Jalen Duren Season Preview

oh good not another college football thing

not nice

About last season:

Duren spent his lone college season in Memphis. The season was a bit of a mixed bag for Memphis, but Duren was a stunning success. 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 25 minutes per game. He seemed to translate the best version of himself to the college ranks, dominating with his size and athleticism without being totally reliant on it. He played with respectable effort, limited fouls to a reasonable point for such a young player, ran the floor hard, and was generally a menace. He was the AAC rookie of the year and made the All-AAC team.

Duren succeeding on a Memphis team that had real issues stands out to a significant degree. His 12 points per game led the team and the guards were not exactly stellar, but he kept right on chugging.

He arrived in Detroit as part of the salary dump trade with the Knicks, drafted 13th overall.

Offense:

Duren fits a clear prototype on offense (as well as defense) of the monster athlete rim-running big-man. He jumps out of the gym, has excellent hands, and is already strong enough to physically hold up against NBA players. This skill-set does have a clear ceiling as an NBA player but it also is mostly fool-proof out of the box. Duren’s defense will likely dictate how much he plays this coming season, but when he does he should be a killer roll-man.

He is burly enough to set effective screens and not get bumped off his roll, and tenacious is going up for lobs even in traffic. He also drew tons of fouls at Memphis, a skill that typically translates to the NBA level. While Duren isn’t exactly a knock-down free-throw shooter, he shot 62% at Memphis so he shouldn’t be a complete crap-shoot.

The only place where he doesn’t seem like a can’t miss player in his archetype is that he was only okay as a rebounder in college. Not bad by any stretch, but it stands out that a player as physically dominant as him had a total rebounding percentage of 18%.

Does he do anything other than dunk and be athletic?

Probably not anytime soon at the NBA level. He posted up some at Memphis and did show solid touch around the hoop when he couldn’t dunk, but he didn’t show the type of ability you need to get post touches with any regularity at the NBA level. There is good reason for optimism, his touch is good and he occasionally threw nice passes, but that would be something down the line.

Duren took a total of 1 three-pointer and as far as I can find he didn’t really take much of anything in the way of jumpers other than close-range ones. Once again, tons of players add that to their game eventually but that’d be a ways off. Not to mention that a player of Duren’s physical profile should be close to the rim whenever possible even if he could shoot.

Effectively there isn’t a whole lot of mystery on offense for Duren. Exactly how much tact he shows as a screener and roller is an open question but even if he needs time to learn the finer points of the skill, he’s so athletic that he will still be effective. This is a bit of an issue given Dwane Casey’s preference for not running pick and rolls but lets just not think about that right now.

Defense:

The potential is immense. He’s huge for his age, can block everything, and showed some ability to defend in space. Most likely he will fill even further into his body and not be suited to switching much, but you don’t need to be Draymond Green to survive in space when forced.

For now, the Pistons should try to keep him near the rim where he can block and effect shots with his rim protection. For such a young player who was billed as being pretty raw, he showed solid feelings and understanding of the defensive end of the court at Memphis. That said, it is good to temper expectations here. Young bigs usually suck on defense, committing dumb fouls and getting out of position. This is what will decide how much playing time Casey decides to allow Duren. Casey isn’t the stickler that some NBA coaches are, but he isn’t going to play you if you can’t defend, if Duren shows a more advanced understanding on the defensive end he could play a major role. More likely he is on the fringe of the rotation this season.

Long-term the future looks bright for Duren on the defensive end. There will be bigger questions about how he looks in a playoff series at some point but we can cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, just hope he doesn’t commit 8 fouls per 36 minutes and isn’t constantly getting cussed out by the coaching staff for missing rotations.

Where does he fit in the rotation:

Gave this away a bit already but my guess is he’s on the outside looking in. Duren isn’t a guy who can flex to the 4 to steal minutes like the other bigs on the roster and the Pistons have too many centers even without him.

HOWEVA

As stated above, if he isn’t completely lost defensively, he could very quickly find himself in a major role. He has a shot to be, comfortably, the most complete big on the roster. Once he figures things out he should be miles better defensively than Olynyck or Bagley, but he is so athletic that from day 1 he should easily outpace Stewart offensively.

Where does he fit on the floor?

Setting screens, rolling to the hoop, getting offensive rebounds, generally dunking the hell out of the ball. Probably a guy who will not shoot much when he can’t touch the net from where he’s standing. Likely to be erratic defensively but no doubt will produce some highlight-worthy blocks.

Worst Case Scenario:

Injuries force him into a major role for the whole season, he looks overwhelmed. The instincts and feel are simply not there on either end, his athleticism suddenly doesn’t stand out so much on an NBA court and he doesn’t have other goods to make up for it. Next offseason comes and he needs to make significant improvements to even be in the rotation,

Best Case Scenario:

Duren is the rare player who understands NBA defense from day 1. He conquers the starting job within the first couple of months of the season, is a god-send for the Pistons ball-handlers to have a proper roll-man, while blotting out the sun on defense. We don’t even reach the end of the season before it is clear that Duren is the franchise center of the Pistons.

Official Prediction:

Duren spends more time in the rotation than not. Playing for limited minutes but still playing. The defense is a mess and turnovers are an issue but his effort and athleticism make for entertaining and infectious play to a point that Casey can’t bring himself to keep Duren off the floor.

Coming out of the season Duren isn’t the clear-cut man in the middle for the Pistons, but looks well on his way there.