be over 59.5. Both Syracuse and Purdue struggle to run the ball while having potentially explosive passing games. Both teams still have major questions defensively as well. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader has completed nearly 80% of his passes for 11 yards per attempt and has yet to throw and an interception. Part of that may be that the offensive attack for Syracuse looks different schematically from years past but a few weeks into the season Purdue has plenty of film to analyze.
In the end, this is basically a bet on a Purdue program that has simply been stronger for longer than Syracuse. Since Babers took over in 2016 The Orange have been to a single bowl game in 2018 when they inexplicably won 9 games. Its possible that Babers has figured something out with this roster but it isn’t often that a coach resurrects their program this late into it.
Also, as a funny side note. Purdue receiver Charlie Jones, who transferred from Iowa, has more receiving yards than Iowa currently has passing yards as a team.
Pick: Purdue +1.5
3:30 pm EST
Penn State (-3.5) @ Auburn (O/U 47.5)
The Southern end of this home and home which represents one of the two genuinely intriguing games on the Big Ten slate this weekend.
Penn State looks capable but shakey. The offensive line appears to suck, as it has for the entirety of James Franklin’s tenure, Sean Clifford looks just okay to the point that many are wishing for freshman Drew Allar to take over. Penn State still has talent, Freshman Nicholas Singleton is electric at running back and they may have the best secondary in the Big Ten.
On the other hand, Auburn is a dead-program walking. Bryan Harsin barely survived the Summer and a significant number of boosters are actively rooting against the team so they can dump him. QB TJ Finley is terrible, the wide receivers might be the worst non-Vanderbilt group in the SEC.
HOWEVA
We are going against the grain here. For all the dysfunction and misery that has beset Auburn, I kind of believe in them. Bryan Harsin, knowing that he is one slip-up away from being fired, doubled down on his Boise State roots. He brought in his guys to coach, and basically doubled-down on coaching ball. Tank Bigsby remains excellent, and Penn State’s offensive line might get demolished by a solid Auburn front 7. Its also worth remembering that if Penn State had any sense, Franklin would be on almost as thin ice as Harsin is, but instead Penn State decided to give him a massive extension.
Pick: Auburn (+3.5)
7:30 pm EST
Michigan State (+3.5) @ Washington (O/U 56.5)
One of the most intriguing early-season matchups we have!
Washington is a team that underperformed last season and is widely predicted to improve, while Michigan State is a team that overperformed and is largely expected to regress. To make matters better, these two teams have almost identical resumes through two weeks. Both played competent MAC teams (Western Michigan and Kent State respectively) who they beat but had some cracks shown, then beat down a truly awful team. (Akron and Portland State respectably)
I understand why it is that the betting public remains highly skeptical of the Spartans, but to see them as an under dog against a Washington team that, no matter how much they underperformed last season, did win just 4 games last year.
The irony here is that this is a game that I’m highly intrigued by because it is a pair of teams that I have no clue how they will perform this season, you could tell me that either of these teams will win 10 or 5 games this season and I’d believe you, but because both teams have questions it will be hard to make conclusive takeaways after this game.
There are two things that stand out as reasons why you would go against MSU and take Washington with the points.
Payton Thorne has looked mediocre in two games against bad defenses. Washington’s defense is a question mark, but they have talent in the secondary that will punish Thorne if he makes more bad throws.
Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr looks excellent throwing the ball. Kalen DeBoer’s offensive scheme has him throwing for better than 10 yards per attempt and Michigan State fielded an all-time bad secondary last season without much reason to hope they are meaningfully improved.
Here is the good news though, and the reason why I will take MSU as long as the line doesn’t move any closer. For starters, we know that Payton Thorne is better than he has looked so far, its possible he has a regression this year but I will believe it’s happening for real if its still going on in a few weeks. More importantly, Washington State got utterly paved by teams that could run the ball last season. Michigan beat this team 31-10 while throwing for 44(!!!) yards. Kalen DeBoer may rejuvenate the team, but he isn’t going to make a bad front 7 stronger and tougher. Michigan State may be missing Kenneth Walker but they’ve shown aptitude on the ground, enough that even if Washington shreds through the air, MSU can play keepaway.
Basically, MSU should be able to control the ball with its running game, and even if Thorne is still a bit off they will hit a big play or two. This basically means that MSU needs to force just a couple of bad series from Penix to come out ahead.
How the secondary performs should be the biggest thing for the Spartans to watch in this game. Unless you were holding onto possibly appearing in the playoff, winning this game doesn’t actually mean much in the actual goals for the season. But I think even the most optimistic fans would admit that the secondary must be improved to try and repeat the success of last season. Washington could well end up being mediocre again this year, but the passing attack has shown enough life that if this MSU secondary is not improved, they will get shredded. If I’m MSU I’d rather lose with the secondary holding up than winning a shootout where the Huskies throw for 500 yards.
Non-P5 games
Minnesota hosts Colorado who is technically a P5 team but not really. The Buffs look utterly disastrous taking huge losses to TCU and Air Force. Minnesota will enter Big Ten playing having faced no good teams but they’ve already made it clear they are at least good enough to stomp terrible teams.
Iowa hosts Nevada, which may actually end up being somewhat competitive given that Iowa probably isn’t physically capable of scoring more than 20 points. Nevada is still probably bad though. They beat bad New Mexico State and Texas State teams but lost a shootout against FCS Incarnate Word last week. The only intrigue here is if Iowa can find any offense at all.
ohio hosts Toledo at the shoe. Toledo is probably going to be in the mix for the MAC championship this season but this should be another stomping for ohio. Only intrigue is if Smith-Njigba plays and looks healthy.
Wisconsin hosts a hapless New Mexico State program to club a baby seal before heading to Columbus next week.
Indiana hosts Western Kentucky. Indiana barely beat the Hilltoppers last season but WKU is worse this season while Indiana looks improved. A more convincing win than last week will do some good for Indiana.
Rutgers goes to Temple, it seems odd to treat any game as a walkover for Rutgers but they obliterated Temple last season so no reason to expect them not to do so this year. The Rutgers defensive line may be genuinely good so it’s hard to see Temple managing any offense.
Northwestern hosts FCS Southern Illinois.
Maryland hosting SMU is the one game here with real intrigue. Most people have SMU pegged for major regression after Sonny Dykes left for TCU but they’ve looked as explosive offensively as ever through two games. They probably won’t be able to keep up with Maryland but they should be able to put some points on the board. This game is in the same time-slot as MSU vs Washington which is unfortunate but it may be worth flipping over occasionally.