Meet Ausar Thompson
The Pistons selected Ausar Thompson with the 5th overall pick in the NBA draft. The bounty of the 2nd worst season in franchise history.
Before diving in I’d like to open up by linking to Halbridious’ draft guide. We had him on the podcast twice in the lead-up to the draft and he even has a blurb on Marcus Sasser at the back-end of it so go check that out.
Who is Ausar Thompson?
Ausar Thompson is a 20 year old, 6’7, 200 lbs wing/guard who was born in California and played his high-school ball in Florida. Ausar is, of course, the elder brother (by 1 minute) of the Rockets 4th overall pick Amen Thompson.
Ausar comes from a family of athletes, his older brother played college basketball and an Uncle of his ran hurdles in the Olympics for Jamaica. His family moved to Florida when he was in 8th grade to play high-school ball a year early where he was widely successful and won a state title and shared County player of the year with his twin brother. Ausar was a high recruit coming out of high school but instead of college ball opted to join the Overtime Elite program. Overtime Elite is a professional organization for basketball players between the age of 16-20 that is billed as a way for players to get paid and receive a more professional style of development based out of Atlanta. OTE has put a couple of other players into the NBA and other professional leagues but the Thompson twins are by far the highest-profile players to come through the program.
Ausar spent two seasons in the program winning MVP of the small league both seasons.
Let’s talk about the Overtime Elite thing
This is uncharted territory. We have seen players go overseas for a season, there’s the G-League ignite thing, but this is a totally new program and it isn’t clear exactly how to judge it. The level of play is closest compared to being high-level high school ball as of now. In theory, there is a clear benefit to being in a more professional environment but the question is whether or not its actually that effective because the Thompson twins are the only big-time prospects to come through the program. So on one hand Ausar should be more attuned to certain procedures of professional development and life, but on the other hand when he steps into the Summer league it will be, without question, the highest level of play he has ever experienced in a competitive setting by a wide margin.
This is a long-winded way of saying that I have no idea how to judge it. This clearly is not the sort of clown show that the Big Baller League thing was, it’s a serious program run by serious people with serious money behind it. The way I am factoring it in for now is to think of it almost as though Ausar is being drafted right out of high-school except he isn’t 18. Beyond that time will tell.
Defense:
There are plenty of positives for Thompson. For starters, he has the athletic and physical profile of an NBA player. At 6’7 with an almost 7-foot wing span, he has legit size for an NBA wing, and when you watch the film he is such a fluid athlete that it is almost startling at times. He has exceptional explosions both as a leaper and a runner and has quicks in close quarters. Look at some of those cuts and runs in transition and you can see he is a no-doubt NBA athlete which is always nice to see from a prospect.
That athleticism makes itself most obvious with his defensive tenacity. Ausar has all the tools to be an elite defender and based on his time at OTE has the desire to be one as well which is, of course, a huge part of that battle. But you can watch the highlights and he isn’t just big and athletic, he has quick hands and good timing to go for steals and blocks. It will not be as simple for him to swallow up ball-handlers at the NBA level as it was for him with OTE but some of the defensive plays he makes are genuine “wow” plays. This is also one area where, theoretically, playing with the OTE program could really shine. Given that the ultimate goal of the program is not actually to win games or have Ausar set some sort of school record, the coaching staffs have no reason to not press him to play hard defensively. Were Ausar going the one-and-done route at some college the coach may be more likely to let the effort come and go for one of his best players as long as its there when it really counts. At OTE the program should be emphasizing from day one that even though Ausar can win the MVP without always playing hard on defense, he needs to get those habits in place now if he is going to reach his potential in the NBA.
Regardless of whether his defensive intensity was instilled by the program or his own drive, Ausar seems like one of the more sure-fire defensive prospects I’ve seen in a long time. He could probably stand to bulk up a bit to handle bigger guys but that’s true of almost all prospects, he’s the complete package. There will obviously be a learning curve on the defensive end like there is for anyone else, but he is huge, athletic, smart, and driven to succeed on that end. There is not truly any prospect that is “can’t miss” but Ausar becoming a high-level defender is about as “can’t miss” as you can get as far as I am concerned.
Surely there are some defensive negatives here?
