Kevin Knox Season Preview
Here we are. Previewing Kevin Knox.
You don’t sound thrilled.
I’m not. But gotta get it over with.
About Last Season:
Played in just 30 games, the Knicks finally gave up on him as he was traded to Denver as part of the Cam Reddish trade. He arrives in Detroit from free agency on a 2 year deal with the second year being a team option.
Offense:
Knox is bad at almost everything. His lone bright spot is that he can shoot some threes, not very well, but he can hit some. His career mark from deep is just 34% on at least decent volume, but it’s hard to judge too much because even though the Knicks didn’t ship him away till last season, they had essentially already given up on him. As a rookie, he played a ton (28.8 minutes per game in 75 games, starting 57 of them) but in his second season he was below 20 minutes per game and by year three he was effectively out of the rotation, appearing in just 42 games and playing 11 minutes per game in those.
This is effectively the hope for Knox that the Knicks gave up on him too quickly when Thibbedou arrived, who is notorious for only playing guys he trusts defensively, and that with some actual opportunity to play in a development environment he can find himself back.
With that hope in mind, there is a useful offensive player here. Knox has confidence in shooting, and his height and high release meant he can shoot over defenders with ease. He pretty clearly isn’t ever going to learn to dribble well enough to come through on his potential as a creator for himself. However, he’s still wickedly athletic for use as a cutter and possibly even occasionally doing some screen and rolling himself.
The problem here is two-fold of course.
Even becoming viable as a shooting wing would mean significant improvement as a shooter. And the list of guys who would be good if they could just find a consistent outside shot is long and full of players who fall out of the league.
There is basically no hope for him other than as a spot-up shooter. Despite his size and athleticism, he’s shot below 40% inside of the arc, he is a total non-passer and hasn’t exactly shown a great feel for the game. The upside here is like… Tony Snell.
He’s only 23 so maybe he will improve in other areas.
It’s not impossible, but it’s pretty close. If Knox becomes anything better than a decent floor spacer it would be one of the more remarkable career turnarounds in recent memory.
Defense:
The offense was bad but this is worse. In theory, he has the size and athleticism to be effective on the defensive end. But he has a fatal combination of low motor and low awareness.
Once again, the hope here is that he was given up on too early and that his career clearly being on its last legs jolts him awake. Despite the fact that so far in his career his defense has been even worse than his offense, I’m more optimistic here. While the number of guys who find offensive potential that they hadn’t shown before is exceptionally low, there are plenty of players who found the will and desire to defend with their pro careers on the line.
I don’t know enough about Knox as a person to say with much confidence if he will find it in him, but being on a young team with a coaching staff focused on development is the right combination for him to become a competent defender.
Where does he fit in the rotation:
Probably on the outside of it. The Pistons have such a hole in terms of “large humans who can shoot” that he may see real playing time but unless he has some improvements it is hard to see. He is probably the 11th man in the rotation. So not a regular, but if injuries/foul trouble/poor play come for someone in the rotation he will likely be the first man up. Meaning that even if he isn’t in the rotation, there is a good chance we at least get a few weeks of him playing real minutes this season.
How does he hit the upside:
Rather than best and worst case scenarios we will just hit it here because the worst case is so obvious.
The Pistons are a positive environment for him. There is no spotlight or high expectations, there are at least 5 or 6 other young guys already here above him in that pecking order. The coaching staff gets down to the basics and Knox, aware that this may be his last stop on his way to the G-League embraces it. He finds his shot and works himself into a positive defender and he goes forward as a viable mid-rotation wing who fills a huge hole on the current roster.
Official prediction:
He has some decent moments, the defense isn’t a disaster, he’s still bad and this is his only season in Detroit as they decline his option for next season.
That’s pretty negative Joe
Look. We all have players that we believe in because we think we see something. Whatever we call that, I am the opposite of it for Knox. Maybe he hits enough threes to be useful on offense but I simply do not see the potential for him to become anything more than a back-end rotation player. His upside to me is Tony Snell, who is currently not on an NBA roster.
Also, given that this is such a huge hole in the roster, I think I would’ve rather just signed Tony Snell. Even though he isn’t good at least we know he can space the floor for the young ball-handlers a bit. If Knox flops like I think he will then the Pistons could be in such dire need of spacing that it adversely impacts the development of Cunningham and Ivey.
Say something positive
The Knicks were about the worst situation this guy could’ve been in for the last few seasons so maybe the change of scenery will do wonders. I’d be thrilled if it does.
I also want to emphasize that last sentence. I will gladly be wrong about the guys I doubt if they are good for the Pistons.