College Football: Week 1 Preview
You never did the Big Ten West preview
Yeah I just didn’t really have the time/motivation so whatever.
As I stated before, we will focus pretty much on the Big Ten with some occasional flights outside of it. But we will preview and recap each Big Ten game each week.
Any Recaps of week zero?
Sure. Illinois beating Wyoming to a pulp seems like nothing but given that its Illinois it is something. Wyoming might be bad this season but Illinois looked the way you would hope a possibly bowl-bound Big Ten team to look against a low-level Mountain West School. We will talk plenty about Illinois in a bit though.
Nebraska vs Northwestern is hilarious because Nebraska but other than that not much is learned. They won a combined 6 games last season and 2 in conference so hard to draw wider conclusions. I may write a thing on Frost on his own later.
No MSU opponents played but a couple of UofMs did so I figure I’ll touch on them since I watched them both.
Uconn lost to Utah State, Utah State is a pretty solid team that won the Mountain West last season so the fact that they put up some real fight on the road to lose 31-20 is a genuine positive after being one of the worst programs in all of FBS the last few seasons. They are almost certainly still terrible, but they may have a pulse.
Hawii got dumped on by Vanderbilt to cement the widely-held belief that Hawii will probably be among the worst teams in FBS this season. It was Vanderbilt’s largest margin of victory in like 70 years or something.
All of those highlights are from Matthew Loves Ball. He posts a ton so maybe you don’t want to subscribe but still check out his channel: because he posts the most in-depth CFB highlights out there. https://www.youtube.com/c/MatthewLovesBall
Anyway. Onto Week 1 in order of games being played. All times are EST.
Thusday September 1:
8:00 pm
Penn State(-3.5) @ Purdue.
Highly intriguing game that may or may not actually be close but even if it isn’t close will be big for the narratives.
Purdue lost a lot on both sides of the ball but does return Aidan O’Connell who is probably the best QB in the West division (which isn’t much but whatever), and under Jeff Brohm the Boilermakers have consistently produced quality receivers and potent offense. Whether or not they can survive the losses on the defensive side is the real question. Penn State lost some key players but bring back a healthy Sean Clifford at QB and some difference makers on defense after an injury-riddled season last year.
This game is bigger for Penn State than it is for Purdue. James Franklin isn’t exactly on the hot seat after signing a massive and fully guaranteed extension this Summer, but after back-to-back flop seasons, his program is not in a great place. Turning it around to at least contend for the division this season is hugely important for Penn State this season and there are real questions about their ability to do so.
If Penn State remains healthy they should have a solid defense and good skill-position guys offensively. Sean Clifford was good until he was playing through injuries last season. The problem is that Penn State still figures to have a bad offensive line, an issue that has plagued them for the entirety of James Franklin’s tenure there. The bad line-play resulted in Clifford being ruined and an ineffective rushing attack last year, so as much as we can say “Well they looked great until Clifford got hurt” how can you trust him to stay healthy behind such a leaky line?
Once again, Penn State can’t fire him, but a loss to Purdue to open the season would put a serious dent in Franklin’s program that needs a bounce-back season.
This is especially interesting because Purdue lives for spoiling better teams hopes and dreams. The reality is though, that even if Purdue loses, the main goal is to come out of this game feeling comfortable with the roster, Brohm has quietly done an excellent job at Purdue but only got his breakout success last year and they want to build on it.
Pick:
I’d take Penn State at -3.5. I wouldn’t be confident in it, last season proved that O’Connell was erratic but when he’s on he could slice up anyone and everyone. Purdue also gets a significant game-planning edge with Brohm over the hapless Franklin.
That said, Penn State still has way more talent and even if the Oline is bad this season, it isn’t clear that Purdue has the goods to punish them for it, and even if they do end up giving PSU trouble, there won’t be any injuries piling up from one game.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Can Penn State block at all? Even an optimistic Purdue fan would admit that the defensive line doesn’t figure to be a strength for Purdue this season. So even if Penn State wins, if they struggle to create openings on the ground and protect Clifford in the passing game it is a very bad omen for the rest of the season.