As mentioned above he could probably stand to bulk up a little but almost every rookie has that issue and it isn’t like he’s a stick person. It’s not terribly easy to find extensive looks at his defense because he wasn’t playing college ball but it does appear that he does occasionally switch off a bit and miss stuff but once again, that is something that pretty much all young players face. Like, watch this:
The dude defends with his hips, has active and quick hands, fights over screens, knows when to rise up for a high-point block and also when to just swipe in on a driver, and everything anyone says about him is that he takes pride in his defense and works like hell on it. The only way he ends up as anything other than a awesome defender is if the level of play at OTE was so low that everything we see is simply a lie that will be exposed by NBA players. But if that’s the case then this is all a lost cause anyways. I would also point to the esteemed Halbridious (who we had on for pre-draft stuff twice for podcast) in his excellent pre-draft guide that I am going to plug again refers to Ausar as “Perhaps the most ‘wreck your shit’ 1v1 defender I’ve ever seen at this level” so I don’t feel so bad about making these proclamations.
How likely is the level of play to prove this wrong?
This is one area where it would seem less likely. If nothing else OTE has a lot of really good athletes in it so the fact that Ausar stays in front of everyone basically all the time is a good sign. The main question is that it seems like OTE doesn’t do a ton of schematic stuff so some of the off-ball stuff is just him free-lancing which has worked but maybe he will struggle to grasp scheme at the NBA level to keep him from reaching his defensive potential.
How would he compare defensively to other recent Pistons guys who were billed as good defenders?
I’d put him a real step above KCP or Stanley Johnson. He’s bigger than KCP and far more explosive than Stanley. Remember how Bruce Brown was hella raw but was basically an impact defender from day 1? Where he was stupid explosive and every night made it his mission to steal the soul of whoever the best guy on the other team was? Imagine that except being 6’7 instead of 6’4. This guy should be the best defensive prospect the Pistons have had since at least Tayshaun Prince.
Offense:
This is where some of the question marks come in. There is still plenty to like, but far more questions. Lets get some of the question marks out of the way.
The big one that you have likely heard about is his shooting. He shot just 22% from deep in his first year at OTE and while he made a significant improvement that only bumped him up to 30% this season so still bad. If you want to put on a positive spin he did manage to shoot nearly 40% from deep in the 5 playoff games OTE plays. I’m not going to play shot doctor but people who do say that he made huge strides in form from year 1 to 2 and that most of his issues are fixable and he doesn’t need to rebuild his shot from scratch. Also as a slight positive here is that despite not shooting well he didn’t let it impact his game too much, he was willing to shoot when open and did hit some big shots. One more problem here is that he also struggled from the line where he shot just 66% last season. Many scouts lean on how guys shoot from the line for how likely they are to improve from deep so we can’t go in that direction here. This is problematic because unlike his brother Amen who is hoping to be a lead ball-handler in the NBA, our Ausar is more of a true wing player which makes the lack of shot problematic. Once again, he isn’t a total non-shooter who will have to build his shot and his confidence from deep from scratch, but there is tons of work to do here.
Other than the shooting, It just isn’t clear how effective he will be as a scorer. There’s talk that he was hampered by some nagging injuries but he wasn’t as effective getting to the hoop and finishing as you’d hope for a guy of his athleticism, the jump-shooting woes carry into the mid-range, and he generally struggles to fight through contact. As beautiful as it looks when he slides though defenders cleanly for dunks and silky layups, it also sometimes looked very bad when he didn’t quite get through cleanly. Once again, there are smart people that are not as worried on this account due to some nagging injuries he supposedly had but I can only go off the stuff I see.
This all combines together to suggest that he may REALLY struggle to put the ball in the hoop, at least out of the gate. And as we have seen with Killian Hayes or Stanley Johnson, no matter how effective you are in other areas, this game is ultimately about putting the ball in the hoop.
So what’s the good news?
One last time I’d put out there that some people think he will be much improved as a finisher with a cleaner bill of health, this will supposedly be something to watch for in Summer league.
Other than that there is something that is fairly concrete and its that Ausar is a legit passer. He (probably) doesn’t have the same high end potential as his brother does to be a lead ball-handler, but Ausar can dribble and makes lots of nice passes. He tosses hugely impressive passes in transition especially and clearly has a good feel for where passes need to go. This is something that makes Detroit an especially nice landing spot for him, if he had ended up on a team that desperately needed ball-handlers he may possible get forced into more ball-handling than he could handle out of the gate, but with Cade and Ivey already in tow, he can start smaller as an occasional playmaker and otherwise be a nice connecting piece until/if he is ready to take on bigger roles.
In conjunction with the passing, Ausar is a whip-smart cutter who has the hands and hops to make good on cuts. There’s actually a good case to be made that his cutting will be his best offensive skill at the NBA level on day 1 and one more thing that will make it easier for him to slide into a more off-ball role next to Ivey and Cunningham.
