Lessons Learned without Cade
Not going to be filled with video clips or anything but I figured I went dark for like a week so I wanted to put down some thoughts about the 10 games since Cade went out. No particular order. I am about to finish my last class (hopefully) ever at which point there will be a lot more non-game-day stuff coming.
So anyways, the Pistons have played 10 games without Cade Cunningham, Some things that have happened are expected but not all of them so let’s talk about some of the lessons we can take from those 10 games. Feel free to share your own thoughts as well.
Killian Hayes looks like an NBA player.
This is something that is making wide rounds on much of the Pistons’ internet but it is still worth bringing up. In the last 10 games, Hayes is averaging almost 11 points per game on decent efficiency (including 39% from deep) with 6 assists against 1.7 turnovers per game. As the haters (which I am admittedly often a part of) will be quick to point out that those numbers are only “okay” and the fact that this counts as a huge step is more of a comment on how poorly Hayes’ career has gone so far, but even so, it is a huge step.
When combined with his pretty remarkable defensive abilities, the last 10 games represent a version of Killian that is a starting-caliber player. The thing that is really worth homing in on with his stats is 6 assists against less than 2 turnovers per game Despite playing heavier minutes and having a heavier ball-handling burden placed on him. Having an assist-to-turnover ratio better than 3 is borderline elite. It’s not like, Chris Paul territory or anything, but it is genuinely excellent. This is worth extra because it is mostly in line with his career numbers, but previously it was easy to chalk up an elite assist-to-turnover ratio to the fact that he wasn’t playing heavy minutes and spent minimal time actually playing point-guard. But here we are, we have a small but not worthless sample size of Killian playing major minutes against starters playing full-blown point-guard and he’s kept right on that pace.
Why does that matter?
For the future. The problem Killian currently faces is that, even if this recent stretch is the real Killian, is that the Pistons have two other guys on the roster who are already better as ball-handlers/primary offensive options. So if Killian is going to find a long-term fit in Detroit, he has to find a certain lane. This turnover margin, combined with his defense and theoretically newfound shooting from deep, could slot him into an easy and comfortable lane next to Ivey and Cunningham as the defensive-minded, efficient, dutiful ball-handler. It’s a goofy comparison but he could maybe be some version of Mario Chalmers with the Heatles. In this scenario Cade plays the role of LeBron, Ivey plays the role of Wade and then Hayes is Chalmers. In the last Heatles season, Chalmers averaged just under 10 points and 5 assists per game. No one ever mistook him as the guy running the show, but he still took up the ball and got the offense going with regularity. The numbers of Chalmers's time next to LeBron would almost point to a guy who was just a 3 and-D player but he was a real point guard even if LeBron and Wade obviously did most of the heavy lifting.
Seems like a bit of a stretch
Well yeah. There isn’t a ton of history for guys being effective low-usage point guards next to other guys who handle the ball in the last 20ish years, but there is at least one prominent example of it working pretty well. We will just ignore that before Wade declined that last season Chalmers was far less used as a facilitator.
Anyways, regardless of long-term fit, Hayes looking like a viable NBA player is a nice development. And the good news is that if he has actually figured out his shot it combines with his defense to make him malleable in how the Pistons can try and fit him into their long-term plans.
Jaden Ivey is willing to go for broke
Ivey has of course now joined Cade on the sideline which is another conversation, but out of the gate there was a bit of awkwardness between Cade and Ivey. This isn’t a shock, but Ivey seemed to often be highly deferential. Once Cade went out though, he showed that if he has to be the guy he is comfortable being that. With Cade out his shot equivalents went up by nearly 4 per game, his efficiency wasn’t great but he was visibly more aggressive, got to the line more, and continues to be a revelation with his facilitation. This isn’t a huge thing, but if he had been similarly as passive without Cade it would be a bit of a red flag.
Does that raise any concerns about the long-term pairing of Ivey and Cade?
Not nearly far enough in to be worried about it. That is the type of chemistry that takes time to build, which is maybe the biggest concern about Cade potentially missing the rest of the season.
Cade’s inefficiency as a scorer is a real concern
It is far from time to panic about it, but when you consider that Cade missed 10 games and the offense didn’t exactly fall off a cliff (in fact, it got much better) there is a case to be made that trading out Cade’s high volume of inefficient shots for other guys wasn’t the worst thing in the world.
There are, of course, some context needed. Alec Burks came back to save the bench scoring, Killian Hayes stopped being awful, Marvin Bagley returned, and Isaiah Stewart missed time. All of these things are real offensive boosts to mitigate the loss of Cade, anyone who thinks the Pistons’ offense is ACTUALLY better off without Cade is a fool. But It does make a pretty clear-cut case to the fact that his efficiency is a problem.
Alec Burks is good and should be traded for whatever they can get
Burks has shown up and played well out of the gate. He’s shooting 40% from deep, injecting life into the bench mob, and generally looks like a good NBA guard. He is exactly the type of plug-and-play guy that playoff teams like to trade 2nd rounders for. Even if the return is minimal, they should do it. A guy like Bojan is good enough that I think it’s worth it for Detroit to be choosy and only trade if someone gives a good deal, Burks should be whatever deal is best. No reason for him to be on the team past the deadline.
Saddiq Bey is on the edge:
This is a much larger conversation, but unlike Hayes, who took Cade’s absence to raise himself up, Bey has only continued to scuffle. After a good start to the season, his efficiency is down below 55%, he’s shooting 27% from deep, and has totally lost his spot on the team. He’s coming off the bench but isn't really the 6th man. He won’t shoot this poorly all season, but the horribleness of the Pistons has masked that he’s been a league-average shooter in his first two seasons, isn’t a good passer, not a plus defender, and generally not actually that good. I foolishly turned in my Saddiq Bey Hater card earlier this season but I’ve reclaimed it, Bey does not have endless time to find himself and where he fits on this team.
And that’s it for now. I guess this is effectively an overly long twitter thread but it works for now. What are some of your thoughts on the Pistons without Cade?