Opponent Scouting: New Orleans Pelicans (15-8)
Tonight at 7:30 pm EST the Detroit Pistons will continue a road swing, this time in New Orleans against the Pelicans. The Pistons are of course on the second night of a back-to-back after beating the Heat last night, while the Pelicans are on two days of rest after beating the Nuggets.
The Them:
The Pelicans, featuring a mostly healthy team, are the team that was promised when Zion Williamson was drafted. They feature the league’s 6th best offense and, most surprisingly, the 3rd best defense in the league.
For tonight’s game Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones are expected out, DeVonte Graham is questionable (as of writing).
Brandon Ingram was scoring a bit less than in previous seasons, but he was shooting 46% from deep and lighting teams on fire as a secondary option behind Williamson. He does leave a hole in the offense but one that should be able to be filled with extra shots for Williamson and McCollum.
Zion Williamson still has whatever questions about his ability to stay healthy and in shape, but he has largely been healthy so far and he is borderline unstoppable. 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists doesn’t jump off the page as out of this world, even adding on elite efficiency of a TS% at 64% only makes that impressive but not incredible. Watching him though, it just seems wrong that a human that large can be that quick and bouncy.
A borderline unprecedented combination of power, finesse, and raw skill at such a young age. He’s a problem.
After Zion, CJ McCollum will be the #2 guy with Ingram out. McCollum is largely the same guy he was in Portland, a good shooter (though he’s struggling a bit with his shot this season) who can get to his spots and even though he is more shooter than slasher he does have enough athleticism and poise to get inside if you over play the jumper. McCollum also spends long stretches as the teams defacto point-guard and leads the team with 6 assists per game.
If he were to end up healthy this s where Herbert Jones would appear, an elite defender who doesn’t really shoot 3s well but can still get some points inside. But he’s listed as out.
So after those top guys is a somewhat eclectic mish-mash of players who play hard. Trey Murphy III is a 6’9 wing who is shooting better than 40% from deep in year 2, Dyson Daniel is basically the same thing except he’s still a rookie. Jonas Valanciunas is a good rebounder, protects the paint, and will give you buckets inside while still sporting a respectable jumper. Larry Nance Jr. Is an awesome defender and smart passer, Jose Alvarado defends and just scored a ton of points the other night. Willy Hernangomez is large and fairly skilled.
This team feels a bit rickety largely because you can’t get past the idea that the other shoe is going to drop and Zion will get hurt again, but this form of the team is excellent and a genuine contender.
Matchups to watch:
Stew vs. Zion: No one is really built to defend Zion, Isaiah Stewart is the Pistons only real hope. The problem is that Stewart’s best idea in these situations is to play way more physically than is necessary and try to throw the opponent off their game, but Zion is so strong and draws fouls so easily that I’m not sure that’s going to work well. To put it bluntly, the Pistons are not the type of team cut out to handle Zion.
Jaden Ivey vs. Going to the rack: Maybe he isn’t 100% but I’m going to keep saying this. Get aggressive and try to force your way inside. He can’t have more than half his attempts be threes every night.
Bench mob vs. Repeating: The Pistons bench won them the game last time out, that was predictable because the Heat bench isn’t very good. The Pellies have a good bench unfortunately and it is no longer a case of “The bench could carry us” and more a case of “the bench needs to play well to not get blown away.”
Pistons vs. Energy: Back-to-backs are hard, throw travel in between, and its harder. The Pellies are about as rested as NBA teams get. If the Pistons fall behind this could get ugly.
Pistons vs. Regression: They shot awesome from deep last night, and could come crashing back down to earth.
So in conclusion…
Run for the hills if:
Zion is getting all the way to the hoop whenever he wants.
The Pistons’ legs are gone
A hard regression in 3-point shooting comes for Detroit
Wink knowingly at your friends if:
Bojan is still on a tear
Zion keeps looking at Stew like “wtf is this guys deal?”
The Pistons get the first punch in to give them energy to fight through the game
Opportunities for me to look stupid:
Zion scores 30+
McCollum quietly has a poor game
Killian Hayes bounce-back
Pistons let Zion do his thing but keep everyone else in check on their way to victory.
Pistons 113 - Pellies 106.