Isaiah Stewart Season Preview
Its officially preview season??
Yeah. There might still be some other stuff and some non-hoops content, but its preview time. Please note that some of the guys who just got posts (like the new guys) will have their previews pushed back a bit just for variety's sake.
Got a teal take?
If it’s an alternate I’m good with it. The teals are bad as a primary jersey but are the right mix of goofy, cool, but still vaguely connected to the primary color scheme to work as an alternate you wear 8 times per season.
About last season:
Isaiah Stewart took the step from bench-big to cementing himself as the Pistons’ starting center last season. Starting all 71 games he played in and playing the 3rd most total minutes on the team. Stewart was a steadying defensive presence in the middle for a team that was totally lacking in that area.
Despite being a steadying presence on defense and mostly looking competent as a starter, he did statistically regress in most key areas. His scoring efficiency dropped by nearly 5 percentage points despite being assisted on a higher number of his buckets, his block and steal rates both dropped by meaningful amounts, and the rate at which he scored dropped from 13.3 points per 36 minutes to 11.7 points per 36 minutes. Basically, all the things that get casuals excited about low-minute players did in fact turn out to be somewhat of a mirage. The one metric that improved is that his rebounding took a slight uptick which is nice.
His defense was still awesome.
His defense was good. That said, he didn’t budge the Piston defense when he was on the floor vs when he was off. When he was off the floor the Pistons’ defense was .01 points per 100 possessions worse. This is especially disconcerting given that you can’t go to the primary excuse of “well he had a good defensive bench unit that would get rolled by starters” because when Stewart wasn’t on the floor the highest minutes guys in his place were: Marvin Bagley, Kelly Olynyck, Trey Lyles, and Luka Garza. Not exactly a murder’s row of defenders. That isn’t to say Stewart isn’t an impactful defender, but it does throw some cold water on the people proclaiming him to be the second coming of Ben Wallace.
Why do you hate Isaiah Stewart?
I really like Stew. I just like him better when he isn’t being compared to maybe the greatest defender in history.
Lets look to next season
What position will he play?
Feel like this has to be where we start looking toward the coming season. A great deal of talk around Stewart has been him theoretically playing the 4. This deserves a whole post but to put it plainly this seems like a very bad idea and would be a bad sign for Stewart’s tenure in Detroit. Even if Stewart develops a three-point shot, that three-point shot is still more valuable as a center than as a power forward. From my view, this switch would signify that the Pistons know he isn’t anything more than a back-end rotation guy as a center and figure that the Pistons are so short at the 4 that they will give him a shot there before giving up on him.
That’s really mean.
Its also true. If they were thrilled with him as a center they would not be trying to force him into the 4-spot.
HOWEVA
I actually think it’s a moot point. My guess is Stew will be the opening night starter at the 5 and he will not do more than spot minutes at the 4.
Is this insider info based on real things you’ve heard?
Nope. Stewart as a 4 is a terrible idea, I don’t love Dwane Casey but he isn’t brain-dead. They may be forced to have him buy some minutes there because they are so short-handed at the position but not beyond that. He’s going to start at center and his power-forward play is “break glass in case of emergency.” The problem is that it will probably be an emergency with some regularity.
You are going to look so dumb when he’s awesome at the 4
I’d happily take that “L” but for him to work there he will have to be a fundamentally different player from the player he has been. That might happen! It occasionally does!
But usually it doesn’t.
Correct. As such, the rest of this preview will assume Stewart is a center who may be forced into some power-forward duty because the Pistons have no other choice. Back to the normal preview.
Offense:
Stewart will need to improve his scoring efficiency. That may be as a 3-point threat, it may be as an improved finisher, and it may be with a mid-range game. But a TS% of 55% while being assisted on nearly 70% of his field goals on a low volume of shots is not going to cut it.
Becoming a viable 3-point shooter is still a big ask for a guy who never shot threes before the pros and has taken very few so far, but his physical limitations make it very unlikely that he improves to a meaningful place as a finisher inside. I will also continue to bang that drum that if he isn’t comfortable taking threes at a high volume he should just take some mid-range shots.
Mid-range bad
It’s bad because it isn’t as efficient as other stuff but he’s so bad as a finisher that it isn’t a big deal for him. Even if it isn’t much spacing, if defenders have to stick with him past the free-throw line it still gives more value than missing layups.
Also, you don’t tell him to take mid-rangers so he takes them forever. He takes midranges until he has a real comfort level taking jumpers and then steps out beyond the arc. He took some jumpers in high school and college, the volume in the NBA is tiny but still not terrible. Ideally, he just takes threes, but if he isn’t comfortable there yet, start a bit smaller.
Anything other than scoring?
