About Last year:
Bit of a strange season for Bey. He took a larger role in the offense than his rookie season, taking 4 more shot attempts per game, playing 6 more minutes per game, and starting all 82 games. By a certain eye-test he took steps forward, doing more action off the dribble, generally being more involved in the offense.
And yet, he regressed in some areas as well. His per 36 numbers were almost identical, averaging just over an extra point and assist per 36 minutes than his rookie season. Meanwhile, his three-point shooting dropped from 38% to 34.6% and his overall efficiency dropped from a TS% of 56.7% to a horrendous 52.9%. It’s worth noting that his efficiency saw a slight uptick in the back-end of the season (51.8% pre all-star and 55.7% post all-star) but that is still a very poor downward trend for a second-year player. While part of this is that is a result of him trying to spread his wings beyond realistic capabilities, but to discover just how limited he is as a self-creator was still disappointing. One look at his shot-chart and it’s clear, that every time Saddiq Bey stepped inside the arc was a win for the defense.
Offense:
Once again referencing the above shot-chart. Bey’s strengths and weaknesses are laid bare. He is a capable shooter but limited at just about everything else.
Try “elite” shooter dumb dumb.
Did I stutter? Bey shot has shot 36.1% in his career from deep, over those two seasons the league average is 36%. Bey shoots a high volume to push him firmly above average into “capable” territory. But he is not more than that right now. He isn’t nailing pull-up threes that are unassisted, with nearly 90% of his long-guns being assisted on (for comparison, Cade Cunningham was assisted on 71% of his makes from deep) and he is utterly immobile off the ball.
The lack of off-ball mobility is something that I feel I can’t really clip with because it doesn’t stand out unless you watch a ton of his shots right in a row. So rather than make a montage that will still get accusations of picking bad clips, I’d encourage any skeptical readers to visit this link and press play on the video. That video player will work through every shot attempt Saddiq Bey took last season, and you tell me that it doesn’t suddenly stand out how little he moves. Other than occasional action of him starting on the wing and running to the top of the arc off of a screen, there just isn’t anything there.
You know who’s fault that really is
Yes Dwane Casey’s famous “motion” offense that doesn’t ever utilize any actual motion. Casey is a coach who actively makes players worse on offense, this is known. It still stands out how much Bey stands around. If you want to just make this one more reason to fire Dwane Casey then that’s fine, but either way, a guy who’s primary value is shooting should be working his way to space more often to make himself harder to guard and find easier looks from deep. Hopefully a full season playing alongside Cade will help, as knowing that the ball-handler will actually see you if you find space is a good motivator.
Other than the shooting, Bey made an attempt to move towards being more of a primary offensive option and it went pretty poorly. He fared better once Cunningham really got rolling but there isn’t much reason to hope for improvement here going forwards. Lack of offensive ceiling is why he wasn’t a lottery pick and that’s ok. It’s also worth noting that even if it didn’t work, its still a good thing he tried!
The work Bey put into it will make him better as a role-player in the future, he should be more comfortable attacking closeouts and there is still potential for him to occasionally work as an iso-guy when opponents try to stick small defenders on him. Bey wasn’t all that effective in any creation area, but he tended to be at his best when playing bully-ball.
With the offseason changes Bey should comfortably slide into a role-player offensive role and focus on being the best version of himself, rather than trying to force his way into primary creation.
Defense:
Big fat “meh” which is actually fine for a second-year player. Bey seems destined to fall into the classic zone of “Has decent size and is usually in the right place. Not athletic enough to really lock anyone down.” Bey is unlikely to get much better than this defensively, but he does seem to be firmly on the road to being a good team defender, which is important. A small step forward here this season would be welcome and likely be him as good as he will get.
To be clear, this is not meant as a dig. As time has gone on I've become more convinced that proverbial “wing-stoppers” are overrated and that simply having 5 competent defenders who don’t screw stuff up is hugely valuable. Big-men are impact defenders, outside of that just give me guys who do the right stuff and can’t get bullied too badly in mismatches. Bey seems ready to fit that mold.
Where does he fit in the rotation?
The only question here is likely what nominal position he will play. Outside of Cade Cunningham, he is likely the most sure-fire starter and 30+ minutes per game guy on the team. This is only furthered by the fact that the Pistons have suddenly found themselves short on big wing types. So he is almost certainly starting and playing heavy minutes he will likely open the season as the small forward, but he may end up playing large chunks at the 4 and if some things break oddly he could even end up being a nominal shooting-guard at times (though this is less likely since the Pistons have plenty of guards on the roster.)