9:00 pm
New Mexico State @ Minnesota (-36.5)
The most interesting thing about this game is that Jerry Kill (currently New Mexico State’s coach and former Minnesota coach) has made it clear he hates PJ Fleck (current Minnesota coach).
Other than that, not a whole lot to say here. New Mexico State looked competitive against Nevada but they are probably going to be terrible this season and Minnesota should smoke them.
That said:
Pick: New Mexico State at +36.5
Seems like a pretty solid point spread to take the underdogs at. Minnesota should win comfortably but both teams play at a slow pace and unless Fleck wants to really smush Kill there won’t be much reason to run up the score. Also worth remembering that this Minnesota team barely beat Miami (OH) and lost to a Bowling Green team that won just 3 other games last season.
There is good reason for optimism around the Gophers this season, they bring back plenty and should have an improved offensive coordinator situation. But they were not impressive against the lesser competition so I wouldn’t trust them with such a huge line. Like, this line is 6 points bigger than the line between Michigan and a (probably) bad Colorado State team. 16 points more than MSU vs Western. Just seems too big.
Biggest Narritve to watch:
Will Kill and Fleck throw actual, real, punches at midfield?
Friday, September 2.
7:00 pm
Michigan State (-23.5) vs. Western Michigan
This isn’t really where it starts for MSU but this is an important season. Widely picked for major regression, it’s important they stay afloat to ensure they carry on some momentum from last season.
Western Michigan has been a decent MAC program for a few years now but they also have a new QB who will probably be worse than the very good Kaleb Eleby and Sky Moore. If it was last years version of Western we could actually learn something about how much MSU has improved its secondary. (I remember last season UofM people were genuinely terrified of WMU because Michigan’s secondary had been hot garbage the year before)
With the teams that are here, it’s hard to see much reason for this to be close or terribly interesting. Western probably won’t suck because they’ve built a decent foundation as a program but they don’t figure to be good enough to challenge any competent Big Ten team.
Pick: Take MSU. Three touchdowns doesn’t seem far fetched, Western should be more run-focused this season which doesn’t scare MSU even if their secondary is still terrible. And given all the outward doubt being placed on the Spartans for this season and it being primetime on ESPN MSU has good reason to run it up a bit as a sign of strength.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Will Western throw the ball at will? Because Western doesn’t have some of the talent in the passing game as last season it won’t mean much if MSU shuts down the passing attack of WMU. But if Western does toss the ball around it will make the Spartans nervous for the rest of the year.
8:00 pm
Illinois (+1.5) @ Indiana
Illinois being the underdog here is… a choice?
Indiana looking to bounce back from the year from hell against an Illinois team that didn’t suck last season and might be better this year.
It’s hard to say because Indiana has a lot of turnovers and they are the sort of program that isn’t big enough to have the depth chart be way over-analyzed. That said, they lost some of the guys that had led them to their previous highs and it isn’t clear who’s replacing them. Their new offensive coordinator is a guy known for running non-offenses that do nothing but throw screens to make up for terrible offensive lines.
Indiana is at home, maybe this is the big comeback, but this seems clearly an Illinois game to win. Illinois has a clear identity as a scrappy defense that can run the ball down your throat, exactly the type of team that you would expect Bret Bielema to create.
Pick:
Take Illinois and the points, I’d even consider Illinois's money-line to win outright (+108). Indiana might bounce back to being competent but we pretty much know that Illinois is competent.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Can Indiana do anything on offense against a salty Illini defense? If they get stone-walled the whole game then it will likely be another long season for an Indiana program cursed by being in the Big Ten East.
Saturday September 3
12:00 pm (as god intended for college football to be played)
Michigan (-30.5) vs. Colorado State
Michigan plays no one in the non-conference. Colorado State has designs on being a high-level G5 team, there is real money in the program and they made a good hire with Jay Norvell. They will probably still be very bad this year. They went just 3-9 last season and while some improved coaching and transfers from his previous stop at Nevada should help, that should only do so much. The irony is that this is probably Michigans toughest out of conference opponent this season purely because this program at least has a pulse.
