Trade season primer.
Trade season is officially upon us and the Pistons seem fairly likely to be active. So let’s lay out where the Pistons stand with regard to their roster. In the end, this basically became an imitation of Bill Simmons’ trade-value column. That wasn’t the initial intention but hey, if it works it works. One difference though is that these players are not put into any particular order. The order of the tiers means nothing.
Tier 1: Purely salary filler
Rodney McGruder
Cory Joseph
Nerlens Noel
Kevin Knox
Pretty straightforward, this group of guys have effectively no trade value but can be used as filler in any trade. McGruder and Joseph are the lowest guys here but it isn’t like the Pistons would need to include a couple of 2nd round picks to get rid of them because they are cheap and expiring. If a larger deal coalesces most teams would be fine to take on McGruder or Joseph as filler.
You could make a case for one of Noel or Knox to possibly be a half-step above here. Noel isn’t in the rotation mostly because the Pistons want to play the young guys and the last time he was healthy he was a starter for a playoff team. Knox has shown signs of life and has a skill set that would easily fit into the back end of anyone’s rotation if he proves this is for real.
The flip side wins out though, a month of decent play from Knox does not eliminate how awful he has been his whole career and that he is still mostly out of the rotation for the NBA’s worst team, Noel has been heavily injured for the last couple of seasons and is also pricier than the other three guys in this tier.
Of these 4 I would guess the Pistons are actively shopping Noel. Noel is a vet who wants to play and if the Pistons don’t find a trade I wouldn’t be shocked if they bought him out at this point, which further depletes what little value he would have. Joseph and McGruder have no value so no point in actively shopping them, in addition, they are clearly the veteran leadership on the team which the organization places some value on.
The only guy whom there would likely be any hesitation to include in a trade is Knox. Because he’s under contract for next season and has fit in well when he’s gotten playing time which means there is a world where he is a worthwhile asset, whether that means trading him later on for some actual return or trying to keep him around as a longer-term bench piece. Knox obviously isn’t something you are planning around, but the Pistons would be wise to try and use any of these other 3 as salary filler before allowing Knox to go.
Tier 2: We are not making the calls but we are definitely listening.
Isaiah Livers
Isaiah Stewart
Killian Hayes
This is where some of you probably go “wtf are you talking about” but that’s pretty inevitable in a piece like this. Important to emphasize that the Pistons are probably not actively shopping any of these three because all three are young and seem to be on decent trajectories.
Then why would they definitely be listening?
For starters, these are three of the five players for whom the Pistons need to make long-term decisions in the next year or so. Hayes, Livers, Stewart, Knox, and Bey will all be expiring next season. Because none of those guys have popped into stardom maybe you can just keep them all, but history says that they won’t. We will touch on Bey later, but that reality means that these three guys have to be genuinely considered if someone makes an offer. The biggest issue here though is that none of these three likely have much value beyond a flyer. All three guys seem well on a trajectory to being rotation guys on a good team, but likely at best 5th starters and more realistically mid-rotation backups.
Hayes has turned a corner since getting into the starting lineup 32 games ago but the fact that 12 points, 3 boards, and 6.8 assists with 41/35/81 shooting splits, which is good for a TS% of just 49.9% mark a corner being turned speaks to how god-awful he was prior to that. Even if you only include his improved stretch since mid-November he’s still projecting as a solid backup who’s a defensive specialist.
Isaiah Livers is, in theory, a great guy with a valuable skill set but he doesn’t do anything other than shoot on offense and is still unproven in the long run. Injuries have been a huge issue already which doesn’t bode great for him.
Isaiah Stewart has regressed to beneath 33% from deep on the season which is ugly and effectively eliminates the one useful offensive thing he can possibly bring to the table and he’s only "pretty good” on defense, not great. As a center, he remains undersized and not athletic enough and as a 4 he gets into trouble anytime he gets stuck on a skilled wing player. His defense has real value, enough to keep him in a rotation, but it isn’t nearly enough to overcome his offensive liabilities to justify major minutes on a team that’s worth anything.
What if he finds his shooting form back?
It would be a positive thing for Stewart’s career, but even if he shoots 37% from deep he’s basically Anthony Tolliver. To be clear, I loved me some Anthony Tolliver. Guys who are plus shooters and plus defenders have real value, but that still isn’t enough to be a priority as you look to turn the corner out of a rebuild, especially when the 19-year-old rookie is already clearly the best big on the roster.
To put it more succinctly. All three guys are trending toward being worthwhile NBA players which is why the Pistons are not the ones making the calls, but none of them project to be the sort of impact guys that actually matter that much in a rebuild because there are plenty of vets you could potentially bring in to do the same thing. So there isn’t any desire to ship them off on the Pistons’ end, but if other teams come calling or try to slip them in as sweetener in a larger deal the Pistons have to consider it at least.
Tier 3: We are hanging up immediately
Jaden Ivey
Cade Cunningham
Just putting them here to get it out of the way. These are your two cornerstones. The only guys you would trade them for are other guys that are definitely not coming on the market. like yeah, I’d trade Cade for Jah, Zion, or Luka. But that ain’t happening anyways. Both Cade and Ivey have not come out with the sort of gangbusters to put them into the truly untouchable territory, but for now, you don’t even think about trading either of these guys unless something truly preposterous is happening. Also Cade is clearly a step above Ivey for whatever that is worth here.
