College Football: Big Ten East Preview Part 1.
So here we are. I said there would be some non-hoops stuff and here we go. I love College football, especially Big 10 football. As a full disclosure for anyone who hadn’t noticed, I am a Michigan fan. As a token of goodwill to any readers who are MSU fans, the first college football thing I wrote was about how Mel Tucker’s extension proved MSU was on the right path. So you can go read that if you missed it. Basically, my bias will inevitably soak into college football stuff but hopefully not so much that it is unreadable for fans of other schools. Unless that other school is ohio state. Then please leave.
We are going to do this by win totals, it’s not betting advice or any other nonsense. The win totals are simply a convenient outline to do brief previews of each team.
How extensive is college football stuff going to be this fall?
When the season starts there will probably be at least two college football posts per week, one previewing the weekend slate of Big 10 games and one reviewing it. There may be other stuff sprinkled in though.
What if I don’t care about your college football takes?
It’s not behind a paywall. Don’t read it.
All of these win totals are from fanduel for anyone wondering. It’s not any sort of promotion and the only official gambling advice I will give is to not gamble. That said if anyone sportsbooks wants to pay me to use your lines I will 100% sell my soul for like, $20.
ohio state: 11 (O -130/ U+110)
Last season did little to dispirit the general public from viewing ohio state as one of the few programs in the nation that can actually win a national title. The Buckeyes finished 10-2 last season before winning a thrilling Rose Bowl over Utah. The wider opinion here seems to suggest that ohio state is the most realistic team to challenge Alabama and CJ Stroud is the only real challenge to Bryce Young repeating for the Heisman trophy.
Schedule:
vs Notre Dame
vs Arkansas State
vs Toledo
vs Wisconsin
vs Rutgers
@ Michigan State
vs Iowa
@ Penn State
@ Northwestern
vs Indiana
@ Maryland
vs Michigan
Pick: Under (tentative)
This is probably my boldest prediction here. It’s understandable why the number is 11 and its juiced to the over. Last season was just the second time in the last decade that ohio state has lost twice in the regular season, they return one of the nations best QBs in CJ Stroud, Treveyeon Henderson rushed for 1200 yards as a freshman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the team in receiving yards over two receivers who were just drafted 10th and 11th overall which is wild.
And yet. Do we really think ohio state is going to be meaningfully better offensively than they were last season? By most measures, advanced or basic, they had the best offense in the country last season so the simple fact that they will probably be that good again is a testament to the skill here. Despite that this offense should be comfortably among the best, if not outright the best, in the country, that was true last season too.
The problem was defensively, where the 42-27 loss to Michigan cemented a trend from the whole season. ohio state was soft defensively and struggled to contain teams who could really run the football. People put it behind them because ohio state made a coaching change early in the year and seemed to improve defensively, but watch the highlights of the Michigan game and the Oregon game.
They are basically the same game. People seemed quick to put it behind them because those bookended a season in which they plastered a bunch of teams, but in week two an Oregon team that wasn’t exactly stellar (and finished 10-4) went into the shoe and ran the ball all over them. Then at the end of the season, ohio state went into the big house and had the exact same thing happen.
Wow that’s helpful. All you need is an NFL defensive line and one of the best rushing attacks in the country and then you can beat this team. Thanks. How helpful.
Well obviously ohio state is still really good. But even when you dig a bit more, Nebraska and Minnesota both put real scares into the Buckeyes as well with an effective running attack. An offense that averaged nearly 46 points per game scored 26 against Nebraska and 33 against a crippled Penn State team. Michigan State’s secondary was always going to get pulverized but if that game hadn’t gotten as out of hand as quickly as it did there is little doubt that MSU would’ve put points on the board (remember that they ran Kenneth Walker just 6 times that game).
This season they have Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan who all theoretically fit the bill of talented enough on defense to not get utterly destroyed, while having the types of physical offenses that can give them trouble. Toss in that if Penn State can avoid injury hell this season they could fit this bill as well.
