College Football: Big Ten East Preview Part 2
I am now realizing, as I sit down to write this, that I probably shouldn’t have bothered to split the divisions into two parts. At least not in the way I am. Probably would’ve been better to simply separate Michigan and Michigan State from everyone else. Oh well, time for the unlucky three teams at the bottom of one of college football’s toughest divisions.
Part 1 for those who missed it:
Once again. We will use the over/unders on their win totals purely for conversation’s sake. My only gambling advice is not to gamble.
Maryland: 5.5 (O -135/U +115)
Last season was largely positive for Maryland, 6-6, making their first bowl game under Mike Locksley and first since 2016. It was their first bowl win since 2010 by thumping a rudderless Virginia Tech.
Schedule:
vs. Buffalo
@ Charlotte
vs. SMU
@ Michigan
vs. Michigan State
vs. Purdue
@ Indiana
vs. Northwestern
@ Wisconsin
@ Penn State
vs. Ohio State
@ Rutgers
Pick: Over (VERY TENTATIVE I WOULD NOT PLAY THIS GIVEN THE JUICE)
Maryland successfully cemented themselves as the best of the bottom of the Big Ten East last season by beating Indiana and thumping Rutgers. They also pulled off the now customary September success by beating West Virginia in non-conference play and Illinois in a game that was wickedly close.
Theoretically, Maryland should be able to replicate that. Taulia Tagovailoa is back after setting some passing records for the school and if they stay healthy they may have a genuinely terrifying wide-receiver corps. The offensive line doesn’t figure to be very good but that was true last season, the defense figures to be really bad but that was also true last season. The only thing that may take a meaningful step back is the loss of Tavon Fleet-Davis at running back. The terps don’t run the ball very much but he averaged 5.6 yards per rush and had 1,026 yards from scrimmage. (721 rushing, 305 receiving)
Given all that the line is at 5.5, they simply need to match last season’s 6 wins for the over, and given that they shouldn’t be worse, and theoretically should improve with the passing game returning so much. Their non-conference schedule is easy, Buffalo and Charlotte are bad, and SMU is sneakily going to be tough for Maryland’s awful defense but SMU is breaking in a new coaching staff and lost quite a bit from last year’s team. So 3-0 in the non-con and then they need to win three games in conference. Rutgers, Indiana, and Northwestern all seem poised to fit the bill here.
The question will be if they can finally knock off a bigger program. For now, being the best of the bottom is ok for a program that has seen some real trouble over the past decade, but it’s worth remembering that Maryland had real football success at the start of this century and the program has made real investments. Another 6-6 season would be fine, but this should be a peak season for Locksley’s program in year 4. 6-6 isn’t going to get him fired but they want to compete with the big boys.
Knocking off a bigger program (bigger here meaning, someone who isn’t next to them in the dregs of the Big Ten), may also be required to even get to 6-6.
Michigan State seems like the best target for them to knock off given MSU’s weak secondary but that secondary shouldn’t be worse than last season and they only scored 21 against them. Purdue lost a lot on defense and could be winnable with the game at College Park, maybe Penn State disappoints again and James Franklin’s program is imploding by the time they meet but that game is at Penn State which makes it harder to see.
The main issue in all of this is that despite some gaudy numbers, it isn’t clear that Tagovailoa is actually all that good, he isn’t bad certainly, but his pocket presence is lacking, he threw 11 interceptions and was just 6th in the conference in yards per attempt. That’s a shaky arm to hope to carry a team that is going to be weak in basically every other phase.
Biggest Narrative Question:
Is Maryland happy with 6-6? Maryland doesn’t need to be competing for Big Ten titles, but its clear they believe (not without reason) that they can at least sneak into 3rd place in the East on occasion and should be able to separate from Rutgers and Indiana. Maryland has put real money into the program and they are in a genuine recruiting hot-bed. It’s also worth noting that in the 2000s they were actually a pretty solid program in the ACC.
But it isn’t clear if Mike Locksley has the goods to move them up a level beyond “we are better than the dregs of the conference”, Locksley is a good recruiter who is effectively the Don of DMV high school ball, but the problem is that it seems like his entire staff is basically recruiters. The offense passes a lot but there isn’t great structure, they have failed to develop players into more despite some talent on the roster, and the defense is a complete disaster.
Its also worth remembering that they didn’t separate themselves from the bottom by much. They beat Illinois and Indiana by 3 and a mediocre West Virginia team by 6. Their most convincing power-5 wins were 40-16 drubbing of Rutgers in the final game of the season and 54-10 obliteration of a Virginia Tech Team that didn’t want to be there. The point is, that this team was not that far from going 4-8 last season, if that happens this year the program will have some hard choices to make.
That’s far too many words about Maryland football
shush.
Rutgers: 4 (O -110/U -110)
Rutgers went 5-7 last year. Technically 5-8 as they ended up being substituted for a bowl game against Wake Forest at the last minute. An unimpressive season but it does represent Rutgers best win total since they went 7-5 all the way back in 2014.