Stewart has remained a non-passer even as a big and hasn’t shown much tact as a screener. These are things that often come with time but it would be very encouraging to see him make progress in that area.
Basically, Stewart doesn’t have any offensive skill that rates as any type of a plus. He needs something.
Defense:
Despite the on/off numbers from before, there is little doubt that Stewart is a solid defensive player. His physical limitations matter but he provides some rim protection, can provide resistance to bigger post-up brutes, and isn’t toast if he gets caught in space. Other than Nerlens Noel the Pistons didn’t improve defensively this offseason so he will still have a lot of holes to plug on that end.
The main key to watch for is if he can recapture the higher production of his rookie season without skyrocketing his fouls. Usually, when a player in his mold goes from low-minutes backup to high-usage starter their fouls get completely out of control. Stewart instead played far more conservatively and actually fouled less than before, but came at the expense of steals, blocks, and general disruptiveness. If he can find the balance of not fouling too much while being a more disruptive defender it would be a big jump for him.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
Mostly covered this already but I figure he will be the starting center and get spot-time at the 4 if needed. The only question here is whether or not Nerlens Noel can push Stewart for minutes.
Where he fits on the floor
Should be largely the same as last season. Defensively he is an anchor that you are comfortable switching onto the perimeter when needed, he is probably overburdened covering as much ground as he likely will be asked but that isn’t his fault.
Offensively he will work off the ball with the Pistons ball-handlers, trying to clear space with screens and finishing easy looks created for him. Hopefully, he also brings some semblance of spacing to the team this year as well.
You are really not buying the shooting
I do buy the shooting, I just don’t buy that he’s going to shoot well enough to really count as a stretch big. But I do think he will occasionally hit a three to at least provide a small punch from that range.
You mentioned him vs. Noel in your “Meet Nerlens Noel” post do you really think there will be a competition there?
Yes. Noel is genuinely solid defensively so if Stewart struggles I could see Casey going to him. This is a good thing though! Without the addition of Noel (or some other competent NBA center), it would be easy for Stewart to get too comfortable, competition for your place is never a bad thing and Stewart certainly seems like the type who will react well to that sort of competition.
Why do you just assume he can’t play the 4?
This will get its own post as we get closer to the season. I think people should be less focused on PJ Tucker, a unique player who is built like a truck, weighs the same amount as Isaiah Stewart, but is only 6’5. Also, as much as Tucker is a useful player, he’s at best the 5th starter on a good team, when the absolute best-case scenario is “can be the 5th guy” it’s not a great sign.
Also to be clear, I don’t think he absolutely can’t play the 4, he can’t play the 4 in meaningful minutes. Spotting a few minutes against other teams’ backups will probably be fine.
People should be less focused on PJ Tucker, a possible but still unlikely comp, and more focused on someone like Kevon Looney who is much closer to the upside of the player Stewart has actually been. An undersized center who doesn’t have stand-out physical attributes or offensive skills but plays hard and does all the right stuff to be an integral piece of a good team.
Biggest question for the season?
Can he find some sort of reliable offensive game? It can be anything. Shooting, finishing, passing, whatever. He needs to contribute offensively if he’s going to be a long-term starter.
Worst Case Scenario:
The offense makes no progress, the Pistons actually try him at the 4 but he never shoots well. The arrival of Noel (and to a lesser extent Duren) exposes that Stewart looked like a defensive rock mostly because everyone else was a disaster. By the end of the season Noel is starting and Duren has taken the backup minutes and Stewart is traded for basically nothing at the end of the season.
Best Case Scenario:
The shot isn’t just there, it’s excellent. Stewart is a danger from deep to the point he is now a plus offensive player. Defensively he sharpens up to the point he is a genuine high-level defender. Stewart cements himself as a killer role-playing big who spaces the floor on offense while being a plus defender. He put in the work to genuinely guard 4s so that he has the versatility to fit at either big spot depending on how the rest of the roster shakes out.
Official Prediction:
He plays center, by and large, Noel keeps the gap close enough that Stewart plays closer to 25 minutes per night than 35, but that allows him to play slightly with slightly more abandon to find more production. When Noel is healthy they make a ferocious 48 minutes of defensive effort that gives opponents trouble.
He shoots 34% from deep on low volume, not enough to be a real floor spacer but it boosts his scoring numbers (both in volume and efficiency) to a place that is more acceptable. He also progresses in both screening and passing to be functional as a roller and dribble-hand-off player. Still a mediocre offense player but not such a drag to the team as he previously was.
His long-term outlook depends heavily on Duren. Stewart plays well enough that the Pistons are comfortable with him as the long-term center, but if Duren comes out of the games roaring he becomes expendable.