Nerlens Noel Season Preview
Once again, disclaimer that I wrote a piece when Noel arrived in Detroit and there will be overlap there.
About Last Season:
Nerlens Noel followed up a strong campaign as a central part of a surprising Knicks team with an injury-riddled 2021-2022 season where he played just 25 games. Worth noting that even within an injury-riddled season but there were multiple injuries. He didn’t get hurt at the start and then get a stretch of games at the end of the season. Noel never played more than 6 straight games. So not only injured but never got any chance to get into a rhythm.
His role was similar in those games, rarely used offensively while being a significant disruptor defensively. He only played 22.5 minutes per game, once again impacted by the fact that he was never healthy. In those minutes he scored 3.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. He was a favorite of Tom Thibbidou for his defensive toughness. In the end, though, last season was effectively a wash due to the injuries.
He arrived in Detroit along with Alec Burks as part of the Knicks shedding salary in order to sign Jalen Brunson.
Offense:
Uncertain here. Noel had spent most of his career as a viable offensive player. His career TS% is 57.6% (which isn’t very good for a big man who largely dunks but isn’t horrible) and prior to arriving in New York, he had averaged 13.1 points per 36 minutes, once again nothing to write home about but perfectly acceptable for a defense-first center.
He did this by being athletic enough to be an effective rim-runner, catching lobs and snagging put-backs off of offensive rebounds. He also occasionally will hit a short-range jumper as a handy tool in his back pocket.
Then he arrived in New York and apparently forgot his offensive game. In New York he averaged 7.5 and 5.4 points per 100 minutes, an impossibly low number. His efficiency was the same but he simply never shot. Whether or not this was a product of playing in a miserable offensive environment or some sort of wider issue with him is going to have a real impact on how effective he is in Detroit.
On one hand, the Knicks were severely lacking in players who were good at tossing lobs and Thibbideou has always run miserable offenses units. On the other hand, if you told me that as he approaches 30 the myriad of injuries have sapped him past the point of being able to jump high enough to regularly dunk anymore.
If the Pistons can coax the previous form out of him he is a perfectly workable, if unremarkable, center on the offensive end. He will catch lobs when they are open, finish some stuff inside, snag some offensive rebounds, and occasionally pop for jumpers. He isn’t worth much as a screener or passer, but once again, viable.
If his Knicks tenure is indicative of what he is now, then Noel will be a significant drag on the Pistons offense. This is especially troublesome given that the other guy who figures to get most of the center minutes, Isaiah Stewart, is a similar drag on the offense. Theoretically Noel will ensure Duren isn’t rushed into things and push Stewart for minutes, but if he’s worse offensively than Stewart is, it will be hard to see that happening.
Defense:
This is where the good is. Noel isn’t as all-powerful as some of his stats make it seem but he is still a highly effective defender. Basketball dweebs like myself (and likely, many of you reading this) love to poo-poo a guy like Noel as a way to prove that we don’t just look at the stats we actually watch the games. Sometimes we forget though, that the fact that Noel has been in the top ten for block and steal rate basically every season he’s played in absurd even if he sometimes gambles out of position to collect those numbers.
Noel is long, athletic, and instinctual in his defensive efforts and at this point in his career, he’s cagey enough that gambling isn’t really even what holds him back. His biggest issue defensively is that he remains rail-thin which holds him back as a rebounder and interior defender. Whether it’s hanging with the handful of post-up brutes in the league or not getting bullied out of air-space by physical slashers, if offensive players can get into his body they tend to get the space they need.
That said, he’s highly disruptive, will fight with bigger guys, and has at least some ability to defend in space. If Duren isn’t ready for real minutes yet then Noel’s frenzied and rangey defense will be a breath of fresh air compared to Isaiah Stewart’s effective but ground-bound defensive work.
Is he better defensively that Stewart?
Hard to say because they do things very differently but by my count have similar impacts. Noel is more disruptive but Stewart is more disciplined and can bang down low more effectively, both guys struggled on the defensive glass due to being undersized (height for Stew, weight for Noel), both guys have seemed like they are somewhat overmatched when starting.
In the end it probably depends on Stewart making a step in the right direction. As of last season the edge probably goes to Noel, but the gap is small enough that Stewart could well be the stronger defender for the season.
You mentioned in other writing that Noel may push Stewart for minutes, how likely do you actually think that is?
Much depends on Noel finding back some offensive production. If its as poor as it was for the Knicks then there isn’t much reason to use him as anything other than a body to soak up minutes until Duren is ready.
What if he can find back some offensive production?
If he can produce something offensively though, he is probably in the same boat here as Alec Burks. If the Pistons were actually trying to win games then he’s probably their best center and really the only big on the roster who is a plus on one end and not a huge negative on the other. Stewart can defend but severely hampers the offense, Olynyck and Bagley do good stuff for your offense but ruin your defensive integrity. A good version of Noel can match, or even surpass, Stewart’s defensive effectiveness while providing more offensively.
That is a big if though, it was two seasons’ worth of no production on the offensive end and enough minutes that you cannot brush it off as a strange statistical outlier.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
As stated above, my guess is that Stewart is starting but Noel should push him for minutes. Casey will love his defensive presence and will likely be eager to push Stewart given that Stewart was largely unopposed as the starter last year. Even if he were to start, Stewart is still playing heavy minutes so as far as actual rotation it is probably a moot point. Noel will play somewhere between 22-28 minutes and that workload will likely be dependent on a combination of Duren’s readiness and how the 4-spot works out.
What if Duren is ready from day 1?
If he is, there is a world where Noel is a non-entity in the rotation. That world is Duren ready for real time out of the gate, Stewart takes another step to hold fast as the starter, and someone solidifies the 4-spot. Realistically this would be the best-case scenario for the Pistons.
Where does he fit on the floor?
Anchoring the defense, rolling to the hoop on offense.
Worst Case Scenario:
Injuries are a cop-out but that fear is significant here.
Noel has been completely sapped of his offensive game and is a bit diminished defensively as well. He remains in the rotation because Duren is clearly not ready, but he is disastrous in those minutes, torpedoing the offense and making a minimal defensive impact.
Best Case Scenario:
The offensive dropoff was just a weird result of the Knicks. He’s healthy and bouncy enough to play major minutes and is effective in pushing Stewart to a higher level knowing that Noel is on his heels for playing time. Noel is an effective veteran for a Pistons team that wins more games than expected, his defensive effort makes him a fan-favorite.
Heading into the offseason the Pistons trade him for some sort of value, feeling great about the future of the Stewart/Duren combo at center, happy that Noel gave them a stop-gap year of effective and fun center play.
Official Prediction:
Closer to the best-case. There isn’t a ton of indication that the offensive dropoff had anything to do with Noel himself so getting to play with some ball-handlers who actually pass should help to revive that. He stands out as the Pistons one big option who contributes to both ends and pushes Stewart for minutes. In the end though, the heavier minutes load causes his body to break down by the end of the season, but it clears the path for Duren to get into the rotation in the back-end of the season so no one is upset about it.