Pick: Michigan. Many flaws in the Harbaugh era but Michigan rarely plays with their food against overmatched teams in Ann Arbor. Its a big spread but with the QB competition going on there is reason to suspect that Michigan may keep their foot on the gas longer than usual as well.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Cade McNamara and the offense. Michigan has not named a starting QB so seeing how Cade looks and how much Michigan, who has said all the right stuff about throwing the ball more this season, goes about their business. Colorado State shouldn’t be good enough to tell us much about how Michigan’s defense weathers the losses of last season.
Iowa (20.5) vs South Dakota State
Not much to say here. No this is not the Dakota college that wins every national title in FCS.SDSU is a solid program that may be good enough to keep from getting totally blown out of the water by an Iowa team with no offense but they are very much still an FCS team.
Pick:
I guess I’d take Iowa and those points, once again SDSU is not the kind of team to stick with a proper P5 team, but I wouldn’t be confident in that because Iowa is so inept offensively that they may simply fail to score the points needed to cover.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Can Iowa do anything on offense? They figure to have an elite defense once again but last season reached new lows even for Iowa on the offensive side of the ball.
Maryland (-24.5) vs Buffalo
Another nothing-burger. Buffalo isn’t even a good MAC team and Maryland knows that they need these easy games to have a successful season so they should smoke them.
Pick:
Maryland. The Terps have done really well out of conference under Mike Locksley and no reason to suspect anything different this season. Holes will be exposed when they play real teams but they should roll Buffalo.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Buffalo is so bad that they shouldn’t really test Maryland but we can at least pretend to get some info about a defense that may be awful for the Terps.
Rutgers (+7) @ Boston College
An intriguing game for Rutgers to start their season, also a fairly baffling one. I have no idea why anyone in the athletic department thought this program should play anyone with a pulse out of conference.
BC has a really good QB in Phil Jurkovec, and while BC isn’t thrilled with their current standing in college football, they’ve gone to a bowl every year since 2015. This is to say that BC is a much stronger program than Rutgers, even if Greg Schiano has Rutgers going in the right direction.
In addition, Rutgers lost a few guys and some of the improved talent that Schiano is bringing in isn’t likely to be ready to contribute yet, combine that with a tough schedule and this is a hard year to be optimistic for Rutgers.
Pick:
Take BC as the favorite. Rutgers may yuck this up enough to stay close but they still haven’t shown an ability to really compete with any team that has a pulse.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Can Rutgers win? They have rebounded from being one of the worst programs in all of FBS but they have yet to beat anyone who is worth anything. Going on the road to beat a BC team with an NFL QB would be a pretty huge sign of progress for this program.
7:00 pm
Wisconsin vs Illinoise State:
Yeah I don’t care. Only thing worth watching here is if Grahm Mertz can hit some passes.
7:30 pm
Notre Dame (-17.5) @ ohio state
Biggest game on the slate. For me personally, it is a big collision of beliefs I have. On one hand, I still think that ohio is vulnerable to physical teams that can run the ball down their throat, theoretically, Notre Dame can do that. On the other hand, Notre Dame is the most fraudulant program in the country. They won 11 games and were inches from making the playoffs last season without beating a single team that finished the season ranked, they have not won a NY6 bowl since 1994. To put bluntly, Notre Dame loses when it plays elite teams.
Marcus Freeman may change all that with his emphasis on recruiting, but that impact won’t be felt for a few years. At the end of the day, I think Notre Dame is good enough to test ohio and allow us to learn something about them this season, but not good enough to put a serious challenge to the buckeyes.
Pick:
My gut says Notre Dame isn’t getting the doors blown off. ohio played 3 teams last season who had even close to their talent level and two of them beat their asses up and down the field while the third (Utah) came very close to winning. That said, I just don’t respect Notre Dame to not let it get out of hand late in the game. tentatively take ohio.
Biggest Narrative to watch:
Can ohio stop the run? It’s something I hammered in the season preview. For all the fawning about ohio’s offense and new DC, I’ve yet to see a compelling argument that they have some sort of fundamental change that will allow them to stop physical running games. Even if the buckeyes win comfortably if the Irish move the ball on the ground effectively it’s officially time to wonder about ohio being overhyped.