The important thing is that he’s going to play and it’s a testament to his versatility and how easily his skill-set can slot into any lineup.
Where he fits on the floor:
Spotting up to clear space around ball-handlers, occasionally attacking close-outs and bodying up smaller guys when opposing teams think he’s a safer place to stash their point-guard than Cunningham or Ivey. He’s probably their defacto “wing stopper” guy defensively but everyone knows he’s overburdened there so we will look for him to just give it his best shot until he can slide more comfortably into the role of “guy who does the right stuff” defensive play.
Biggest Question for the season?
Can he take the step to elite shooting? There are other factors at play, its still possible he puts things together creating his own shot but this feels more attainable. Bey has good size to shoot over defenders and a quick trigger. If he can figure out how to improve some combination of his percentage, movement, and off-dribble threes he can go from “nice role-player” to “genuine offensive weapon” which is a big difference when the chips are down.
Bey is already a good shooter so the improvement in percentage doesn’t need to be huge, he certainly seems to work hard enough to get into the god-tier shape you need to be in to work as a “constant movement off the ball” player, and seems to have at least decent hoops IQ to work his way around the court and find space. Once again, if the Pistons had a coach with any realization of how modern offenses tend to work it would help, but that is waiting at least one more season.
You really hate Saddiq Bey
no I don’t
Every time you’ve brought him up you focus so much on negatives
It only seems that way because so many people are getting completely out of pocket about him. Saddiq Bey is a good player, exactly the type of player you want on a contending team. He would need to become a fundamentally different player to warrant a max contract or anything close. There are people who are suggesting he is 3rd best guy on a champion type of player.
I don’t want to write off Saddiq becoming that type of player, but he would need to make the type of fundamental change that rarely happens. Everyone loves to point out “Oh Jimmy Butler went from role-player to star!” but then don’t mention that they used his example for dozens and dozens of players that never made that jump.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE. THIS IS ALL JUST FINE.
The Pistons drafted Bey 19! They gave up an absurd amount to get that pick but still, a solid role player who is at worst a mid-rotation guy on a winning team is a good result for a non-lottery pick!
You’re getting #payKCP flashbacks, aren’t you?
Yes. It’s actually a solid comparison. For some reason, Pistons fans convinced themselves that KCP was a borderline star when in reality he’s a very good role player. Which is fine! KCP was played like 30mpg and was an integral piece of a champion! This is a perfectly acceptable outcome for Saddiq Bey because we have a bonafide star in Cunningham. So lay off the gas a bit so you don’t end up disappointed by a positive outcome.
Best-Case Scenario:
Last season was just a speed-bump for Bey. He’s learned what’s required to take on a more primary offensive role and he actually evolves into the perfect secondary option to play alongside Cade Cunningham. Comfortable off the ball and spacing the floor, but capable with the ball in his hands. He slots seemlessly behind Cunningham and Ivey for the “20 points per game on super efficiency” role as the 3rd guy on a Pistons team that hangs banners.
Worst-Case Scenario:
Last season was a sign of things to come. The shot is still fine but the percentage continues to lag behind where actual good shooters are. There’s still no effective parts of his game other than his shooting and without Jerami Grant around his defensive shortcomings stand out more. To make matters worse, friction is created as he thinks his struggles are tied to fewer shot attempts and a rift opens in the locker room. He eventually ends up out of the starting lineup and limps to the end of the season and we go into next Summer openly wondering about his future with the organization.
Official Prediction:
The shot improves markedly and he shoots closer to 40% from deep. There’s nothing else added to his game, the shot creation is mostly shelved and no extra off-ball movement will happen till Casey is gone. But he further solidifies himself as an ideal wing role-player. Bey spends a lot of time filling in at the 4 and it actually goes pretty well, Bey is the perfect “multi-positional guy who shoots like crazy” player.
Going forward Bey is not the guy who decides if this rebuild works out (that’s in the hands of Cade Cunningham) but if it does work out he will be a big part of it.
EYE PERSONALLY would call Saddiq more "streaky" than "capable" as a shooter; he had 25 games last season with 1 or fewer made threes and 10 games with 5 or more made threes (including the 51 point night where he made 10 of 'em).
He'll get up 7 threes a night. Some nights he will made 2, some night he will make 4. But either way, you have to play him like he'll make 4, which is what matters.