Big Ten Preview: Week 2
This is obviously going to be somewhat abbreviated. I have no good excuse for not getting this done earlier in the week.
Quick Recap of last week:
Michigan State 35 - Western Michigan 13
MSU’s opener had a pedestrian score-line but this game was closer than that. I came away from this game figuring that there wasn’t really anything meaningful to be gained. Most likely, whatever your opinion on MSU was before the season will be unchanged.
If you are among those that believed that they could build on last season towards another excellent year, it is easy to point to the 21-3 half-time score and that MSU simply fell asleep at the wheel in the second half after dominating the second, and note that with the game still close into the 4th quarter they re-awakened and put the game out of reach for a comfortable score-line.
If you are among those who believed that this team will be meaningfully worse than last season and last season they should’ve actually won 7 games not 10 then you probably still feel the same way. A Western Michigan team that is probably not going to be that good even within the MAC was within 8 points deep into the game, the Broncos moved the ball with some effectiveness, MSU went a long period where the offense looked dead in the water, and the good of the offense still looked like last season’s version where they couldn’t string together drives and relied almost entirely on big plays.
What do you think?
I was high-ish on MSU coming into the season. This game was a slight letdown.
For starters, this WMU is not the same one as last season. If it was last season’s version, featuring Kaleb Eleby and Skyy Moore, this would count as a positive defensive outing for the Spartans’ troubled secondary. But Western is probably not going to be anything close to the offense that took ACC champion, Pitt, to task, so despite dominating the line of scrimmage for much of the game, the defense is still very concerning.
The main thing here though is that my optimism was largely based on the hope that Thorne would take a step forward and that simply did not look to be the case. It is entirely possible that it’s just first-game blues for Thorne, but he simply didn’t look sharp.
Michigan 51 - Colorado State 7
Colorado State is (probably) going to be among the worst teams in the Mountain West this season. This game doesn’t do anything to make me believe that Michigan’s defense will actually be good again after the departures of their 3 best defenders. That said, it certainly makes you feel better about the pass rush when you utterly dominate an air-raid team by pressuring the QB non-stop. (for those that are unaware, one of the biggest strengths of the air-raid and why it often is so effective for lower-level programs is that it is one of the best systems for negating a weak offensive line. Spreading the field with wide receivers makes it hard to blitz and all the short passes mean that you don’t have to block very long)
Mostly, this game just says that Michigan isn’t going to have some disaster-level dropoff this season. Whether or not they are still good enough to tango with ohio is still far off and something we won’t get any real clues for another month or so.
What about the QB situation?
Let’s wait and see how JJ McCarthy does tonight against Hawaii. Hawaii is so bad that it should be a comical slaughter but despite the fact that JJ has thrown plenty of passes, he has not really had the whole playbook in front of him in a game that wasn’t in garbage time so let’s wait.
Others:
I do not buy the “oh wow ohio does defense now!” because Notre Dame’s QB was clearly awful and Notre Dame remains the most fraudulent program in the nation.
Iowa’s offense is bad even by Iowa standards and they might not win 6 games this season.
Illinois vs Indiana was huge for an Indiana program that didn’t win a Big Ten game last year. Illinois has to feel awful because they probably should’ve won and not just within how the game went, it is one of the few conference games where Illinois was probably just the better team. If they don’t get to 6 wins, this is the game they will lament. That said, Illinois seems legit in a way that Indiana still doesn’t and I wonder if they sneak their way to like, 8 wins behind an all-world running back and exceptionally salty defense.
Rutgers beat Boston College which may seem like nothing, but if BC makes a bowl game (which they are largely predicted to and have done almost every year for a while now) it will be the first time they’ve beaten a P5 team that went bowling in like 6 or 7 years.
Preview:
Michigan State (-34.5) vs Akron 4:00pm EST
Akron is terrible. In the last three seasons, they have won 0, 1, and 2 games and opened up this season by squeaking by an FCS team 30-23. The only realistic way that we learn anything about Michigan State here is if they do not absolutely beat that ass. The game against Western is mostly concerning because Western is probably not good even by MAC standards, we know Akron is terrible even by MAC standards, is Akron is within a score deep into this game it is time to have real concerns.
