Killian Hayes Season Preview
Ready to definitely make some people angry no matter what I say?
About Last Season:
Hayes followed up a rookie season that can only be described as an unmitigated disaster with a sophomore effort that was… less of a disaster?
The eye test improved in some areas, but most numbers remained similar. He shot worse from deep, his overall efficiency improved but was still just a TS% of 46% which is unworkable for an NBA player. His counting stats were identical across the board, but he had fewer assists and turnovers.
The eye-test is still worth mentioning though. After moving to the bench he looked more aggressive and confident, occasionally getting to the hoop and facilitating for others better. The problem is that off the bench, even if a few numbers are marginally better, they are still awful. You can’t have a guard who shoots below 30% from deep and can’t finish at the hoop. Among players who played in at least 60 games last season, Hayes finished dead-last in scoring efficiency.
The best news is that he seems well on his way to reaching mammoth defensive potential. Defending multiple positions and eating the lunch of some pretty good players.
Offense:
Yeah, it’s brutal. Hayes is at a level of bad offensively that puts you out of the league regardless of defensive abilities. HOWEVA there is hope, so let’s focus on that right now.
For starters, Hayes isn’t exactly the second coming of Steve Nash but he clearly has a solid feel for the game and sees the floor well offensively. When Hayes gets going downhill he rifles accurate passes to the correct place with regularity, in the open court, his vision often is allowed to singularly shine. Even though he assisted less this season than as a rookie, he made significant progress in cutting out turnovers. In his rookie season, he averaged 7.4 assists per 36 minutes against 4.5 turnovers. This past season it was at 6.1 assists vs 2.4 turnovers. One more step forward in this region could see him approach elite levels of taking care of the basketball.
His shooting is terrible but we can still hold onto some hope from him being a better shooter before arriving in the NBA. Hopefully, that light clicks this season though because if not now, when?
The core issue remains he can’t score inside the arc either. If you are going to be an effective ball-handler in today’s NBA you have to be able to penetrate opposing defenses and Hayes simply doesn’t. Far too many of his drive attempts result in him not getting around his defender and puking up floaters. This also neuters his ability to make good passes because the defense doesn’t have to bend out of shape to counter his drives, which is why it’s so important for ball handlers to be able to get penetration.
The eye-test improved for Hayes later in the season when he was coming off the bench in terms of slicing into the defense. His field goal percentage inside the arc shot up to respectable levels, even if his overall efficiency was still terrible (dragged down by the fact he shot even worse from deep, just 21%, off the bench) but that is a starting point. His inside scoring/penetrating was still uninspiring later in the season, but there was at least something there to work with. The Pistons need to pray that improvement is a real thing that will carry into the coming season.
It’s unclear what the best path to push Hayes toward is best. On one hand, a Lonzo-Ball-style player who is effectively a shooting guard who can also pass seems like a good spot for him given his inability to get by defenders, if he suddenly showed up shooting 36% from deep next season he would pretty much be there.
The problem with this is that he clearly has the passing ability for a bigger role, so it will be a hard decision to basically punt on him as a primary ball-handler. Because there is still an (admittedly small) chance that he puts some stuff together and can still become a primary ball-handler, and the version of Killian that is a primary ball-handler is far more valuable than a Lonzo Ball type. Of course, this may be a moot point. Cade Cunningham is awesome and if Jaden Ivey lives up to the hype the Pistons may have no need of another lead ball-handler, which would make the Lonzo pathway very attractive.
Regardless of anything else, Hayes MUST find a way to put the ball in the basket this season. It doesn’t even matter how it is. Maybe he shoots league average from deep, maybe he goes full Reggie Jackson and just starts hitting those ridiculous floaters, maybe he finally channels his size and athleticism towards being an effective finisher, maybe he utilizes his size as a post-up threat who draws tons of fouls. Whatever it is, you can’t have a guard so incapable of scoring.
Ricky Rubio can’t score and he’s been a starting-caliber point-guard who’s consistently made his teams better when on the court. Why can’t he be like that? Hayes is a gifted passer and a good defender just like Rubio was.
In Rubio’s 6-year peak his TS% was 53%. He also shot 33% from deep in that time and he still barely held above that line to remain a viable starting option. Hayes remains miles off of what Rubio became.
That said, Rubio can still be a vision of hope for a guy who takes a few years to figure it out. Rubio’s TS% was 48% over his first 4 seasons and shot just 30% on no volume from deep. One would hope Hayes figures it out before his 5th season (because then he’s likely figuring it out somewhere other than Detroit) but the outline is there.
