Meet James Wiseman
Now the trade is official we can get to it.
The Pistons have traded for James Wiseman, while it was a complicated 4 team deal that was nearly rescinded due to a bad medical for Gary Payton, it ended up getting through. All that matters for the Pistons is that they traded Saddiq Bey and Kevin Knox to the Warriors for James Wiseman. (With Saddiq eventually ending up in Atlanta with the Hawks and Knox ending up in Portland).
Who is James Wiseman
James Wiseman is a 7-foot-tall, 240-pound, 21-year-old big man born and raised in Nashville Tennessee. Wiseman moved to Memphis in high-school where he played for Penny Hardaway in high school and then when Hardaway landed the Memphis (the college, as in Memphis Tigers) he followed him there for college, widely regarded as one of the top prospects in the country. Wiseman only played 3 games in college, getting wrapped up in a recruiting thing where supposedly Penny Hardaway helped pay for his family to move to Memphis. Despite this he was selected 2nd overall by the Golden State Warriors in the 2020 NBA draft.
The Warriors had high hopes that Wiseman would be the do-it-all genuine big man they had been lacking since Andrew Bogut accompanied them to their first title and were so eager to see this happen the started him out of the gate in 2020 but it didn’t last. After a while he was pulled from the starting lineup, he then had a combination of injuries and DNP CDs while occasionally slotting back into the rotation and even starting but ended up playing in jus 39 games. The next season he missed with a knee injury, so he literally never played a minute for the Warriors team that won the title. Out of the gate this year they once again clearly had high hopes with him being a real rotation member before being ditched again. Some more injuries added on as well and he’s played sparingly in just 21 games so far this season.
He arrives in Detroit having played barely 1000 minutes in the 3 years of his NBA career, he will be under his rookie contract through next season.
The real point
Before we fully dive into his game, to good and the bad, oh man the bad, it should be once again emphasized that he has played just 1,098 minutes in his NBA career. That is nothing, especially when spread over 3 seasons. For reference, Isaiah Livers has played 1,116 minutes so far in his career. Marvin “I can’t ever stay on the floor cause I’m always hurt” Bagley played more minutes in two of his first three seasons individually than Wiseman has in his career, and Jalen Duren has ALREADY logged more career minutes on an NBA floor than James Wiseman has. So we will be going in like with any other players to try and diagnose what to expect from Wiseman, but this is truly an exceptional circumstance. So remember these rules for the rest of this post.
Everything has the *tiny sample size* asterisk next to it. For instance, out of college he was deemed as potentially being a plus shooter but has shot just 32% from deep as a pro, but he’s only shot 40 threes in the NBA so who knows.
This basically means everything here will be some form of shrugging and giving it my best guess.
The Offense:
This is where the goods are. There are some guys who are high draft picks that you watch for a little while and just wonder how on earth a bunch of people for whom it is their full-time job decided this guy was that sort of prospect. Guys like Anthony Bennet or Dragan Bender where after a bit it becomes clear that they are not only a bust as a player, they are a total bust by everyone who scouted them. Even if Wiseman never amounts to anything, he would not be one of those players.
It is immediately clear upon watching those highlights why he was so highly touted, and why the Pistons organization looked at him and thinks “we can fix him”. He’s a genuine 7 footer who isn’t a stick-person. An excellent athlete with a unique combination of scary-smooth movement sliding around the floor while also being capable of a violent explosion to dunk all over defenders. He has a soft touch, is comfortable taking jumpers, and generally moves with the sort of comfort, speed, and slickness with the ball that many point guards would envy. This dude genuinely has all the tools and even though he would end up being a huge bust if he washes out of Detroit, I don’t think anyone can honestly blame any scout who looked at him and saw a future superstar.
The numbers offensively have been decent as well. Once again its hard to take too much out of these because of how little he’s played and how much of it was garbage time but still. In his career the per 36 minutes numbers are just under 20 points and 10 rebounds with a TS% of 57.4%.
As far as the actual substance, his greatest strength is obviously around the basket. He’s huge and has a soft touch, he can dunk on people and also finish layups. In particular he often looks at his most comfortable when he is able to operate as the roll man, something that the Warriors even admitted. The problem of course, is that the Warriors don’t do much pick and roll, instead preferring to operate a beautiful machine of motion that fits Steph Curry the best.
This is an important point with regards to both the bad and the good for Wiseman. On one hand, it is easy to paint a picture, and one that even the Warriors and those around the team have admitted, that when they did things that he was more comfortable with and fit his playstyle more he looked miles better. The downside is that he could not, for the life of him, make it work in the motion offense. This is concerning because the Warriors are not very demanding of their bigs on offense. Kevon Looney is a good player but he ain’t exactly a game-changer. To work in that motion offense as the big, surrounded by hall of famers, you just need to screen, do dribble-hand-offs, and generally just sort of get to the right place at the right time. More bluntly, he is just about the only guy to get paired with Stephen Curry who looked awful.
