Opponent Scouting: Indiana Pacers (31-25)
Tonight at 7:00pm EST the Detroit Pistons re-start their season following the all-star break on the road against the Pacers. This is the first game back for both teams.
The Them:
The Indiana Pacers enter the second half of the season in a strong position. While few people would categorize them as legit contenders, their 26th-ranked defense is far too bad for that, but Tyrese Haliburton has solidified himself as a bonafide superstar, they made a big swing in trading for Pascal Siakam who’s fit hasn’t been seamless but it’s looked good more often than not and their offense still sits at 2nd in the league. It is worth pointing out that while the Pacers did slow a bit before the all-star break, they were still playing 500 ball so it isn’t like they suddenly fell off a cliff.
In addition to their new top 2, Myles Turner is still a versatile big man who is just about the only good defensive thing on the roster and is also capable of stretching the floor and scoring for himself. Aaron Nesmith has finally made good on his promise out of college and become an absolute sniper from deep (shooting 45% from deep this season) who plays really hard. After the deadline, Andrew Nembhard has the role of being the 5th starter who isn’t remarkable but is well-rounded and competent as a wing-type. Young Benedict Mathurin continues to show his abilities as a versatile wing even if the counting stats have taken a bit of a dip from last year he is still averaging 14 points per game and shooting 36% from deep despite mostly coming off the bench. Obi Toppin is here and while his defense remains an issue he is a dynamic offensive big man who can hit the deep ball (40% from deep) and athletic as a roller/inside scorer.
Pontiac native Isaiah Jackson is the backup center who is normally the definition of “fine” as a large human who does the basic big-man stuff and not much else but he always seems to play well against Detroit, in 8 games against the Pistons he’s averaging 13 and 7 on a TS% of 63.2% but on his whole career has averaged 7 points and 4 rebounds on TS% of 61.9%. TJ McConnell is still the most stereotypical scrappy white point-guard ever, which is obviously a worthwhile guy to have on your team but it is almost comical how much he fits the mold. Doug McDermott is here now as well and he can still shoot.
This team may struggle to defend but the offense is dynamite and there’s a pretty good chance that as Siakam gets more integrated the defense will tighten up, even though even if you only take the last 15 games they still rank 26th defensively. The most important thing for our purposes is that they are still much better than the Pistons even if they possibly end up regressing a bit from some early-season highs.
Matchups to watch:
Cade vs. Playing: Pretty self-explanatory. As of this writing he is listed as probable but he completely changes the Pistons dynamic.
Jaden Ivey vs. Picking right back up: Jaden Ivey went on a tear from pretty much the moment he got put into the starting lineup, (17/4/4 as a starter and 21/4/4 in 7 games in February) which is one of the most important story-lines for Detroit the rest of the way. Ivey continuing to solidify himself as an unquestioned dude for the future is one of the best things that can happen the rest of the way, and a leaky Pacers defense is just the team to kick-start that.
Monty Williams vs. Himself: At this point the fact that I was fairly high on the Monty hire is one of the biggest whiffs I’ve ever had as far as hoops opinions go. While the Pistons’ roster is still bad, it does at least make some sense now and some of the fat has been trimmed. No one is asking for a miracle here, but there is no reason that he can’t put lineups that at least make sense on paper on the floor for the entire game, he needs to do that.
Pistons newcomers vs shooting: The Pistons clearly put an emphasis on adding players who are tallish (6’5 or taller) who could shoot. The one danger is that many of these players were in the midst of career lows (or close to it) from deep. And even the ones that were shooting well have shorter track records. These players finding their shots the rest of the way will have a huge impact on the rest of the season. If guys like Milton and Muscala can get back to their career marks while a guy like Fontecchio can maintain how he’d shot the previous few months then there is no reason they can’t sneak into the “still very bad but at least functional and fun” realm. If they don’t then it will likely be more of the same.
Jalen Duren vs. Avoiding foul-trouble: At least until the Isaiah Stewart situation/injury/whatever is resolved, we cannot afford a more James Wiseman minutes than are absolutely necessary.
Jalen Duren vs. Myles Turner: Duren has a long ways to go defensively in many areas, but his biggest blind spot remains his ability to handle guys who can shoot which is Turner’s bread and butter.
So in conclusion…
Run for the hills if:
James Wiseman has to play more than 20 minutes.
The Pacers are alternating between Turner splashing open 3s and their perimeter guys getting open lanes to the hoop as the Pistons utterly fail to deal with a shooting big yet again.
Haliburton is taking heat-check shots.
Wink knowingly at your friends if:
Ivey and Cade are carving up the soft Pacers defense just as much as the Pacers are doing to the Pistons
Any two of the Pistons new wing-type players catch fire from deep.
The Pistons are getting out in transition.
Opportunities for me to look stupid:
Ivey and Cade combine for 50+points.
Myles Turner has a big game.
James Wiseman only plays 10 minutes.
Pistons 134 - Pacers 130.