Defense:
VERY GOOD. People who have followed my work over the years will know well that I am typically the guy who heavily pumps the breaks on young players who people crown as great defenders. I received great backlash at times for doing this with regards to KCP, Stanley Johnson, and Bruce Brown. Basically, young guys suck on defense, and just because they stole the ball from James Harden a few times one night doesn’t mean they are actually elite defenders.
Hayes was so impressive this last season that I am putting the gas to the floor. This is a budding All-NBA defender without a doubt. He squashes fools on the ball, is a menace in passing lanes, is big enough to provide a dash of rim protection in emergencies, and slithers around screens with expertise. The Pistons will probably be too bad for him to get on the team, but if his offense doesn’t sink him lower than 25 minutes per game, he will 100% get buzz for all defense this season. The dude is an absolute terror on the defensive end.
Be more specific. Why did you poo-poo those other guys but not Hayes?
Hayes is excellent on a possession-by-possession basis that those other guys were not. Even if you make good plays defensively if you screw up possessions to give up easy buckets it doesn’t matter. Hayes was locked in basically every possession and avoided mistakes in a way that very few young players are. He also seems to possess a better amount of versatility. Stanley Johnson was huge but didn’t always move laterally well enough to stick with quicker ball-handlers and also couldn’t jump to provide any rim protection or rebounding. Both KCP and Bruce Brown could get exposed by bigger, stronger, players. Hayes doesn’t appear to have those blind spots.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
It seems pretty clear that the Pistons want to start Cade as the nominal point-guard and even if they decide Ivey isn’t ready to start right away, one would guess they would put Burks out as the off-guard before Hayes.
As such, he’s most likely off the bench for the season opener. From there, anything can happen. I remain firmly of the opinion that Cade is the only sure thing going forward for this team, which means that if Hayes plays well he could absolutely play himself into the starting lineup, if he plays poorly the Pistons have enough guard depth that he could fall completely out of the rotation. The one thing that may push him towards extra minutes, especially in crunch time, is that he should be the Pistons’ best perimeter defender by a country mile. And we know how much Dwane Casey loves to put defenders on the floor when it counts.
Where does he fit on the floor?
Defensive stopper. Offensively I have no idea and it will most likely be determined by what the coaching staff ask of him. Once again this comes back to “what role do we want to push him toward?” No matter what though, he will have a lot of ball-handling duties with the bench mob and get more off-ball time when playing next to Cade.
Worst Case Scenario?
No offensive improvements. Frustration with offensive output even impacts his defensive effort. The Pistons’ other guards thrive and Hayes falls out of the rotation and out of the picture. The Pistons either trade him for nothing or simply let him go without picking up the last year of his rookie deal.
Best Case Scenario?
The guy people hoped to see is actually in there. Late last season was just a launching pad. He never reaches the James Harden comparisons but finds his shot and his confidence as a driver. He is suddenly the perfect compliment to Cade Cunningham as a versatile defender that allows Cade to do more free-flowing (and less straining) defending. Capable of playing off the ball and hitting shots while also taking on significant ball-handling duties to let Cade just get buckets. The Pistons go forward with an excellent Killian/Cade/Ivey core.
Official Prediction:
The defense is still awesome, and the offense is less disastrous but it’s still not good. Everything is marginally better, his stats line up with his numbers off the bench but shooting 30% from deep. The Pistons are left with an existential problem after the season. The idea of Hayes remains exceptionally intriguing and he took a meaningful step forward, yet it’s clear he still isn’t good enough to be a starter. He probably gets one more shot since he’s still on his rookie deal, but he’s no longer being viewed as a genuine core piece anymore.
In the end, his future with the team may well depend on Jaden Ivey. Theoretically, Cunningham/Hayes/Ivey can work together, but it probably won’t in practice. If Ivey looks like the real deal out of the box then Hayes is probably done for unless he has a hoops epiphany. If Ivey struggles then it opens the door for Hayes to wrestle his way back into the Pistons’ future.
Why can’t he be a core member as a high-usage backup?
I mean, theoretically, he could. But elite 6th men almost always come in the “elite bucket getters” variety which, even the upside of Hayes is probably not going to be that. To put it bluntly, backup PGs are fairly replaceable. Maybe they keep Hayes on a team-friendly contract, but if he leaves you can find someone else to be the backup PG. Simply put, backups are not part of your core.