How real is the Pistons defense?
The Pistons currently sport the 5th best defensive efficiency in the league, allowing 101.5 points per 100 possessions. How real this is takes a couple of different paths.
First off, we can pretty much guarantee that they won’t remain even close to this good for no other reason than that this isn’t how NBA basketball works in the modern era. Last season the best defense in the league was the Cleveland Cavaliers and they allowed just under 110 points per 100 possessions, so even if the Pistons are actually the best defensive outfit in the league they will assuredly not be this stingy all season.
The flip side to that though, is that even though the Pistons’ stat profile lines up with being pretty fake on the defensive end, even with some serious regression they could still be a high-level defense. The most important note from this is probably more so that the Pistons have played 3 bad offensive teams. Last season the Heat, Hornets, and Bulls ranked 25th, 30th, and 24th in offensive efficiency. Even if all three units are better this year none of them are likely to be anything better than mediocre on offense. Of course, this is still a huge step forward for the Pistons, but regardless of stat profile, it would be foolish to slap the “elite defense” label onto a team that has played such weak offenses.
What about the stat profile?
Regardless of variance, 3 games aren’t a good enough sample size to say anything with much confidence but we can still make decent guesses.
After the first three games the Pistons are an average defensive rebounding team (currently 14th in DR%), they are fouling the 9th most in the league, creating the 3rd lowest number of turnovers, and while the Pistons have given up more points off of turnovers than any other team in the league, the Pistons are actually the 11th best fast break defense in the league so they are not getting killed in transition.
All of these things are things that tend to be less variable. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Pistons generated more turnovers given how much length they have on the floor for much of the game, but they are also playing a conservative defensive style (more on that in a moment). The defensive rebounding will be something to monitor because you would hope with the amount of size they have on the floor they would clean their own glass better, but this also lines up with the fact that we know Isaiah Stewart is quietly a mediocre defensive rebounder.
The one aspect of the defense that we would expect to hold up is the blocked shots. The Pistons are second in the league and the combination of Duren and Thompson is a nightmare in the paint not to mention that their current starting lineup features 3 other guys who can get you as well.
The main thing that has allowed the Pistons defense to be so effective is that opponents are shooting like crap against them. Opponents are shooting just 39.2% from the field against Detroit, good for 2nd in the league. Part of that is good defense but last season the league’s top mark was 45.3% (Memphis) so this is where the regression will come. As one respite, the Pistons 3 point defense doesn’t look as fluky as opponents are shooting 34% from deep, That is still an awesome number but at least it isn’t several points better than last season’s league leaders. Although even with the 3-point numbers, the Pistons’ opponents have taken just 23.3 attempts per game from beyond the arc, the next lowest is 27.5. The combination of allowing such a comically low number of threes with a comically bad shooting percentage line up with facing 3 poor offenses paints a pretty clear picture that this isn’t going to last…
HOWEVA
Despite the fact that we can say with certainty that as the Pistons face better offenses they will allow more 3s and won’t make every team shoot as though they were Josh Smith, ALL OF THESE NUMBERS ARE PART OF THE PLAN AND THE RESULT OF EXCELLENT DEFENSIVE DESIGN AND PROCESS.
What does that mean?
Even though things have gone unreasonably well in the first three games, this is exactly what this defense is designed to do. Take a moment to watch Zach LaVine’s highlights from last night, seriously, watch the whole thing and count the number of times the Pistons send a second defender at him or even help in a major way off of a shooter.
That’s right, they just didn’t. Zach LaVine put on one of the most absurd shot-making clinics you will ever see and the Pistons couldn’t even be bothered enough to have their big men take a few extra steps out to him when he got a screen. Other than basic interior rotation (typically by Duren obviously) they stuck to shooters, fought over screens to avoid easy pullup threes, and sat back in the paint to avoid easy layups. The Pistons have completely punted on the mid-range to sell-out against threes and layups.
Wait… an analytically designed defense actually works???
That’s right, analytics are good. This defensive scheme is exactly how Zach Lavine ends up with 51 points and 0 assists, it’s how one guy scores 51 points while shooting nearly 60% from the field but the team still shoots just 42%. This is also part of why the Pistons are not generating many turnovers FWIW, they are playing an exceptionally conservative defensive scheme here. So while opponents will shoot better than this and will find adjustments to attack them in smarter ways (this defensive approach is not in any way new, It first hit the mainstream way back with the KG/Paul Pierce/Ray Allen Celtics by way of then assistant coach Tom Thibodeau) but this is the end-goal. In particular, if LaVine had been more willing to pass the ball to an open Vucevic a few more times as Duren sat back in the paint things may have turned out differently.
Regardless, the extreme numbers that have resulted from the first three games will not hold up, but the general results and vibes should continue. Especially while they are putting so much size and athleticism on the floor. The real key here though is Duren, no one wants anything to do with him inside, if you go back to those LaVine highlights there are multiple times he could’ve attacked and just chose to take a jumper instead, Duren is all-encompassing in a way that young big men rarely are.
So what is the bigger picture here?
One big question is how long the Pistons continue to roll out such defense-first lineups. While the defense will have some regression against the Pistons it’s hard to comb through the offensive numbers and think that they will get much better with the lineups they’ve put out there. So when the defensive regression comes they may have no choice but to trade some defense for offense more often.
While Duren is the lynchpin that has made the defense work, constantly having 5 guys on the floor with positional size and awareness makes this tough to deal with. The Pistons have hardly switched but when one is forced they know all the guys out there can at least be respectable against different positions, and the sheer length of the defenders makes the idea of passing the ball out to the perimeter even more implausible. This is a screenshot from the moment LaVine decided to pullup rather than drive: (sorry for potato quality)
Duren has completely left the perimeter but because its Killian hayes and Ausar Thompson on the opposite covering 3 guys that is not an easy pass to make, and because everyone on the floor has length and moves pretty well you would need an excellent succession of pin-ball passes until you got to the open man. If Bojan is in place of either Killian or Ausar passing to the opposite side is far less daunting. (purely as an aside this is one thing that makes me even more on board with Ivey as a starter because even for some of his flaws, he has solid length and moves well enough that I think you can still pull this off with him out there without much trouble)
Basically, especially in such a conservative defensive scheme, there is immense power in every guy on the floor being a plus defender and if you lose one of them it will almost have an outsized impact if that makes sense. Putting Bojan in the starting lineup will probably be better on the whole (and the lineup data with regards to Alec Burks backs up that as nice as the defense is spacing and shooting is probably still better) but the defense would definitely suffer. The good news though is that if Duren keeps up this level of defensive ability I think the Pistons could go all offense and Duren can still keep them more than afloat on defense.
On the whole though, even though the defense will almost certainly face big regression at some point, and when you factor in that the Pistons will probably end up having more minutes taken in their rotation by offensive players as the season goes along they are probably going to trend closer to average on defense than elite, but even so, there are two things to remember.
“Average” is still a huge improvement that everyone should be happy with.
The foundation is excellent, and if Duren keeps up this level of play they could get to elite within the next couple of seasons.
Go Pistons.