Isaiah Livers Season Preview
Continuing the player previews. We’ve got Isaiah Livers up for no reason other than that it was just his birthday.
About last season:
Livers arrived in Detroit via the draft. Taken 42nd overall out of the University of Michigan, he also played his high-school ball locally in Kalamazoo Michigan.
Livers was hurt through the first half and change of the season, he spent some time with the G-League before getting some run at the very back-end of the season when the Pistons more or less fully gave their best general patton.
The numbers and performances from Livers come with a big grain of salt for being both small sample size and classic end-of-season mush. That said, Livers performed very well. Livers shot 42% from deep on high volume, while generally avoiding disaster defensively and even showing some ability to grab contested rebounds. The ceiling here isn’t that high, almost all of his shots were spot-up threes and he doesn’t project more than a competent defender, but he did show a flash of being an awesome 3 and D wing who can play the 4, something the Pistons desperately need this season. In that small sample size he also had the best net-rating of any Piston who played any sort of regular minutes.
Offense:
Livers ability to shoot is his best attribute, also the one we have the most faith in. The sample size in the NBA remains small enough that we shouldn’t put total belief in him being an elite shooter but Livers shot 41% on nearly 400 attempts over 4 years at UofM. Livers isn’t likely to be in the vein of JJ Reddick, shooting around screens and being an offensive centerpiece just as a shooter, but he should at minimum be a competent spot-up shooter with a quick release. As a hold-over from the John Beilein era at Michigan, he is also smart in space without the ball, having a knack for finding the open spots to receive passes in.
There was not much off the dribble game in his rookie season, taking 77% of his shots from beyond the arc and being assisted on almost 90% of all made baskets. In college he had ability as a shot creator that there is hope for him to deliver some semblance of pump-and-go game as a counter to his spot-up shooting but that is probably the most self-creation to hope for.
Once again, small sample-size and all but Livers really looked like the real deal as an ideal stretch 4. Deadly shooting, smart movement, and good ball-movement.
Defense:
The defense held up surprisingly well for Livers. This was the question mark for a guy who has decent size but not great athleticism for an NBA wing. As a 4 his effort and strength could shine through to make up, but there would be questions of how he holds up if opposing guards tried to hunt him more. I was particularly impressed with rebounding, Livers didn’t put up monster stats but the eye-test said he got a lot of contested boards in a way that many smaller 4s don’t.
There is a good chance that if Livers is unable to establish himself in a larger role, the defense will be at fault. It is entirely plausible that put in a more exposed situation than “limited minutes when the team is in full tank mode” will see offenses search him out and punish him. On the flip side, he may be as sturdy as he looked in those limited minutes.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
I think that the Pistons hope he wins the starting 4 spot. Based on his limited sample-size the “everything goes right” situation for the Pistons would probably be: Cade/Ivey/Bey/Livers/whoever for a lineup with two-way stability, ball-handling, and spacing. In particular, a theoretical Bey/Livers combo at forward would seem like a great pairing with the Pistons two ball-dominant guards.
Are you sure about that lineup? Even on the upside, it seems like that may be very light on defense.
It’d be a concern. Even if we assume that Stew/Duren/whoever is a genuine stalwart defensively, neither Livers or Bey project as more than workable defenders. Both Cade and Ivey have higher potential but usually ball-dominant stars (which is what we hope both of them are) are not exactly stellar. There’s a good chance that in the long-run the Pistons need a genuine wing defender, but for now there is no one on the roster that comes even close to fitting that bill. So no point in speculating on that right now.
Good point. As you were.
The Pistons will likely make Livers earn that starting spot even if they really want him to get it. As I said in the Kelly Olynyk preview, my belief is that Olynyk will get the nod out of the gate, but the Pistons will give Livers plenty of opportunities to take it. If Livers is the starter from day one it will be due to his play in training camp.
So I see him playing as a backup to start the season and then his minutes adjust from there. If he plays well he will get more minutes and more responsibility, if he plays poorly he may be phased out of the rotation. The one thing that helps out Livers is that the Pistons are so lacking in biggish people who can shoot that he shouldn’t have to play too well to at least stick in the rotation.
Where he fits on the floor:
Spacing the floor for the Pistons ball-handlers and hopefully being sound enough defensively to not ruin everything. Classic 3 and D type.
Biggest question for the season?
Can he hold up under more scrutiny? As a second-round pick it’s nice if he’s even a back-end rotation guy, but he showed potential to plug a huge hole for the Pistons this season if everything clicks. Can he replicate the shooting as a starter? Will he survive on defense against tougher assignments?
Worst Case Scenario:
Last season was classic “end of season fodder” and he’s just not that guy. Livers doesn’t hold up defensively and the shooting regresses. He doesn’t make it to year three. The Pistons go forward without any clue what to do at the 4 spot.
Best Case Scenario:
It wasn’t a mirage, Livers is genuinely an elite shooter and competent defender. He solidifies himself as the starter early in the season and is the “guy that wasn’t supposed to hit that did” to push the Pistons up a notch. Both he and Bey even make enough defensive progress that they don’t seem unworkable together. The Pistons have an ideal pair of versatile forwards who can shoot, defend, and provide a dash of creation themselves.
The play of last season that resulted in him having the highest net rating of anyone who really played shows up as a genuine glue-guy who raises the ceiling of every lineup he’s in.
Official Prediction:
The shot is for real, the defense is not. His effort and toughness combines with offensive output to earn the starting job (or at least close to it in terms of minutes played) but the defense is a major problem in many matchups to the point that we know he isn’t the long-term answer.
That said, its still a positive season for Livers, who is clearly a rotation NBA player who also provides enough competency to let the ball-handlers operate in a friendly environment. Livers shortcomings are less about him and more about the fact that the Pistons have no good options at power forward.
Basically, I predict Livers as being a slightly more offensive and less defensive version of Anthony Tolliver. (Tolliver was a bit bigger and more athletic as a defender but also Livers does project as a slightly better shooter) Which is basically a guy that you are comfortable with as your 5th starter, but is also clearly a bit over their head as a full starter. Which, just as a reminder, is a highly positive outcome for a 2nd round pick.