They do get ND, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan at home.
Well yeah. Let’s be clear, I don’t think ohio is taking some massive step backwards. But when the line is set in such a way that it only needs one slip-up, I wouldn’t want to go on the over. 11 wins feel right, they will most likely drop one of those games and probably no others, but I do think 10 is more likely than 12.
Why is the defense going to be the same? They hired a new DC after all.
Knowles is a good coach. For how good Oklahoma State was on defense last year, there isn’t exactly a stellar long-term record of Knowles being some unstoppable defensive guru. They will likely be better, but before last season his defenses were not exactly stand-outs.
Biggest Narrative Question?
Can they prove last year was just a blip? ohio has failed to win the Big 10 in back to back years in the past decade, both 15 and 16. However, this currently has a very different feel to it. For starters, they were coming off their lone national championship of the decade in 2015, then they lost on a last second field goal to MSU. They still went 12-1 after pasting Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. I don’t want to ruffle feathers of MSU people, but after MSU got steam-rolled in the playoff, ohio state (rightly or wrongly) came away feeling like they were still definitively the top dog in the Big Ten and simply got unlucky.
In 2016 they again failed to win the Big 10 but once again, they lost just 1 game in the regular season against Penn State in what is one of the more bizzare weather games in recent memory.
And then at the end of the season, they beat Michigan by one of the biggest travesties in sports history a foot and still went to the playoff. They got pasted in that playoff by Clemson but still. ohio state undoubtedly believed themselves to still be unquestioned as the leagues top dog, and they were proven right as they went on to win the next 4 league titles. But as stated above, they lost twice in the regular season, both games fairly resoundingly. No last-second field-goals or absurd rain-storm. ohio state has had a tight grip on the Big Ten for the last decade, if they come out this season and roll through their schedule to 12-0 then last season is a blip and forgotten by everyone except Michigan fans, if they slip up again though, the facade officially begins to crack. If they slip up in such a way that results in a second straight loss to Michigan, Columbus may implode.
Michigan: 9.5 (O -125/ U +105)
Last season broke the spell. Finally, beat ohio state, won the big ten.
Schedule:
vs Colorado State
vs Hawaii
vs Uconn
vs Maryland
@ Iowa
@ Indiana
vs Penn State
vs Michigan State
@ Rutgers
vs Nebraska
vs Illinois
@ ohio state
Pick: Over (tentative)
I want to make this pick a strong over but I can’t. Theoretically, this Michigan team should be just as good as the one that won the Big 10 last season. The defense will be worse without Hutchinson, Ojabo, and Daxton Hill, but theoretically there are players ready to step up so the decline is small. While that decline should be made up for by an offense that was quietly elite last season bringing back almost everyone to get even better.
I genuinely believe the offense will be even better. Whether the QB is McCarthy or McNamara, the QB play should be improved. All the wide receivers of note return, the running backs room will miss Haskins but Donovan Edwards looked more than ready to step up and Blake Corum looked like their best back before tweaking his ankle last season. The offensive line returns everyone but their center, where the departing Andrew Vastardis, who was a former walk-on, is replaced by Olusegun Oluwatimi. Oluwatimi is a transfer from Virginia who was a Rimington finalist last season. Basically, an offensive line that was already awesome should only improve, while everything else should be at least as good as last season. And last season was no fluke, they probably should’ve lost to Nebraska, but the also probably should’ve beaten MSU. Penn State was a close win but Michigan was clearly the better team, the only lucky thing there is that Penn State already had one foot in the grave by that game. They trounced ohio state with the games only big-swing turnover being committed by Michigan.
My main concern is the defense. Advanced stats put Michigan as the Big Tens best defense last season and yes they had two of the best edge-rushers in the country and a Aidan Hutchinson probably had the best defensive season since Ndamukong Suh. There should be guys ready to step into the void.
