Opponent Scouting: Miami Heat (4-5)
The Pistons look to bounce back
Tonight at 7:00PM EST the Detroit Pistons will be hosting the Miami Heat at the LCA. The Pistons are coming off of one day of rest following a close loss to the Rockets while the Heat are coming off a close win over the Timberwolves.
The Them:
The Miami Heat are decidedly mediocre, coming into the game with a 4-5 record, the league’s 18th-ranked offense and 15th-ranked defense, good for the 17th net rating (just one spot ahead of Detroit!).
Jimmy Butler is going to miss his second straight game tonight, so the Pistons will get a shot at Miami without him. Bam Adebayo remains the rock upon which this Heat team is built. His 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists per game understate how much of their offense runs through him in one way or another, and he remains one of the game’s best defenders. Tyler Herro has taken a step as the seemingly undisputed #1 with Jimmy Butler having taken a step back. Herro is averaging 23 points and 5 assists per game, he’s shooting over 45% from dep on big volume, time will tell if the rest of his game can catch up to allow him to become a true star but there is little doubt as to his scoring ability, which will likely be problematic for the leaky Pistons perimeter defense. Terry Rozier became one of my favorite under-the-radar players in Charlotte over the last few years and that has continued, he guns fearlessly from deep to great effect, has a dash of point-guard abilities offensively, and is a bulldog defensively, is just the type of guy you like to have on your team.
With Butler out those are the main three to watch, Kevin Love is still hanging on as a stretch sort of five, and Haywood Highsmith has proven to be a serviceable 3 and D wing since arriving in Miami a few years ago. Nikola Jovic is big and fairly skilled and isn’t a sieve defensively, Josh Richardson never really worked out but he’s still a decent wing who can do some of everything, even if he feels like a ghost of his former self. Duncan Robinson can shoot. This is a very similar team to past seasons, even the new faces like Rozier are the type of guys that fit so cleanly into the Heat identity that you barely notice them. They play hard defense, spend much of their offense in the mud, and will always be a tough out.
Matchups to watch:
Pistons vs. Adebayo: As of this writing (on Monday) I haven’t seen it confirmed whether Duren is playing or not, but either way the task remains the same. Don’t stop working on defense but also don’t foul, and try to outphysical him on the other end, also without fouling. The without fouling part becomes more important if Duren isn’t playing.
Pistons vs. Tyler Herro: Would be a great game to have Ausar Thompson back, alas, it will be a team effort for Detroit. With Butler sitting Herro is going to be heavily tasked with creating and scoring and the Pistons don’t have many great options. They need to at least fight to a draw, don’t let Herro score 40 points and win the game on his own.
Ivey vs. Staying Aggressive: Last time out was not just Ivey’s worst game of the season, but probably the first time all year he’s been genuinely bad. If he’s as good as he’s looked so far, he should bounce right back, even if its against a solid defensive unit.
Pistons vs. Trusting the long-ball: The Pistons continue to not shoot all that well from deep, but some of their better shooters have shown signs of possibly climbing out of early slumps, if guys like Tobias, Malik Beasly, and Simone Fontecchio can get going offensively it will fundamentally change how the Pistons offense has been working, no option but to shoot through it.
So in conclusion…
Run for the hills if:
Pistons big men are in foul trouble
The relentless defensive effort causes Pistons turnovers
Someone has to shoot free throws at the end of the game.
Wink knowingly at your friends if:
Adebayo struggles with the physicality a bit
Tyler Herro isn’t hitting everything
Jaden Ivey bounces back