All the signs point to Wiseman being a low-IQ player who doesn’t pass, isn’t terribly effective as a screener, doesn’t really know how to move without the ball, and the shot never showed up to make up for any of those issues. More bluntly, when asked to do much more than dunk the ball all over defenders, it was a disaster. The hope for Detroit is that these edges can at least be rounded out a bit with actual playing time and being allowed to play through mistakes, none of which was allowed him with the Warriors.
All in all, the potential is still there offensively. Even if the ball-skills that truly set him apart never become reality, with some more experience he should become an effective rim-running offensive center, and from there you can hope that some of the other stuff comes around to the point he becomes something special.
Defense:
This will be quick. Disaster. Whether you are the type to go with fancy stats or the simple eye test. Wiseman is an abject disaster on defense and as much as he struggled to really get it going in the Warriors’ motion offense, the total inability to play defense is the ultimate reason why he could not get on the floor. He was consistently in the wrong place, did not move his feet well, miss-timed block attempts, and fouled the hell out of everything that came near him. Like on offense, he does have the theoretical tools, but unlike the offense, there is no bedrock of “well he sure as hell can dunk the ball”. There has been no bright spot on defense and any hope here will be just that. Hope.
You also don’t get to put any blame on a unique motion offense here. The Warriors in this era largely play defense similarly to how most teams do. MOst of the time the perimeter guys switch and the big stays home in drop-coverage. It is not complex and very similar to what the Pistons (and indeed, most teams) do on defense these days. The total inability to play defense is extra concerning given that the Pistons are a disaster on defense to a high level and were already in seemingly desperate need of upgrading their defense this Summer.
Intangibles:
A bit hard to say. The recruiting stuff in college sometimes is a red flag that a guy might have surrounded himself with some not-great characters but by most accounts, it genuinely was just Penny Hardaway who screwed it up and there was contention about exactly how much was actually screwed up even within the exceptionally stupid NCAA rules. After a cursory search, I could not find anything regarding negative off-the-court behavior which includes anyone in his circle getting into any sort of trouble. If anyone got anything there they can share it but I couldn’t find anything.
In addition, when you hear the way the Warriors organization spoke about him, whether it be players or coaches or media, they clearly think highly of him. It would be easy for the organization to simply throw him under the bus, but instead, the conversation has been almost exclusively positive with regard to him and they largely stated the optimistic view that he simply wasn’t ready for what they needed from him.
Lastly, and the spot where I can actually apply my expertise. Wiseman plays hard. Who knows how good he is at working outside of games (although the way his teammates spoke of him would suggest he puts in the work there as well) but you can see on the court that he cares and genuinely wants to do whatever he can to win. If this sounds like Marvin Bagley again that’s because I said basically the exact same thing about him. His inability defensively isn’t due to lack of effort or want to, he genuinely just can’t get in the right place at the right time and has terrible technique. Like with Bagley this might make you feel better or worse. On one hand, you would always rather take a bet on a guy who works hard. On the flip side, there’s tons of success stories where a guy who simply doesn’t have his head/heart in the game gets jolted into the right mindset by this sort of trade and suddenly realizes that even if he doesn’t love defense he does love being an NBA player which means he better start caring about defense. The number of “this guy shows no instinct or mind for playing defense” before figuring it out is far lower. Like with other spots, the bet here is that simply with a proper amount of playing time and being allowed to play through mistakes will allow him to make growth.
Where does he fit on the floor?
I think its a bad thing to try and play him at the 4 but it seems like they will try him at the 4. My guess is he will still play center though. Meaning he will split time between the big spots as they experiment with how to best utilize him. Playing him at power forward may help a bit to alleviate his defensive issues (its easier to be in the right place when you just switch most of the time) but his offensive skillset is far better for being a center, not to mention even if he is less disastrously out of position it isn’t clear he has the foot speed to guard 4s in today’s NBA. BUT THATS OKAY. The rest of this season is a time to experiment and find out what he can do. So he will probably alternate between both spots and they will try different combinations. My main hope is to see him get at least some time at center in a lineup with Himself/Bojan/Livers/Burks/Ivey just to see what he can look like in a proper spread pick and roll.
Upshot for the rest of the roster:
I can’t imagine they view him as taking over for Duren. Duren has not been quite as good as some people seem to think but he’s already miles ahead of Wiseman. As such it seems like this isn’t a great omen for the future of Isaiah Stewart. On the flip side, maybe the whole “oh we are going to start him” was a load of crap and he will simply come off the bench and not really impact the rotation too much. Although even in that situation, Marvin Bagley definitely seems like a guy that has very little reason to be on the team. Although I will admit that I kind of want to see Bagley and Wiseman play together when Bagley is healthy cause that could be pretty entertaining on offense. Overall it is very hard to say on this point though.