Tier 4: We are hanging up, but might listen for a moment just to be certain
Jalen Duren
Duren has been immense as a rookie. The fact that a teenager walked onto an NBA roster with a decent number of bigs and took all of 30 games to clearly establish himself as the best big on the roster says something even if the competition isn’t exactly stiff. Duren is already very good and has clear spots for growth that one would imagine will come for him, in addition, he fills a clear roster hole for the team and should be a clean fit with the Pistons’ core guards plus just about whoever else the Pistons add in the future.
The only reason that he is not in the previous tier is that Ivey and Cunningham have the potential to be the 1 and 2 guys on a contender. As good as Duren is and as high as his potential is, he isn’t that. It’d be shocking if any trade became available that you’d feel comfortable trading Duren but for instance, if the Pelicans decided Brandon Ingram was redundant and proposed a trade centered around Duren you’d at least have to listen, if the Raptors decided Duren was the prize they wanted for OG Anunoby you are definitely giving it consideration. Now, those are not likely things to happen, but effectively the level of guy that you’d have to consider trading Duren for are guys who could theoretically come available.
Tier 5: We are giving them to the highest bidder:
Bojan Bogdanovic
Alek Burks
Both guys are vets who are playing great ball this year while having skill sets that clearly fit into the rotation of just about any good team. Technically the Pistons could hold onto either guy for the long run, especially Bojan who now has a longer contract. But in the end, both guys are old enough that it isn’t really worth keeping them and it’s unlikely either guy will have more value as a trade asset than they do right now. Theoretically, you could wait till the draft but waiting for that only gives more chances for either guy to get hurt or go cold from the field and the fact that Burks has a team option for next season makes him extra attractive for a good team who can take him as a rental this season but then get flexibility for next year.
In addition, this season is more than a lost cause at this point already, so trading these two is a decent way to fully bottom out this year, as painful as the team would be to watch without their collective shot-making on this team. Basically, get assets for two guys you brought in for basically nothing, bottom all the way out this season, and head into the Summer with plenty of draft capital and cap space.
Tier 6: We should trade him but might not be willing to let go.
Hamidou Diallo
So believe it or not I originally started this piece way back at the end of December and it got delayed because of the whole deal where my wife got hit by a truck. At that time I had Diallo in the “salary filler” with the caveat that he maybe deserved to be a notch above. That has changed at this point. I’m still not sure how much value Diallo has because he still doesn’t shoot, is a negative defender, and doesn’t pass. I have no idea what happens if you put him on a team with a pulse. But at this point, he has been so good coming off the bench for the Pistons that it will be hard to trade him without getting back something real, which most teams are unlikely to offer because of the reasons stated above.
The thing that complicates Diallo’s situation is that he is one of just three unrestricted free agents this Summer (the others being McGruder and Joseph) and I haven’t heard any indications about how Diallo feels about Detroit long-term. Also complicating this is that if you trade away some of the vets and that creates a bigger role for Diallo and he plays well you may simply be giving him a chance that makes it harder to retain him this Summer. It’s also entirely possible that this is merely a mirage of “decent stats for a terrible team” so there is no reason to hold out for anything and if you can get any sort of return it’s a win.
AND YET. Diallo has been one of the few genuine bright spots for this team and I can’t shake the feeling that those slashing drives might actually hold up to more scrutiny. It might not be worth exploring since who knows the odds of him being in Detroit next season, but if the Pistons do trade Burks and Bojan, giving Diallo the keys to the bench mob could be the one thing that keeps the Pistons even remotely worth watching. Diallo is comfortably the biggest flip I’ve had on a Pistons player since I started doing this whole deal and at this point, I’d rather risk losing him for nothing than potentially letting a late-blooming electric scorer leave for a 2nd round pick or two.
Tier 7: The other team is hanging up
Marvin Bagley
Wasn’t sure where to put him before the injury but the injury solidifies him here. Even when healthy his contract is probably too big for a guy who is awful defensively, doesn’t space the floor, and has thrown five good passes in his entire career. The fact that this year will be one more season where he can’t stay healthy means that no one will have any interest in him. It will likely be the 4th time in his 5 years he plays less than 50 games at this point and the most he's managed was 62 in his rookie season.
The fact that he’s here really does solidify how bizarre the decision to give him that contract was. It is totally unclear what the upside was for Detroit at the time, even if Bagley had magically started to stay healthy and conquer some of his on-court issues he ends up being worth the contract, not a bargain, while the down-side is a bad contract sitting on your books into an offseason where you need to start paying guys.
The only positive here is that his contract isn’t prohibitively large even if it’s bad. No one is trading for Bagley but there is a chance he could be used as filler in a larger deal without needing to throw in too much of a sweetener. So while $ 12 million doesn’t make him a completely toxic asset, there is no doubt at this point that he is a negative one.