And yet, it was hard to shake the feeling that last seasons defense was actually still the disastrous defense of the previous two seasons. A whiz-kid defensive coordinator got just enough duct tape and staples in the form of Hutchinson, Ojabo, and Hill to hold it together. Before they inexplicably stone-walled ohio state, everyone could run on them (hello MSU fans!), but Michigan’s offense tended to be so dominant and control the pace of the game that everyone eventually had to give up and pass which unleashed one of the nation’s best pass-rushes. I wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan’s defense falls off immensely and results in a let-down.
Are you worried about losing both Coordinators?
Somewhat but I’m tentatively optimistic.
Defensively, Mike Macdonald was pretty clearly an actual football genius as far as the scheme was concerned. Losing that is decidedly part of my concern for the defense this season. In the bigger picture though, he supposedly wasn’t that interested in doing recruiting stuffs so it’s probably okay that he didn’t stay longer and by most accounts, the new DC runs similar stuff but is an actual college coach who knows how to recruit.
Offensively with the loss of Josh Gattis is basically the opposite. Before the the last couple of games last season I was never impressed with Gattis as a playcaller and, in fact, was more often than not actively unimpressed. In addition, most of the good stuff from the offense this past season was reinfusing the offense with Harbaugh running schemes and that isn’t going anywhere.
My main concern with losing Josh Gattis is not even that he was an awesome recruiter (and in fact a penchant for hitting up recruits mothers is supposedly part of the reason he’s gone) but from the moment he arrived it was clear he put an emphasis on making Michigan faster and that emphasis paid off last season. I hope that Harbaugh and the rest of the staff are smart enough to see that and continue to go out of their way to recruit speed.
Biggest narrative question?
The exact foil of ohio state’s. Can they build on last year so it isn’t a blip? If Michigan goes 10-2 with a blowout loss to ohio state then nothing has really changed in the big picture, in addition, this should be another peak season given the returning production. If Michigan can repeat last season’s success then something real is happening here, otherwise, the program is pretty much right back where they were just with less existential dread since they got at least one.
Penn State: 8. (O -145/ U +125)
Penn State followed up a miserable COVID season with the year from hell. Sean Clifford briefly looked awesome out of the gate but got banged up against the loss to Iowa and never looked right again. The defense lost key players as well and the Nittany Lions limped to 7-5 before losing to Arkansas in the Outback Bowl.
Schedule:
@ Purdue
vs Ohio
@ Auburn
vs Central Michigan
vs. Northwestern
@ Michigan
vs Minnesota
vs ohio state
@ Indiana
vs Maryland
@ Rutgers
vs Michigan State
Pick: Under (strong)
Penn State has talent still. And I get why this number is juiced to the over. Penn State had the year from hell and still came very close to winning 8 games, they barely lost to both Michigan and Michigan State (not to mention the weather against MSU severely hampered their ability to attack MSUs weak secondary), they probably would’ve beaten Iowa if Clifford hadn’t gotten hurt, they lost to Illinois in the sickos game of the year.
And yet, they still have a bad offensive line and the schedule is still tough. They go on the road twice in their first three games, and even though Purdue and Auburn are not exactly world-beaters, neither is a pushover, they have to go to Ann Arbor this season and have a classic trap game by playing what should be a solid Minnesota squad the week before ohio state.
This is a gut feeling over everything else. It is entirely possible that Penn State stays healthier and they are the main challenger to ohio state in the East. But there just seems to be a feeling that, despite the new contract, the James Franklin era at Penn State is getting toward the edge, and if the Nittany Lions don’t start strong it could start coming apart at the seams. James Franklin earned the extra lee-way by conducting a highly professional and straight-laced program, important given what he came into, and also had a stretch of 11, 11, 9, and 11 wins. Penn State is still recruiting like crazy. But this is an important season to turn around.