The passing and cutting also combine to project good things in general. Ausar clearly has a good head for the game and a high basketball IQ and also connects with his defense here as well. His feel for the game is obvious which means concerns about his ability to execute a scheme seem minimal, and feels like he can fit into multiple roles if need be. And while there are plenty of questions about his offensive wheelhouse, “super smart basketball player who’s also an elite athlete” is a pretty good starting point.
Intangibles:
Not as much here as for a guy who had played on a college team since I suspect that even if there were personality issues OTE would go out of their way to avoid them getting out but regardless I doubt that’s the case. Just about every indication is that Ausar has an excellent work ethic and his play on the court is the type of competitive attitude you want from a player. There are basically no red flags for personality, as long as he is cool with not being dude #1 on the team (and at least start out as likely being dude #2 behind Cade and Ivey) I see nothing but positives here.
Where does he fit on the floor?
There is still a lot to shake out with the roster as it currently sits, but he should fit in just fine next to the other core pieces. If all shakes out right the Pistons have young core pieces for 4 of the 5 starting positions with Cunningham/Ivey/Thompson/Duren. How he fits, in reality, will be heavily impacted by his and others development as shooters. If Ivey and Cade both improve as shooters then you can afford a meh shooter on the wing, you can afford to have Cade lag behind if Ausar makes another big step as a shooter if Cade isn’t improved, Ivey stays similar (which to be clear, Ivey’s shooting is fine just not great) and Ausar struggles that will make it hard to play them together, especially when the Pistons have no centers who can shoot. Depending on how the free-agency period goes Ausar should fill a similar role whether it is as a starter or off the bench.
He should be the de-facto big wing defender from day 1, who takes on occasional ball-handling duties while otherwise being a relentless cutter/terror in transition who you hope hits enough threes to keep the defense honest.
Upshot for the rest of the roster:
One would imagine that Ausar will start at the 3 out of the gate but I wouldn’t be shocked if he starts his career off the bench possibly. Given what a gaping hole the Pistons have in terms of athletic wings (with any size) this shouldn’t have much impact on other roster stuff, it maybe lowers the chance of Hamidou coming back but that didn’t seem likely anyways. It maybe makes the chances of Isaiah Livers sticking in the rotation or even on the roster lower but that was already in question. Probably the main impact is that the Pistons could theoretically justify not sniffing around basically every wing player who is a free agent since they don’t have a huge, gaping hole at the starting 3-spot. The roster is still a mess but a starting lineup of Cade/Ivey/Ausar/Bojan/Duren is at least coherent. On the flip side though, Ausar is probably raw and versatile enough that if they were to manage to reel in a legit dude on the wing/forward (say they get Cam Johnson or Kyle Kuzma or something) I wouldn’t be too worried about him being one of the first guys off the bench for now.
Best NBA doppleganger:
Everyone is saying Andre Iguodala and… yeah that’s a pretty good one. I think Iggy was more of a playmaker than Ausar will ever be, Iggy was effectively a point-guard for significant portions of his career, but the general idea of an all-world defender who can score points without plays being run for him while also being capable of taking on facilitation is clear. When you watch Ausar on the floor he is so physically and athletically similar to Iguodala it stands out.
I also like the comparison to imagine if Bruce Brown were several inches taller and even more athletic, which its important to remember that Bruce was widely regarded as a lottery guy before getting hurt in college and that Bruce not having an awesome size for an off-guard was one of the knocks on him.
Best Case Scenario:
The defense is legit from day one, and Ausar shows that he actually can do more ball-handling than previously shown it’s just that his brother had always taken the PG role more than him. Be becomes some sort of mutant version of Andre Iguodala where he can also shoot and is the perfect parter for the Cade/Ivey backcourt. The Pistons have a legit big 3 growing together with Ausar as the Scottie Pippen to the Cade/Ivey Jordan and they lead the Pistons to titles.
Worst Case Scenario:
The offense isn’t raw it’s just bad, the lack of coherent coaching at OTE is obvious from day one as he struggles to make good on the defensive upside. Within a few years it’s obvious that Ausar is just a tools guy but not actually good enough at anything to be an NBA player and doesn’t even finish his rookie deal.
Verdict:
There are real questions about his ability to be anything more than a transition athlete on offense and Pistons fans don’t have to think long to find examples of those guys flopping in a Pistons uniform. But the defense should be a rock to bring some value from day one and I’m cautiously optimistic about the offense. He certainly has more bust potential than some of the guys they could’ve taken but I’m totally cool with going for an upside guy in this draft, they can try and get role players when they are not picking in the top 5 next Summer (hopefully). I am in love with his defense and I think that generally, guys that defend and are smart offensively tend to be winning players so I am actually not as worried about the bust potential as some.