Making calls but might not pull the trigger if the price isn’t right:
Saddiq Bey
Yeah. Bey has found some footing in the past couple of weeks, but this season, off a quietly not-great sophomore effort last year, has been a borderline disaster for Bey. The stats have largely regressed, shooting just 33% from deep, he’s a total non-passer at this point, and the defense has never progressed to anything beyond mediocre. At the end of the day though, the stats are still passable, 14.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game while shooting 40/33.5/85 which combines for a TS% of 54.6% isn’t good but it isn’t terrible even when combined with mediocre defense. All he needs is a couple of hot weeks from beyond the arc and the stats look perfectly fine. The bigger issue is that he clearly has become completely lost in the sauce despite playing for the worst team in the NBA. If his inability to effectively fit into a cohesive offense is a problem in an offense as in need of his basic skill-set as the Pistons, then how would he fit on a team that is actually good. Some people have argued that he is a guy who needs more volume to stay in rhythm but he isn’t good enough to justify significant volume.
As of now, he’s the odd man out of the non-core youngsters for me. His skillset is theoretically the most valuable and he’s got some track record which means he should have at least some value, but it has often felt like both Saddiq and the Pistons would be better off if he was moved.
All that said, he’s still got another year on his rookie deal, and theoretically, his skillset is still one the Pistons have a need for. So even though the Pistons should be actively searching out deals for him, if the offers suck (which they might) then they should just hold onto him and hope he improves.
What do we think the Pistons will actually do?
Mostly chalk. Bojan and Burks will be traded for some combination of late firsts/2nds/flyers on young guys. The most I think you will get back for Bojan is maybe a mid-first-rounder. Noel will likely get included in one of those deals as an add-on or get moved to a contender for effectively nothing (like a 2nd round pick swap or something like that). I think they keep Diallo around and despite some talk around Bey they end up giving him the rest of the season to figure his game out.
HOWEVA
One thing that I think is being overlooked is the possibility that the Pistons make a bolder move. To be clear, my guess would still be the above, and I don’t think the Pistons are going star-hunting, but I think there’s a real chance they get into a big deal.
This is year 3 for Weaver and it’s really year 3.5/4 of the rebuild. they can’t suck next season. “can’t suck” doesn’t mean they need to be contenders or even make the playoffs. But you can’t go a 5th straight year winning less than 30 games. Weaver and the entire front office know this, so they could make a move of win now/win next-season. Think of early SVG days when they traded good vets who were helping the team for Reggie Jackson and Tobias Harris at consecutive deadlines.
Another factor here, which is tied into the whole not sucking next season idea is that even if the Pistons have more than max cap space, who are they going to spend it on? The free agent class next Summer is not good. The biggest name is Kyrie Irving who has obvious baggage concerns even if you didn’t already have too many young guards as it is. Ditto for James Harden if he declines his option. Even if you don’t take fit into account it isn’t clear there is any free agents this offseason who are even close to max guys. D’Angelo Russell? Nikola Vucevic? Harrison Barnes? Myles Turner? A Jerami Grant reunion? There are plenty of good players who would make effective additions to next year’s team but if they want to get a genuine difference-maker, especially one that makes sense with their current young core, they probably need to do it through a trade.
The most popular name here has been John Collins and for good reason. Collins cleanly fits what the Pistons need and the Pistons have the right combination of vets/youngish guys to at least make the Hawks think about it. Rui Hachimura has been floated recently as well. He isn’t nearly as sexy a name as Collins but is similarly a nice fit for what the Pistons need.
Outside of those reported suitors, I would keep an eye on the Kings and Warriors as possible trade partners. The Kings are good for the first time in forever and their eyes are inevitably getting big enough they may think its worth giving a big haul for some of the vets, I’d also still keep an eye on Golden State. The Pistons have no real need for Wiseman anymore which makes the Warriors less attractive but still. I also wouldn’t sleep on the Sixers or Grizzlies who both feel like they are possibly one move away from being front-runners in their conferences.
Do you think they could end up trading for someone that is a genuine vet?
Less likely. If they go for a bigger trade they don’t need to be on a rookie deal but I’d be surprised if they traded for someone older than 26. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked. Once again, I think there will be real pressure on the front office to win more games next season so I could see a world where suddenly someone like Marcus Morris is in Detroit because if the Pistons want to be any good next year getting some genuine two-way forwards is probably their top priority. The main reason why I’d be surprised by that sort of move at the deadline is that there are enough solid veteran wings available this Summer that the Pistons should be able to get a decent option.
What’s your confidence level they will make good moves at this deadline?
Fairly high. I have not always been impressed by Weaver’s work since taking over but this past Summer was his best and the path for trading some of the vets for decent return is so clear and obvious that even a bad GM could probably pull it off. In addition, even though the organization knows they can’t suck next season, I also don’t think there is huge pressure to be more than fighting for the play-in so I doubt it seems unlikely they do anything genuinely stupid. I think the worst outcome is if they just hold onto all their guys and ride out this season, which would be disappointing and in my opinion the wrong move, but it is defensible that keeping Bojan and Burks is the right move because, once again, the Pistons don’t want to suck next season and the free-agent class is booty.