Biggest Narrative Question:
Can James Franklin right the ship? Penn State’s offensive lines have been consistently poor since arriving, and Penn State is 11-11 in the last two seasons with their three main competitors all looking very strong. It’s part of the brutality of the Big Ten East, but if you can be a really good program and still be 4th best in the division. As stated above, another 7-5 season will bring rumbles about his job to the forefront.
Michigan State: 7.5 (O -120/ U+100)
The Spartans had a magical season, going 10-2, having a near Heisman finalist, beating Michigan, and making memes. They were undone by the country's worst secondary but suddenly Michigan State is hoping that rebuilding to Big Ten contender isn’t going to be as long and painful as first expected.
Schedule:
vs Western Michigan
vs Akron
@ Washington
@Maryland
vs ohio state
vs Wisconsin
@ Michigan
@ Illinois
vs Rutgers
vs Indiana
@ Penn State
Pick: Over (tentative)
The team where you can find opinions all over the place. There is little doubt that Michigan State was not as good as their record last season, there is also little doubt that they are probably not pulling the best running back in the country out of the depth chart of a middling ACC team again. The desire to go under is compelling.
And yet, I think 8 wins is doable. The secondary was absolute booty last season, giving up more passing yards than any team EVER. But Mel Tucker’s background is in defensive backs so he should be able to flex his coaching muscles to make that group less of a disaster.
Offensively, the loss of Kenneth Walker and Jalen Nailor is admittedly huge. The Spartans’ offense hinged almost entirely on their ability to create big plays and those two were huge contributors there.
And yet, I think they can make up the difference a bit. They don’t have such a huge reliance on transfers so they should have better cohesion, and I think Payton Thorne could take a huge step forward. Basically, if they can at least be competent running the ball, having a high-level QB and at one of the best receivers in the conference can carry an offense a long way.
Then why are you tentative?
For one, as stated above, MSU was not as good as their record last season, so it’s entirely possible they are better than last season and win 8 games.
Secondly, there is some fear about this offense in the same vein as my fears of Michigan’s defense. That its a miserable unit that was barely held together by Kenneth Walker’s immense abilities and that they are actually going to be just as bad defensively and mediocre offensively.
I think the important thing for State fans, no matter what, is to not get caught up in winning 11 games (including the bowl) last year. It was a special season but probably not overly indicative of where the program is in rebuilding to a higher level. Winning the Nebraska game was basically an act of God.
Even if MSU goes like, 6-6, if the defense looks steadier and an offensive identity beyond “Go get ‘em Ken” starts to coalesce that’s alright in the big picture.
I will say, my over-pick probably hinges heavily on the Washington game. Washington was a disaster last season so I’ve got it down as a win for MSU, but on the other hand, Washington is not without talent and the coaching situation had a lot to do with their troubles. I can see a world where new coach Kalen DeBoer stabilizes things and Washington has a big bounce-back season. Also, Seattle is not an easy place to go to and win no matter what.
That all sounded pretty negative. Almost as though you only picked the over to look less biased against MSU
There was a lot of negativity because I don’t feel great about going over. If some things break wrong (like say, an injury to Thorne) they could go completely down the tube. Every team is vulnerable to injuries but it does feel like MSU is especially vulnerable, not to mention that most fancy stats were not kind to them last season.
That said, I really do believe Thorne will be no worse than the 4th best QB in the conference, Reed is a monster, and I think Tucker can coach. 8-4 seems like the right spot. Perhaps most accurately, I’m tentative because I think if MSU goes under, they could go waaay under. Which is scary.
Biggest Narrative Question?
Can they avoid too large a drop-off? MSU goes 8-4 (as is my prediction) even with a loss to Michigan, everything is fine and dandy and the program is right on course. If some of MSU’s doubters end up being correct and the team collapses to 4 or 5 wins it would inevitably sap much of the wind from their sails as a program.
We will get the bottom 3 of the East next. Then go to the Big Ten West.