Schedule:
@ Boston College
vs Wagner
@ Temple
vs Iowa
@ ohio state
vs Nebraska
vs Indiana
@ Minnesota
vs Michigan
@ Michigan State
vs Penn State
@ Maryland
Pick: Under (Confident)
This under-pick should not be viewed as any sort of a lack of confidence in Greg Schiano, he may be questionable as a person but I’m pretty convinced the guy runs an effective football program. It’s important to remember just how low the starting point here was, that they needed some serious turnover luck to win 5 games last year, and the schedule this season is much tougher.
Opening the season on the road against a pretty good Boston College team is a bizarre scheduling choice for a program in Rutgers position (when you’re Rutgers and in the Big Ten East there is no reason to schedule any program with a pulse in the non-con) and should be a loss. Wagner and Temple should be wins.
In Big Ten play the schedule is tougher this season. They get Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota from the west which is about as tough a draw as you can get without playing Wisconsin and their season-end showdown with Maryland (which decided which team went bowling last season) is at Maryland. Last year they got Illinois and Northwestern from the west, both winnable games, and they got to play Maryland at home. Indiana at home seems like the only game where Rutgers will have any chance to be favored this season.
The good news is that Rutgers can live with a schedule-bad season if they can avoid getting embarrassed. Other than inexplicably playing Michigan down the wire in Ann Arbor they were not particularly close in any of their losses but other than Wisconsin there was not the comical blowouts that had come to dominate the schedule in previous seasons.
There are question marks all over the field, it isn’t clear where they can hope to improve, it’s understandable given that this was possibly the worst program in the power 5 when Schiano took over but it still seems to be firmly in the “try to cobble something together with cardboard and duct tape” phase.
Biggest Narrative Question:
Can Rutgers survive a bad win-loss season to keep building in the right direction? Two straight seasons of above-expectations combined with the general momentum of the return of the program’s most successful coach gave them some (relative) success on the recruiting trail. If the team goes 3-9 this season will everyone involved be able to keep cool enough heads about the tough schedule and keep bringing in improved talent? The Scarlet Knights will not start to see the results of improved recruiting until next season at the earliest, but really need to keep the program from upending itself this season and next.
Indiana: 4 (O -120/U +100)
After several seasons appearing to trend in the right direction, Indiana had the season from hell. A combination of underperforming players, injuries, and a tough schedule led them to a brutal 2-10 season. Those two wins were over FCS Idaho and beating (an admittedly pretty good) Western Kentucky by 2 points. After opening the season ranked 17, that’s brutal.
Schedule:
vs Illinois
vs Idaho
vs. Western Kentucky
@ Cincinnati
@ Nebraska
vs Michigan
vs Maryland
@ Rutgers
vs Penn State
@ ohio state
@ Michigan State
vs Purdue
Pick: Under (tentative)
Not much feel here because last season was so bonkers for Indiana. Idaho and WKU are wins, so they need to win three more to go over. Illinois and Rutgers are winnable to get to 4 and a push but those are certainly not gimmes for Indiana and the only other teams on the schedule that they figure to have much chance against are Nebraska, Maryland, and Purdue.
Going over is mostly a bet on Tom Allen actually being a good coach and last season was simply the year from hell. Going under is effectively a bet that they reached some highs largely due to luck and they remain a low-level program. They lost some of their better players from last season, there just isn’t much reason for optimism here other than getting rid of Nick Sheridan as OC.
This is the shortest of these three because I just have the least to say, this program is the least interesting because it really feels to me like this is a program that is about to cough up its final breath before Tom Allen is fired and they start over.
Biggest Narrative Question:
Fairly obvious, but can they bounce back? Going 6-6 would stabilize the program and if Tom Allen is as good a coach as people thought he was before last season they should be able to effectively Iowa their way to 6 wins with tough defense and conservative offense. The Schedule could be far more favorable this season as well, Cincinnati should still be good but they will be worse, Purdue may be worse at the end of the season, they get Maryland and Illinois at home.
Another bad season might not get Tom Allen fired, the two preceding seasons were collectively the best run for Indiana in like 40 years which has to count for something. For now the program is united in “It was the year from hell we will be fine”
but if they lose to Illinois on opening weekend things will get uncomfortable in Bloomington fast.
Thats all for the Big Ten East. We will hit up the West this week as there are games this Saturday!
Also as a side note, any recommendations or opinions or criticism for my college football writing is more than welcome. I really love college football so I want to write about it but this is my first foray into it.
Remind me what the plan is for how you will cover during the season?
My intention is to have two college football posts per week during the season. One previewing the Big Ten slate on Thursday or Friday, and one reviewing it on Sunday or Monday.
Will you write things about the Lions?
Maybe? The main issue is that I want to do tons of hoops stuff, College football is my clear #2 passion project behind hoops so I wanted to slide it in. I’m not sure that I can pay close enough attention to the Lions to feel good about what I’d write about them, also I completely checked out of them last season. But we will see.