Best Case Scenario:
He simply needed the opportunity. The rest of this season is patchy, but he has it on offense from day one and the defense is only bad instead of awful. He puts in the work this Summer, feeling great to finally be in a situation that fits him, and comes back next season a different player. He becomes the all-around dynamite offensive big-man who can shoot, dribble, and dunk and is the teams leading scorer while being at least decent on defense. He combines with Ivey/Cade/whoever they draft this Summer to make a bona-fide big 4 and is a central part of the Pistons winning multiple championships and this move is viewed as one of the greatest trades in NBA history.
Worst Case Scenario:
More of the same. The Pistons give him playing time and opportunity but it makes no difference. He’s a disaster on defense and the offense isn’t nearly worthwhile to make that sacrifice. He spends the next year and a half stinking it up on the court and still misses significant time with injury before simply leaving the team in free agency after next season.
The verdict:
As I outlined in my podcast the other day (which if you missed it I am recording podcasts again and they are right here on the substack go listen) I outlined my concern over the fact that the Pistons will have more than $24million tied up in Bagley and Wiseman next season. The presence of Duren makes this a strange fit, and giving up Bey who is a better and more proven player to get him is bizarre. All that said, I can’t give up on the fact that I like Wiseman out of the draft and that from the moment he started having issues with the Warriors I wanted the Pistons to poach him. I do not think he is going to become a star, but I think he could well become a genuinely dynamic offensive player and maybe get to “not a total disaster” on defense. The problem is that even that is probably still below where I would predict Duren to end up and I do not believe Wiseman will work at the 4. So in the end my verdict would be that He will be a guy who can be a high-minutes bench guy who might get chased off the floor when playoff time roles around.
The Bagley comparisons are abundant and undeniable. You were pretty much all the way behind that trade but more down on this one. Why is that?
A few things.
First off, when the Pistons traded for Bagley he was filling a huge and obvious hole. The Pistons had a total lack of athleticism, especially in the front-court. The simple idea of getting to provide Cade Cunningham with a big man who could actually dunk a lob was enticing enough to make it more than worth the downside risk for me. At this point, the Pistons do not have this issue. Bagley is already here, and the emergence of Duren means they really have no need of a hyper athlete big-man anymore. Duren’s emergence had already put Bagley’s role on the team in serious doubt, adding another Bagley just doesn’t make much sense there.
Secondly, the team has different goals and a different place now than they were. When they traded for Bagley we pretty much all knew they had at least one more bad season ahead, but now look to next season. Cade will enter year 3, you clearly have something in Ivey and you will get another top whatever pick this Summer. There is a non-zero chance that none of Troy Weaver’s first draft-class survives the Summer. The Pistons no longer have such a deficit of talent that they need to be taking shots on any talent they can get their hands on just in case they find one. We will see how high Cade and IVey can fly but both guys are genuine blue-chip talents and they should have a third in whoever they get this Summer, depending on exactly how you would qualify Duren he may count as a 4th but he at least makes it like 3.5. If the Pistons had worse luck and drafted like, Jalen Suggs and Johnny Davis the last two years then yeah you need to take swings on whatever talent you can get cause this ship is sinking. But that ain’t the case anymore.
Thirdly, the team is going to try and actually win next season. We can let Wiseman play through mistakes and all that good stuff the rest of this year, but what happens next season? Will Casey (or whoever is coach. Please be someone else. please) be cool with letting Wiseman tank important defensive possessions when the owner and GM have made it clear they want to make the playoffs?
Lastly, it is clear that what the Pistons MUST add to the current roster is some combination of: defense, shooting, and general ball-moving conductive play. Basically, they have the skeleton of a good team with the young talent they have on hand, they basically need to add the meat to really make it work right. Not only is Wiseman none of those things, he is the exact opposite. The Pistons should be trying to add the tope of guys that will help make life easier for their young building blocks to learn how to play winning basketball, and instead they added a guy who will have even more to learn (in less time) than anyone else on the roster and outside of being a good lob-target he brings no skills to help make the team around the building blocks functional.
This all does kind of suck because I still have some belief in Wiseman, but it seems like even the upside isn’t that high here. Like even if things go well I have to imagine he knows he’s best as a center, so what happens if he takes the next year and a half of development, says “thanks” and goes somewhere where Jalen Duren isn’t blocking him from his proper position? Like, even if everything goes great you have a awesome center who is pretending to be a power forward, which isn’t the worst thing in the world but still. Effectively, if the Pistons had not gotten Duren (or any other guy who seemed to be the center of the future) I would be far more in favor of this.
So that’s it. I will watch with great anticipation to see how he does and he is still one of those guys I haven’t given up on. So go get em James we are all rooting for you.