Opponent Scouting: Indiana Pacers
Welcome back friends
Our long national nightmare is over, or perhaps if you consider the state of this franchise the past few years it might be that the national nightmare is simply resuming. Eye of the beholder and all that.
Tonight at 7:00pm EST the Pistons will be hosting the Pacers of Indiana. This is the season opener for both teams and, obviously, the home opener for Detroit.
The Them:
The Pacers come into the season with a very similar roster to the one they ended last season with. The previous rendition of the Pacers won 47 games and went to the Eastern Conference Finals and most books have their over-under for the season right around 47 wins for this season indicating that the general public thinks they will be a similar team, which once again does make sense given the roster continuity.
Regardless of exactly how good the Pacers end up being they are almost certainly going to be good. Last year their offensive firepower was otherworldly, the defense was a mess but they did even out a bit after aquiring Pascal Siakam at the deadline and theoretically after a full offseason having Siakam and Myles Turner (who is still a very good defensive center on most nights) should theoretically give them better stability on the defensive end. And just to be clear, “better stability” is basically try to stay out of the bottom ten defensive units in the league (they finished last season 24th in defensive efficiency) which seems reasonable enough. If they can pull that off and come even close to replicating their high-flying, high-speed offense from last season they could definitely surprise some people. There’s also a chance that they join the neverending ranks of teams that surprise people with a conference finals run one year and then fade back into mediocrity (see the Hawks a few years ago). It seems unlikely because this team (and coach) seem more stable (i.e. Everyone on the team doesn’t seem to hate their best player) but if they ended up being a .500 team and a few years from now we look back going “wow they had multiple guys have career years at the same time” I don’t think anyone would exactly be stupified.
The main attraction here is still Tyrese Haliburton. After a breakout season last year that was dampened a bit by an injury in the back half of the season, which he didn’t seem quite right even after he got back playing, he will look to prove that the guy he was pre-injury (when he was playing at a level that could garner genuine MVP votes) which is probably the best hope this team has to go from being a good team to a genuine contender.
After Haliburton the aforementioned Siakam is the other headliner. He’s a rangy, versatile, and effective defender although his offensive responsibilities do keep him from being the full game defensive wrecking ball he one was but he can still lock down when it matters and it’s not like he’s checked out defensively. Offensively he is a dynamic passer who;s difficult to keep from the hoop who typically will hit just enough 3s to not be an anchor to the offense when he doesn’t have the ball, his cutting abilities also help to mitigate his shooting woes. Also making it easier to survive his shooting is Myles Turner, a legit stretch 5 playing at center means that in many lineups Siakam will actually be the worst shooter on the floor.
Speaking of Turner, the man who may own the record for number of times he’s supposedly nearly been traded without actually being traded remains a cornerstone for Indiana. His shot-blocking was one of the few good things this team has defensively and his shooting is a important part of their high-flying offense. He’s never become the star that some hoped but he is pretty close to the ideal non-star center you could have for the modern NBA.
After those top three the players remain solid. Obi Toppin brings real juice as a offensive big-man, Aaron Nesmith solidified himself as a legit 3 and D wing last season, Ben Mathurin has awesome size on the wing, real ball skills, and a plus shooter entering year 3, (another guy that could make a leap to really change the higher end outcomes for this team) TJ McConnell is still a pain defensively and solid game-manager offensively as a backup PG, Andrew Nembhard was a revelation later in the year. Pistons legend James Wiseman is here, Pontiac native Isaiah Jackson always seems to have good games against Detroit.
Its obviously silly to take much away from one game but this Pacers team is probably about as close to a known quantity as you can be at the very start of a season. They should be dynamite on offense and average at best defensively, so we know the stick the Pistons are being measured against tonight. A good chance for the Pistons to prove that things are better right away.
Matchups to watch:
General rotation stuff: There are not a ton of rotational questions for Detroit this season, at least far less than there have often been the past few years, but still. At the start of an NBA season, one of the biggest questions will always be how much certain guys play and who they will get played with. Will Isaiah Stewart ever play non-center minutes again? Even if Ivey seems to have solidly won a starting gig how many minutes will he actually spend next to Cade? Stuff like that.
Jalen Duren vs. Defense: One of the real bummers of the past season was that other than a brief flash to open the season, not only did Duren not take a step forward defensively last year but at times it almost felt like the he may have taken a step backwards. If he’s ever going to really become a difference maker he MUST improve on defense and this Pacers offense will be a great test for him.
The Ivey Comeback train: Monty Williams will be brought to justice for his crimes against basketball.
Pistons vs. Defending the perimeter: The Pacers have a pleathora of guys who can attack from outside, until Ausar Thompson is playing again (get well soon) the Pistons do not have much in the way of plus defenders, but especially on the outside. Guys like Ivey, Cade, and Tobias Harris are going to have to play with real effort. This will also give us a decent view into how cohesive the unit is defensively.
Pistons vs. Bench minutes: It remains unclear how this team will generate offense when Cade (and to a lesser extent Ivey) is off the floor. The PIstons bench shouldn’t be a total disaster this year, the simple fact that they can make a 10-man rotation of players that are still going to be in the league next year (we think) should ensure that. But it does feel like the Pistons will be counting on Malik Beasley heat-checks an awful lot for the bench unit, which admittedly will work sometimes, but it can’t be the only thing. In addition, I’d point out that this is easily the biggest hole on the roster (relative to a team for whom 35 wins would be a huge success) and is one of those problems that might not really be solvable.
Cade Cunningham vs. Doing it: It’s year 4, the roster isn’t a complete disaster, he’s (supposedly) healthy, and no longer has a war criminal as a coach, he’s already signed his rookie extension which will kick in next season. I fully believe Cade is in for a huge, breakout season. That said, if its going to happen it has got to be now, he doesn’t need to be a finished product yet, but this team is in desperate need of a year-long ass-kicking tour by Cunningham. Regardless of record, if Cade plays 70+ games averaging something like 24-6-6 with positive lineup data this season will be a success.
So in conclusion…
Run for the hills if:
The Pacers offense is receiving basically no resistance.
The Pistons are struggling to score on a defense that probably isn’t going to be that good.
After Jaden Ivey scores his first bucket of the season JB Bickerstaff rips off his own skin to reveal that it is Monty Williams in disguise and he nails Ivey to the bench immediately as Killian Hayes gets a WWE-style intro. (Hayes goes 1-12 as Williams smiles from the sideline)
Wink knowingly at your friends if:
Cade Cunningham is getting everything he wants.
The new coaching staff has the Pistons playing cohesive enough on defense that the Pacers have even a couple of dry spells on offense.
Jalen Duren is locked in defensively.
At halftime there is a WWE-style intro for a tribunal of basketball judges who will hold a hold a trial of MOnty Williams for crimes against basketball.
Opportunities for me to look stupid:
Cade scores 30.
Bickerstaff opts for heavier staggaring of the starters to help the bench but mostly leaves Cade and Ivey together.
Isaiah Stewart ends up closing the game in an attempt to defend enough to survive.
Pistons 134 - Pacers 130.