The only hope of Akron really doing things is that they do have Joe Moorhead as a head coach now, you may remember Moorhead as the architect of the Saquan Barkley offenses at Penn State. He is not at Akron because his career fizzled out, by most accounts, he could have any number of OC jobs and is still a guy who gets head coach buzz from real jobs, but he went to Akron to get out of the spotlight a bit and be closer to home.
Pick: MSU (-34.5)
My faith in MSU is a bit shaken after the Western game but Akron is another level of bad. Even if the doubters end up being right about MSU when all is said and done this season, they should still crush this Akron team. 34.5 is a ton of points but State can clearly still get explosive plays which lends itself to more possessions to reach that spread.
Michigan (-51.5) vs Hawaii. 8:00 pm EST
Hawaii got pulverized by a Vanderbilt team that turned around and struggled against an FCS squad in week 1. In week two they got pulverized by a Western Kentucky team that lost almost all of its good players and coaches. This may be the worst team in all of FBS this season.
Ignoring that absurd spread for a moment. Regardless of what the final score actually ends up with, anything other than total domination would be the reason for question in this game.
There is also of course the whole QB thing going on. JJ McCarthy is starting and given that he is clearly the more talented player and Cade McNamara giving a bit of a dud on the opening weekend he will probably lock up that spot tonight.
Michigan covering huge spreads against baby-seals has been a consistently good bet in the Harbaugh era, but 51.5 points is still a tough ask. Still…
Pick: Michigan (-51.5)
At a certain point, if it ain’t broke then don’t fix it. Harbaugh loves nothing more than clubbing baby seals at the Big House, and this Hawaii team lost by 53 points to Vanderbilt in Hawaii. Not to mention that the QB competition means that the offense will probably not let up like it often does. JJ will want to show his full arsenal and even if it gets out of hand then Cade comes in for much of the second half looking to pull the job back to himself.
Actual Games:
Northwestern vs Duke (+10.5)
Duke looked alive last week in a win over Temple. Northwestern beat Nebraska in Dublin and their offense looked more alive than it did at any point last season. Do not bet on this game.
I would lean northwestern because even though these are both teams that will probably suck but looked pretty good in their first games, Northwestern looked good against a Big Ten team even if it was Nebraska. Mostly watch to see if Northwestern can move the ball as they did against Nebraska again or if that was an anomaly.
Wisconsin (-17.5) vs Washington State
You may be looking at that line sideways a bit. Wisconsin wasn’t a world-beater last season and Wazzu didn’t suck, but Wazzu probably does suck now. The Cougars opened up their season by squeaking by FCS Idaho 24 - 17. This game is at Camp Randall.
The real question here is if Wisconsin is actually improved from last season which they probably are. The opening stretch last year was goofy and Brealon Allen (who didn’t come onto the scene until almost halfway through last year) is that good. Take Wisconsin to stomp.
El Assico:
Virginia @ Illinois (-3.5)
Illinois playing a P5 team in its non-conference when it is going to be trying desperately to make a bowl remains bizarre. Virginia crushed this Illini team last year and despite a different coaching staff, Brenden Armstrong is still here. Virginia was not impressive against FCS Richmond on opening weekend but it still seems bizzare for Illinois to be favored by more than a field goal. Virginia remains too much of a question mark to know for sure what they will be so I would not bet on this game, I do feel like this Illini team is actually pretty good though so I’d lean them, but over a field goal is too much to try for.
Others:
Everyone else is playing G5 or FCS teams so in the interest of time I’m just going to skip over them. The only one of those games worth monitoring is probably Nebraska vs Georgia Southern. Nebraska is obviously on the verge of total collapse after struggling with North Dakota last week and Southern has a decent talent for a G5 even if they are transitioning away from the triple-option. Southern is also coached by former USC coach Clay Helton for anyone who didn’t know that.
I won’t bottle it this week and get a proper recap and preview.