How Do The Pistons Find Enough Spacing
I was literally started on a piece titled “who plays the 4?” looking at the different pros and cons to various players the Pistons can have play the 4 spot, this was because it was a straight-forward and simple premise that required little extra effort on my part. Unfortunately the esteemed Detroit Bad-Boys literally just put up a piece with a very similar title and while it is moreso a Marvin Bagley piece, I’m going to shelve mine for at least a week or so.
In the end, one of the big points of who is playing the 4 is that the Pistons need to find shooting somehow, so for now lets swap it up while keeping the larger idea of what I was writing.
This seems like a bit of a silly question because literally every team is asking it because shooting is important in today’s NBA.
That’s true, almost every team is trying to toe the line of having enough shooting to run a viable modern offense, while keeping enough defensive capabilities to field a viable NBA defense. Once you have a star or two to build around, this balancing act is basically the central job of modern team building.
I like that we are just assuming Cade is that star now. Nice.
I’m all in on Cade. The Pistons need one other guy to pop but they have the core dude they need.
So. Shooting.
Yes. The core issue here is that the Pistons are not really even attempting that balancing act coming out of the offseason, in fact it’s not clear they are even trying to get onto the balance beam at all.
It is important to note here, that there is a difference between players who are proven and who we think can be good. Within that it is important to remember most players don’t actually make career-changing improvements in their career. So while it is nice to think that *insert player here* is going to find a 3 point shot, most don’t.
Lets start with something of an elephant in the room.
Is Saddiq Bey actually going to be a good shooter?
Saddiq is certainly not a bad shooter, the volume is high, the shot is quick, the looks are sometimes tough. That said this needs to be pointed out to certain circles of Pistons fandom.
Saddiq Bey shot just 34.6% from last season, over his two-year career he is at 36.1%. That is dead-on league average over his two seasons. Once again, his volume pushes him firmly into the plus category, but unless players are taking heaps of pull-ups, 36% does not make an elite shooter. With his shooting so far he can be an effective 3 and D guy, but if he wants to keep a large offensive role on a Pistons team with a functional offense he either needs to make huge strides with the ball in his hands or take a serious step up as a shooter.
You really hate Saddiq
I don’t. I just remain in perpetual break-pumping mode given the conversations that pop up around him.
The Young Backcourt
Assuming that the Pistons do start Cunningham and Ivey out of the gate, the backcourt is a huge question mark. Cade projects as a positive shooter especially with all the pull-ups he takes off the dribble. That said, he did shoot just 31% from deep last season, teams respected his shot largely because of how pitiful the other offensive options were but if other dangers arrive, defenses will start to sag off him to counter.
Jaden Ivey shot really well last season at Purdue and was a good shooter in high school. And yet, his form is slightly funky and he shot miserably in his freshman season. Beside that, rookies are always a question mark as shooters. Three-point shooting often doesn’t translate from college to the pros.
These two are probably the biggest swing pieces. You would hope Ivey’s college numbers were for real and Cade stabilizes after a rough rookie season. If both players are dangerous shooters with an appetite for off-the-dribble looks that can combine with even an “ok” shooting Bey to make the offense work. On the flip side, its basically impossible to win in the modern NBA with a poor shooting backcourt. These two really hold the key.
How do we survive at the 4
This is bigger than just shooting as the Pistons basically have no real power forwards on the entire roster but shooting is the focus here. The Pistons seem to want Isaiah Stewart to take control but that is a huge ask. Most teams basically play wings at the 4 and to ask a guy who has taken just over 100 threes in his career to suddenly be a genuine stretch 4 is not ideal. On top of that, even if Stewart can shoot 35% on solid volume, he is still likely lacking in other offensive skills that modern 4s need and it isn’t clear how all of this will impact his defensive production. People can point out how on this possession he stuck with *insert perimeter player here* but holding up on a handful of switches is different from being asked to guard Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for an entire game.
Other than Stew, who seems to be the most likely opening-day starter, the Pistons could start Kelly Olynyck for a proven shooter but that is a big defensive sacrifice that may be unpalatable for Dwane Casey. Isaiah Livers theoretically fits the bill of a plus shooter who is competent defensively but that means trusting a guy who has played less than 400 minutes as a starter. Marvin Bagley has been an actively bad shooter his whole career and is a genuine disaster defensively. Someone somewhere is yelling “what about Kevin Knox!?” but you can read my post on him for my opinion there.
After the back-court, this is the second big swing-spot. The Pistons need one of these guys to work. Whether that is Stew actually doing it and being a real shooter, Livers proving his stint last season was real, or Marvin Bagley has some sort of epiphany. If none of that happens I would guess that Olynyck is the last-resort stop-gap for the season as the most proven shooter who isn’t game-breakingly bad defensively.
The Bench:
First off, its possible that Alec Burks starts. That would solidify the starting lineup a bit with a proven shooter, but for now we are assuming he’s off the bench. Outside of him, Killian Hayes has been an actively bad shooter, Hamidou Diallo has shot a decent percentage as a Piston but takes so few that no one guards him, and the big situation is likely only worse here. Even if you plug Olynyck into the bench-mob there is a good chance the Pistons bench has 3 negative shooters between Hayes, Diallo, and whoever the backup center is.
WE BELIEVE IN KILLIAN HAYES
I actually do have some faith in Hayes, but remember what I said about proven shooters. Diallo is likely a lost cause and while Killian might sort it out, its been bad enough for him that it’d be foolish to count on it.
The good news for the bench mob is that Casey has typically not been a coach who rolls with a pure bench lineups very often. The big situation remains problematic here as it seems unlikely that enough guys put it together to keep it balanced. Most likely the Pistons will spend at least short stretches with miserable spacing.
So… whats this mean?
The Pistons need Ivey and Cunningham to be who they were meant to be, and need at least one of the bigs to find a shot (or prove to have staying power as an NBA player with Livers).
The wider message here is that even though there are lots of fuzzy feelings around the Pistons after a good offseason, Jerami Grant is going to be severely missed. There is a decent chance that this team is going to be miserable to watch for long stretches and it will be a year-long exercise in their ball-handlers learning to pass out of double-teams.
Lets be positive though.
I genuinely think Livers can play, don’t want to pencil him in as a starter but he can be a real rotation guy which helps. So when you consider that you’ve got 96 big-man minutes to fill and only half of those need a shooter (in the end it doesn’t matter if it is your center or not, you can survive with one non-shooter on the floor), at least 40 of those minutes can go to Livers and Olynyck. Meaning that the Stewart/Bagley/Duren/Knox combination needs to only buy like 8 minutes of semi-competent shooting to get the Pistons to par.
This will require some good rotational set-up by Dwane Casey which isn’t a great thought to have, but it’s doable.
So this is all a warning about something you don’t think will actually be an issue?
A couple of injuries to the wrong guys could send this spiraling in a hurry. Mostly I wanted to put the thought into the minds of Pistons fans as a thing that could be a big issue this season. It also connects to why I wasn’t a fan of the Kevin Knox deal. I would’ve preferred to just sign Tony Snell who isn’t very good, but we know people guard him. It would’ve at least helped to ensure that the young Pistons players would be playing offense in a more friendly environment.