Kelly Olynyk Season Preview
About last season:
Olynyk arrived on a 3 year $37 million contract in free agency. He spent much of the early season injured and only played 40 games. When he was healthy he was underwhelming, shooting just 33.6% from deep (a career low) and playing only 19 minutes per game. The hope is that even when he played he wasn’t quite right because outside of some standout games where the shot fell his first season in Detroit was miserable.
He did still provide valuable spacing.
This is true, and the main reason for hope going forwards. Even in a season where he shot poorly he still commands a certain amount of respect, the Pistons scored nearly 4 points per 100 possessions more when Olynyk was on the floor.
Offense:
Offensively Olynyk’s main job is clear. He is the only big on the roster with a proven shot, as such hitting threes and drawing defenders out of the paint will be his primary duty on the offensive end. Olynyk remains capable of more, with a sneaky dribble-drive game (especially off of pump-fakes) and the capability to punish mismatches in the post. He can operate in the ideal offensive space of being solid with other ball-handlers just as a spacer, but also capable of slotting in with bench units as more of an offensive fulcrum.
The main intrigue for next season comes from the fact that the Pistons have such a lack of spacing which makes Olynyk a key figure for the Pistons’ offense. It’s possible less proven shooters will step up in a way that the Pistons don’t need Olynyk, but he likely will be asked to take on a bigger role this season.
In particular, Olynyk will likely be asked to play the 4 with greater regularity. The Pistons have few good options there. Olynyk has mostly been a center, and probably at his best there, but he has played power forward to some success in the past. It would probably be fair to say he is the team’s most proven power forward heading into the season.
Defense:
Olynyk is what he is on the defensive end which fluctuates between “bad but not fatally so” and “Totally unplayable.” Olynyk is not only lacking in foot speed to defend on the perimeter but also lacking in hops and physicality to be effective in the paint. He doesn’t really even get points for being in the right place all the time. In certain matchups, especially against opposing bench units, he can be hidden effectively enough. In some situations, he ruins the defensive integrity if skilled offensive players know or care enough to attack him.
If one of the other bigs doesn’t step-up it will put Dwane Casey in a real quandary. Olynyk is probably the only big on the roster who has the offensive ability to truly unlock the young ball-handlers on the team, but his defense may be untenable to play him enough.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
Uncertain. As of now, I would lean towards him being the opening night starter at the 4 next to Isaiah Stewart. The caveat is that the Pistons are likely eager to give that opportunity to almost anyone else who earns it which could even happen in training camp. In the long run, the Pistons will likely find someone else who brings better two-way play but even then Olynyk is almost certainly going to be a high-minutes bench player. Even in the ideal universe where, say, Isaiah Livers is actually capable of starting, Olynyk’s spacing potential is too much for the Pistons to not play significant minutes.
Dwane Casey may beg to differ.
I know Casey prefers defense. But he isn’t an idiot. The Pistons may not have enough spacing to form coherent offense even with Olynyk on the floor. Unless a truly remarkable and team-wide shooting improvement happens, he will be highly valuable.
Where he fits on the floor
Spacing for ball-handlers, being a bail-out option when playing with the bench, and perhaps even something akin to an offensive fulcrum in certain lineups. While trying not to ruin everything on defense.
Biggest Question for the season?
Can he refind his shot?
Over the last two seasons combined, he’s shot just 34% which is not ideal. His volume of shooting also declined over the same period. If he can get back towards being a borderline elite shooter with his combination of efficiency and volume it would be huge for the Pistons’ spacing issues, if he pukes up another mediocre season it would be very damaging. It will also be interesting if teams dare him to shoot a bit more after two straight mediocre seasons of shooting.
Worst Case Scenario:
Takes a couple of nagging injuries, never finds his shot, and starts to show that he’s past 30 years old. The offense is still worth something but not what it used to be and the defense has taken a step back to be unworkable.
He falls out of the rotation by mid-season but none of the younger players step up which leaves the Pistons with a genuine crisis of the power forward spot all year and heading into next Summer.
Best Case Scenario:
Olynyk recaptures his early-career form, bombing threes on high volume and at least keeping pace defensively.
His resurgence fills the void at the 4 spot and he starts the whole season, providing valuable offensive spacing that allows Cunningham and Ivey to thrive. One of the Pistons’ young centers (either Stewart or Duren doesn’t really matter which) thrives in the environment to the point that the Pistons know Olynyk is the archetype they need at the position long-term. Olynyk’s high level of play keeps him on the roster for the following season (the last year is not fully guaranteed) where he is either traded for solid value in the Summer or comes back for one more round.
Official Prediction:
He finds back a high level of shooting but the defense is terrible. The combination of small injuries and age has sapped what athleticism he has which means he cannot soak up major minutes, but he finds his offensive game back to where even if he’s a net-negative, he has a positive impact on the progression of the young guys. The Pistons make efforts to cover for his defensive liabilities by switching more when he’s on the floor and sometimes it works. But against effective ballhandlers who know how to truly hunt for him there is only so much that can be done.
He does not return for the final year of his contract.