Cade Cunningham Season Preview
If you missed my in-depth jump into Cade’s rookie season and bigger picture you can do that right here.
Shoutout u/AkronIBM for posting the Killian Hayes Preview to the subreddit for me. It’s very cool that people are doing that.
About last season:
The above piece covers it pretty well I think so this will be brief. Cunningham was drafted 1st overall, had some injury issues at the start of the season, and struggled in his first few games. Once he got rolling it went really well and he seems poised to become a genuine #1 on a team.
Offense:
Cunningham is an absolute powerhouse. His rookie numbers of 17.4/5.5/5.6 are highly indicative of how effective he was. His efficiency numbers widely improved as last season went on, with his TS% jumping by 4 points after the all-star break.
Cunningham’s abilities with the ball in his hands are immense, I would again direct you to the above piece where I put many clips together, to see how effective he is at getting by defenders. Even elite on-ball guys struggled to stay in front of him and he proved more than capable of finishing among the trees at the rim. Despite shooting just 31%, most teams defended him like a better shooter and he showed great confidence in taking dribble-pullups from deep, an essential skill for a modern ballhandler.
What about the efficiency? Even when it improved it wasn’t very good.
That is true, that jump in efficiency only meant his TS% was 53% after the break which is still mediocre. There is some reason for concern here. Scoring efficiency isn’t something like turnovers that can be automatically waved off because he’s so young, players often get more efficient over time but it isn’t an iron-clad rule that young ballhandlers are inefficient.
The main thing that makes me unconcerned is that Cade genuinely got no calls. He took 2.6 free throws per game, and had free throw rate of just 16.3% which is comical. He’s a physical player who doesn’t shy away from contact inside. In the future he’s going to draw more fouls and that alone will make a big difference. After that, we are mostly worried about his three-point shooting. The form seems good, he’s always been a confident shooter. I’m optimistic that will improve. And even as is, teams still often defended him as though he was hitting more.
He will be the driving force behind the Piston offense this season and beyond. The only question long-term will be what the best long-term fit for him is going to be, the arrival of Jaden Ivey seems to push him more toward a true point-guard but he may be best off as more of a score-first player. Needing to figure this out is a very good problem to have “Help my young player does a good impression of two different positions but which one is he more good at??”
This season the main thing to watch for is how he gels with Jaden Ivey. Given that Ivey is theoretically the second core-piece behind Cade, this partnership is going to have a pretty significant impact on the future of the franchise.
Cunningham and Ivey had solid reputations as teammates so one would hope they get along fine. But it is both pure hoops and personality that will matter. Do they have the awkward “my turn your turn” between them? Will the ever be any strain about who takes shots when it matters? Will they shoot well enough to not clog the others driving lanes?
The efficiency is a minor concern, if it lags again this season then it is no longer a minor concern. As brilliant as Cade was in his rookie season, you probably can’t build an elite offense around a player that inefficient. Drawing fouls and shooting a bit better from deep should rectify that though.
The last note offensively is to see how his conditioning looks. Last season there were several games where he was visibly gassed by the end, I think of the Celtics game late in the season where he scored 27 points but by the end was just kind of chucking up threes. As with most of his issues, this is understandable because he’s a kid, but it is important he shows growth here. Both in terms of straight-up conditioning as well as knowing when and how to effectively use his energy so he isn’t spent in the 4th quarter.
Defense:
As one would expect from a rookie, Cade is firmly in the “mixed bag” category defensively. There are clear signs of potential, his size is a weapon, and he’s both strong and tough enough to play physically with bigger players. On the flip side, he got lost with regularity, and even though he mostly seemed engaged there were plenty of moments of outright apathy on the defensive end of the court.
For the coming season, the hope is that he tidies up the mental mistakes in terms of positioning and continues to mostly try. I’m under no illusions about the defensive effort of offensive stars, even the ones who are good defenders are only good selectively. As such, the hope is for a mentally solid defender whose size makes him versatile enough to not be targeted for mismatches. Theoretically, he could be much more than this, but that is probably wishful thinking. As long as he isn’t phoning it in on defense to the point it sinks the whole defense we can live with it.
What if he’s an exception to that rule? There are stars throughout history who give their all defensively.
Theoretically, his combination of positional size and hoops IQ could make him borderline elite defensively. I don't think he’s the type of athlete to be a yearly selection as an All-NBA defender, but he could make one or two.
That said, I really don’t think that’s happening. He is going to have a substantial offensive load so even if he gives all he has defensively, most of his effort will already be expended on offense.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
Finally an easy one. He is starting and should come close to leading the team in minutes if he stays healthy. It seems clear that they are counting on him to be the nominal point guard. Whether or not that continues to be the case is the only real question as there’s still a world where he fits better next to another true point guard.
Where does he fit on the floor?
Ball in his hands. Breaking down defenses with drives to the hoop and making good decisions between shooting and passing. The Driving force of the offense, but hopefully still comfortable stepping off the ball and letting others do their thing. A big thing to watch will be how mobile he is when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.
Worst Case Scenario:
The shooting doesn’t improve and for some reason, he still doesn’t get calls. The eye test remains good but the numbers drag down the results. The Pistons limp through the season and we enter the Summer openly wondering if Cade is capable of being a true #1 offensive option given the turnovers and missed shots.
Best Case Scenario:
MVP.
Come on
I don’t think winning MVP this season is more outlandish than the other “best case scenarios” I’ve put out here. Hamidou Diallo’s best case featured him, a player who was a mid-rotation guy on a bad team, making an all-star team. This is not as far-fetched as that.
The team won’t be good enough for that though, even if he is
That’s probably fair. Even if Cade goes full god-mode and averages 26/7/7 on good efficiency the Pistons probably top out as a play-in team. So I will revise.
The shooting improves and he’s drawing more fouls from day one. The Pistons have a top-ten offense when he’s on the floor. He’s so good that the Pistons do not get a top ten draft pick.
Official Prediction:
The shot is somewhat improved but not fully fixed and remains a bit of a bugaboo. Everything else hits. He averages something in the range of 24/6/6 (or more) and he is drawing lots of fouls to boost his efficiency. The Pistons are too bad and too young to be all that good, but after a monstrous season carrying a huge offensive load, there is no one questioning whether or not he is capable of being the guy.
In case it wasn’t clear from other stuff I’ve written about Cade, I am all in on him. There are admittedly some parts of this rebuild that I’m not sold on and there are things I have genuine concerns about for the future of the team. Cade is not one of them, his presence here should give even the most pessimistic fans hope that this is going to work out.
This is especially true for me given that I’m not at all a “championship or bust” type of fan. I just want a team that is worth watching, and I have little doubt that Cade will keep that box checked.